Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/11/19)
This is the second to last article before the NBA all-star break so let’s make it a good one and really nail our spots tonight. My core has been on fire of late so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
Top GPP Plays:
- Chris Paul: Chris Paul is one of my favorite overall plays on this slate and would have been my cover photo for this article had I not had issues uploading the image to the site. Paul is projected to be under 20% owned tonight and provides a perfect pivot to Zach LaVine who likely will be much more popular and is only $100 cheaper on Draftkings. Harden does not carry an injury designation today but there have been murmurs he is hurt after seen icing his shoulder this past Saturday. If this is the case he could end up giving up some ball-handling + shot opportunities to Paul who has been playing great since coming back from injury averaging an extremely efficient 1.27 FP/minute. This is actually a pace up game for the Rockets and given Paul’s recent play in addition for the potential of additional opportunities I am all over him and have him ranked above LaVine creating a great leverage situation by getting overexposed to Paul tonight.
- Jamal Murray: Murray is another guy providing a lot of leverage in this LaVine/Paul price range. If for whatever reason you are not comfortable playing Paul tonight or cannot get up to him, or want to play both of the two, Jamal Murray is $600 at 6.3k on Draftkings which is much lower than the 7k+ average we’ve seen him for most of this year. Not only is this a pace up game for the Nuggets against Miami, but Murray has posted back to back 40+ DK point games only to see his price remain at the lowest floor since October. I’m easily locking in Murray tonight and suggest you buy buy buy at this price tag.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jordan Clarkson: Another leverage situation comes up at the shooting guard position where Tim Hardaway is coming in as the projected lock chalk tonight on Draftkings at 5k. For just $200 more if you can get up to Clarkson you’ll give yourself a massive edge over the field where Clarkson offers nearly identical floor/ceiling projections for half the ownership. This is a spot where paying the $200 is worth the decrease in ownership even if you could get similair projections for $200 less. Another game theory take that has become crucial in today’s NBA DFS where players are extremely sharp and chalk runs rampant.
- Nicolas Batum: Similair to the situation at point guard, my second option at shooting guard is a pivot off both Hardaway and Clarkson, where you could choose to fade the two and play Batum or mix and match. Both strategies are likely + EV tonight. Batum is the cheapest of the three coming in at 4.9k where he has exceeded value in 10 of his last 11 contests. Since the start of this efficient run, his price has only come up $300 which is a bit ridiculous. He’s back to seeing heavy minutes in this Hornets rotation and should easily go to exceed value again tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Danilo Gallinari: Gallinari should be locked into his regular minutes in his third game back from injury after playing close to 30 minutes last game. After the trade of Tobias Harris, Gallinari’s upside has not been seen or realized by DFS players as he projects for under 10% ownership tonight. Gallinari should be a regular in high rebound games for an undersized Clippers squad and should be leaned on as the first option in this starting lineup. 6k is a bargain for Gallinari if he plays over 32 minutes tonight like he is projected for.
- Trey Lyles: Pivot SZN. Dion Waiters will likely be the chalk tonight at SG?SF after popping off for a 41 DK point game last night for the Heat. While I do like him tonight it only makes sense to take a shot at Lyles in some deeper GPPs where he will likely be 1/5 the ownership. With Millsap down, Lyles is getting an expanded role in this rotation and is taking full advantage posting four games straight of excceeding his DK price. Lyles is a lock to exceed value if he plays over 22 minutes tonight which almost every projection system I’ve looked at has him slated for.
Top GPP Plays:
- Serge Ibaka: Pivot SZN continues at the PF position where Larry Nance will likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate. Ibaka has shown a more dynamic role in the Raptors offense this season and gets one of the juiciest matchups on the board against a Nets team that does not have the size to match up, up front with Ibaka and Siakam. In his past five games, Ibaka has posted a usage rate over 20% and I expect the trend to continue for the Raptors big man tonight in a great matchup. I actually prefer Ibaka tonight compared to Siakam who is $400 more.
- Blake Griffin: One of the guys I see myself paying up for tonight with a lot of low-mid tier value tonight is Blake Griffin. As I mentioned a few slates ago Griffin has been on par with his season production which had him priced over 10k at one point. Now only at 9k, Griffin is locked in for minutes in the high 30s with usage rates spiking over 30% occassionally as the Pistons lean on their star in their push to make the playoffs in the East. The loss of Markieff Morris has Washington extremely thin up front and Griffin should be able to dominate against a less talented/under-sized Jeff Green (who is also questionable with a hip injury). Whether it’s Green or Parker, expect Griffin to dominate.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jarrett Allen: Jarrett Allen will likely be the largest player on the court tonight although he may end up getting some Marc Gasol with the 2nd unit. It’s going to be hard to leave Allen off the court for too long tonight and his offensive game has been looking better of late albeit in more limited minutes. Allen’s ceiling remains over 40 DK points and has a good chance of hitting that point if Atkinson extends him for over 30 minutes tonight which is possible with a tough matchup against Siakam/Ibaka/Gasol.
- Karl-Anthony Towns: It’s a day to pay up for a big man where I can’t see myself playing a potentially hurt Harden or an overpriced Giannis/Jokic. Towns has been ripping apart the league of late averaging over 1.6 FP/min and now gets one of the best matchups for centers, especially with the departure of Tobias Harris. Projected starter Ivica Zubac has a defensive rating barely over 100 with the Lakers this season and shouldn’t be able to keep up with Towns versatility. 10k is a steal for him tonight where I love him for over 50 DK points.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage