NBA DFS 2/11/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Washington Wizards have been playing at an above average pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking eighth in the NBA in pace through 56 games. They get a matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who currently rank 24th in the league in pace. Washington has found some offensive success this season, ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating, although Detroit ranks ninth in the league in defensive rating. The Wizards are +5.5 point underdogs in a game set at 224 points, but they still own an implied total of 109.3 points tonight.
Tomas Satoransky has been ruled out for tonight, which opens the door for other players to take his minutes and usage. Chasson Randle is the most likely player to draw the start, and he could potentially see 30+ minutes tonight. Randle is only averaging 6.1 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists (11.9 DK points) in 15.3 minutes per game through 26 games. With that being said, he has played 25 minutes in two of his last six games, scoring 26.75 and 19.25 DK points in those games. Randle should be doing the majority of the ball-handling for Washington, and he still comes with an extremely low price tag. Randle makes an extremely safe option on the slate tonight. Bradley Beal is another player that will see a bit of increased usage with Satoransky out. He has been playing well recently, averaging 27.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.8 steals (46.9 DK points) in 36.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 45+ DK points in each of his last four games, including two games with 50+ DK points. Beal has surprisingly struggled against Detroit this season, but his increased touches will only add to his upside. Jabari Parker saw extended minutes in his last game because of an injury to Jeff Green, and Parker will make an elite option again tonight if Green is out. In two games with his new team, Parker is averaging 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 2.0 steals (41.0 DK points) in 28.6 minutes per game. He was able to score 39.25 and 42.75 DK points in those games, while only playing 23 minutes in his first game with the team. Parker can still be considered if Green is active, but he comes with a bit more risk then. Overall, Parker is a player that needs to be used in all leagues on FanDuel, as his price tag is entirely too low. He’s priced up by a significant margin on DraftKings, though.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Milwaukee Bucks are another team that has been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking fifth in the NBA in pace thus far. Tonight, they get a matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank only 22nd in the league in pace through 56 games. While Chicago has been slowing the pace down, they only rank 24th in the NBA in defensive rating this season. On the other hand, Milwaukee ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating. The Bucks are -12 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points, giving them the highest implied total of the night at 119.8 points.
Giannis Antetokounmop has been an elite option for Milwaukee throughout the entire 2018 season. He has been playing at a high level recently, as well, averaging 31.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 steals (58.8 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, including four games with 60+ DK points. Furthermore, Antetokounmpo has scored 60+ DK points in each of his last three games. He’s averaging 59.5 DK points against Chicago this season, and they simply don’t have anyone that will be able to guard him. Eric Bledsoe continues to play at an extremely high level, as he’s averaging 17.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.2 steals (41.3 DK points) in 28.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 38+ DK points in five of his last six games, while flashing 50+ DK point upside. Bledsoe has also found plenty of success against Chicago this season, averaging 35.3 DK points in 29.2 minutes per game against them. There are a few other options that can be considered for this stack, but I’m siding with the price tag of D.J. Wilson. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 6.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (18.0 DK points) in 23.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Wilson has been far from consistent, but he does come with quite a bit of upside. He recently scored 30.25 DK points in only 22 minutes against the Toronto Raptors. Wilson’s minutes will also be secure in a potential blowout, and he may even benefit from that. If you don’t feel comfortable with Wilson, Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez can be considered here.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Minnesota Wolves and Los Angeles Clippers are two teams that have been playing at an above average pace this season. These two teams currently rank 12th and ninth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Minnesota has found some offensive success through 55 games, ranking 14th in the league in offensive rating. The same can’t be said for Los Angeles, as they rank only 19th in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Wolves are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 231.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 118 points on this slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns will like be the highest owned player for Minnesota, but he could go under-owned still. He has been playing well recently, averaging 29.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.0 block (54.9 DK points) in 35.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He gets an elite matchup, as Los Angeles has been one of the worst defenses in the NBA against centers this season. In their only matchup, Towns scored 52.5 DK points, and we could see similar results tonight. Dario Saric is an extremely volatile player, but he comes with tremendous upside. He has caught fire recently, scoring 30 and 39.25 DK points in two of his last three games. He also saw only 21 minutes in the one game, showing that he can dominate in limited minutes. He’s expected to play around 25 minutes tonight, and Saric still comes with an extremely low price tag. He’s another big man that makes Towns price tag a bit more reasonable. Andrew Wiggins is currently questionable, along with the majority of the Minnesota guards tonight. If he’s able to suit up, he’ll take on a major role in the offense, as Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, and Jeff Teague all continue to deal with injuries. Wiggins has looked elite in his last two games, scoring 51 and 47.75 DK points in those games. This game will be fast paced and high scoring, which is the type of game that Wiggins tends to dominate. He still comes with a surprisingly low price tag, but that’s because of the risk involved with his play. The Wolves feature an extremely risky rotation tonight, but they also come with quite a bit of upside.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
There are a few mispriced guards tonight, but Clarkson makes the most sense here. He has finally found consistent minutes, and he’s averaging 17.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists (29.1 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 28+ DK points in five of his last six games, while flashing 40 DK point upside.
Clarkson will be locked into 30 minutes once again tonight. He gets a great matchup against the New York Knicks, who have struggled against guards throughout the season. In their only matchup this season, Clarkson scored 37.25 DK points in 34 minutes against New York. Tehy likely won’t have anyone that will be able to slow Clarkson down, and he makes an elite option tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Chriss has been playing bigger minutes for the Cleveland Cavaliers recently, and his production has increased, as well. On the season, he’s averaging 6.6 DK points in only 8.2 minutes per game, but he has scored 16.25 and 23 DK points in 24 and 23 minutes over his last two games. They were the only two games that he has seen 20+ minutes on the season, although he has displayed the ability to produce more than 1.0 DK point per minute at times this season.
Chriss is expected to play minutes in the mid-20s once again tonight. He gets a matchup against the New York Knicks, who have struggled against big men this season. With that being said, they feature new roster additions after their trade with the Dallas Mavericks. Chriss is the minimum price on DraftKings, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues because of that.
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