We had another rough night last night. Bruce Zimmermann looked outstanding with 4 strikeouts over the first 3 innings. He didn’t record any more throughout the game to hit the over, though. It was a moot point regardless, as Joe Ryan was touched up by one of the MLB’s worst offenses. Overall, it’s a loss. We’re shifting sports and platforms for the day, though. Below, I’ll outline my favorite bet for the Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns game on PrizePicks!
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2/2 Power Play – Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns
Luka Doncic over 49.5 PRA
Doncic absolutely dominated the Phoenix Suns in their first game of the series, posting 45 points with 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Overall, he recorded 65 points, rebounds, and assists, which is 15 higher than he’d need to beat this number.
It was clear Doncic was taking over the game, as he attempted 30 shots, 11 three-pointers, and 14 free throws. If the Dallas Mavericks want any chance at keeping these games close, Doncic will need to play up to his ceiling.
He’s their facilitator as well, recording 18 potential assists in the first game of the series. This resulted in 8 assists, and we could see a triple-double if the other shooters can become slightly more efficient.
Last, Doncic posted 12 rebounds on 19 rebound chances. He led Dallas by a wide margin in this category, and there’s very little reason to believe he won’t attack the basket once again.
The only major concern with Doncic is that there’s no secret that he’s the star. After dominating in the first game, Phoenix could potentially put multiple players on him to force someone else to beat them. With that being said, they comfortably won the first contest, so I’m expecting they stick with a similar strategy.
Deandre Ayton over 30.5 PRA
Ayton’s coming off of a disappointing game to start the series, yet he posted 33 points, rebounds, and assists. The majority of that was through scoring, as he ended with only 8 rebounds and without a single assist.
Ayton took 20 shots over 33 minutes in the first game of this series, scoring 25 points. He’s been scoring at a higher clip throughout the playoffs, and there’s very little reason to believe an undersized Mavericks team will slow him down in the paint.
With that being said, we don’t need to solely rely on scoring for production. Surprisingly, Ayton only saw 12 rebound chances in his last game against Dallas. He grabbed 8 rebounds or 75% of his chances. In the only 2 other matchups between these teams this season, Ayton averaged 22.5 rebound chances per game. He averaged 15 rebounds per game in those contests, and we should see him get back to double digits tonight.
If that’s the case, we’d need less scoring than his last game, and Ayton’s posted 19+ points in each of his last 5 contests. This is the type of matchup he can thrive in, and this number is set a bit low for a player that averaged a double-double on the season.
Bet Luka Doncic over 49.5 PRA and Deandre Ayton over 30.5 PRA to win 3x
