It’s been some pretty bad slates in a row from Sunday-Today so I’m going to keep rolling out my top GPP plays per position. There will be more content for tonight’s main slate unlike Sunday/Monday on Draftkings so this will not be my core. These will be my TOP GPP pivots per position that you should mix into some chalkier/obvious plays on the slate. You can access my CORE GPP Lineup by signing up for an NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top PG Plays:
- Kyle Lowry: So, Kyle Lowry is going to be chalky tonight but to me his ownership isn’t giong to be where it should as I am considering him the LOCK of the slate. Kawhi Leonard is out but I was extemely high on Lowry during my early AM research before the news broke. First off, the Kings are playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA this season averaging 104.24 possessions per game. They have been horrid defending the guard position lately as well ranking 2nd worst in the NBA with a defensive rating of 57.8. While Lowry will be popular tonight he could easily be overshadowed by some big names like Lillard, Westbrook, Doncic, Fox, and Booker. People are going to look at Lowry’s decline this season and stay away from him tonight. This 7.6k price tag is nothing and Lowry’s ceiling is over 60 DK points tonight. He is going to be on 100% of my lineups.
Top SG Plays:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic: Bogdan is a guy I am consistently high on as his low 5k range price tag really doesn’t capture his true upside on any slate. Shooting guard is an extremely weak position today and I’m going to take some shots on guys with upside and risk the floor that comes along with it. Bogdan flashed his ceiling yesterday against the Nets where he went for over 50DK points against the Nets and should be in line for another 28-32 minutes tonight against the Raptors where the Kings will need a big game from him in order to compete. He has an elite usage rate with the second unit that can top out as high as 33%. Bogdan does have a floor of about 4x but I’m more than willing to take that on for the upside he has on a 4 game slate like we have tonight.
Top SF Plays:
- Josh Jackson: Josh Jackson is going to be very low-owned at the SF position where virtually everyone will be playing Paul George/Warren/Harris/Wiggins/Doncic. Some will pay down for Oubre or Bridges and while I don’t mind Bridges, I can’t pay 5.6k for Oubre in what essentially is the same spot for Jackson for 1.5k less. Jackson is going to see slighlty less minutes than Oubre but I do not agree with the minutes projections I’ve seen on the two tonight with Oubre breaking 30 and Jackson barely getting over 20. Jackson is a very high usage player on the floor and if he breaks 25 minutes tonight which I think is very possible, he could easily go for 35 DK points at single digit ownership which would be huge for us in our tournament lineups.
Top PF Plays:
- Marvin Bagley: Bagley is definitely a step down from some of the elite plays at the PF position that will hard to be get off of but will be extremely chalky. With that being said in a deeper GPP I don’t mind taking a shot at Bagley who has plenty of oppurtunity to post a 7-8x game. Bagley has seen 5 straight games with a usage rate > 20% and I don’t see that trend not continuing tonight. We saw in late November when Bagley gets 25+ mintues per game he can routinely go for over 40 DK points. I’m hoping Bagley gets extended time on the floor tonight coming off a blowout win against Brooklyn where now they will need to matchup up with a bigger team that featureds Siakam and Ibaka. I see Bagley over 25 minutes tonight with a usage rate over 20%. This makes him a fantastic GPP play.
Top Center Plays:
- Steven Adams: It was tight for me here between Steven Adams and Willie Cauley-Stein but I’m giving the edge to Adams considering I’m already over-exposed to two other Kings players. In addition, Adams is projected for 6-7 more minutes on the floor than WCS and although they are not a similair FP/min producer, vegas is much higher on the Thunder today and Adam’s fantasy projections edge out WCS’s even though WCS has a higher projected usage rate. Adam’s price is the lowest we’ve seen in a while and he won’t hurt your lineups at this price with a floor of 27 over his last 10 games.
Written By: Robert Viafora