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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Tuesday 03/24/2020

What is up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time if you are new and finally getting into Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 12 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as me being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up.

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see who the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Ben Simmons 84.4

 SG: D’Angelo Russell 82.3

 SF: Jae Crowder 64.1

 PF: Bam Adebayo 70.3

 C: Karl Anthony Towns 83

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Shake Milton 14.2x and Aaron Holiday 12.8x

 SG: Furkan Korkmaz 13.7x and Gary Payton II 13.3x

 SF: Juancho Hernangomez 13.74x and Jae Crowder 13.08x

 PF: Michael Porter Jr 13.29x and Trey Lyles 13.28x

 C: Aron Baynes 15.4x and Moritz Wagner 14.1x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play and which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Ricky Rubio (68.1 fantasy points)

SG: D’Angelo Russell (82.3 fantasy points), Devin Booker (68.1 fantasy points)

SF: Jae Crowder (64.1 fantasy points), Marcus Morris (60.5 fantasy points)

PF: Bam Adebayo (70.3 fantasy points), Jarrett Allen (63.7 fantasy points)

C: Aron Baynes (64.7 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 626.2 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.2 (Landry Shamet), 1Q: 43.05, Median: 51.00, Mean: 51.57, 3Q: 56.67, 84.4

  1. Ben Simmons84.4
  2. Kyrie Irving73.1
  3. Ricky Rubio: 68.1
  4. Jamal Murray: 67.8
  5. Spencer Dinwiddie: 62.5

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.57 (Landry Shamet), 1Q: 8.895, Median: 10.080, Mean: 10.258, 3Q: 11.188, Max: 14.420(Kyrie Irving)

  • There is no Point Guard that falls under the over $6000 with an SD less than 10. The closest guy tonight is Spencer Dinwiddie (10.62). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for. He also has a better 5x and 6x% than both Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving.
  • Kyrie Irving has the worst SD of all point guards tonight with 14.42. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
  • There is only one guy over 12 SD that is under $4000. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.3).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 34% (Emmanuel Mudiay), 1Q: 47%, Median: 50%, Mean: 49%, 3Q: 52.75%, Max: 55% (Mike Conley)

6x%: Min: 17% (Ben Simmons), 1Q: 28.25%, Median: 31.5%, Mean: 30.69%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 38% (Ish Smith)

  • It doesn’t look like I will be paying up for PG tonight. At least for someone over $9000. The two guys we have above $9000 are Ben Simmons and Kyrie IrvingBoth guys have great ceilings but their odds of hitting 5x (41% and 43%) and 6x (17% and 20%) just aren’t worth it to me.
  • There are 4 players with a 5x% of 55%. (Malcolm Brogdon, Ish Smith, Mike Conley and Derrick White). These 3 are then the top value point guards on the slate. Ish Smith also has the highest 6x% 7x% 8x% 9x% and 10x% of the 3 guys.
  • NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
    Mike Conley460024.355.741.79.760.550.370.21
    Ish Smith450023.873.256.610.10.550.380.23
    Derrick White430022.633.750.99.230.550.370.21
    Malcolm Brogdon630032.87257.111.270.550.330.16
    Markelle Fultz510026.210.751.28.150.530.290.12
    Shabazz Napier450023.454.552.311.330.530.380.24
    Jamal Murray640032.881.267.811.60.530.320.15
    Reggie Jackson450023.086.945.510.940.520.360.22
    D.J. Augustin400020.413.247.19.260.520.350.21

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 39.7 (Tyler Herro), 1Q: 43.40, Median: 47.75, Mean: 53.13, 3Q: 62.38, Max: 82.30 (D’Angelo Russell)

  1. D’Angelo Russell (82.6)
  2. Bradley Beal (69.2)
  3. Devin Booker (68.1)
  4. Jimmy Butler (63.7)
  5. Caris Levert (63.3)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.840 (Bryn Forbes), 1Q: 8.832, Median: 9.785, Mean: 10.088, 3Q: 11.565, Max: 13.370 (Caris Levert)

  • The highest SD for a Shooting Guard is Caris Levert with 13.370. He has an average of 30.16 so he has a 65% chance to score within 16.79 and 43.53.
  • The lowest SD for a Shooting Guard is Bryn Forbes with 7.840. He has an average of 16.86 so he has a 65% chance to score within 9.02 and 24.7.
  • Shooting Guard is a little more consistent than the Point Guard position There are 3 players over $6000 to have an SD under 10 (Jimmy Butler, DeMar Derozan and Donovan Mitchell).
  • There are two players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Malik Beasley (11.6) and Gary Payton (12.14).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 36% (Gary Payton), 1Q: 48.25%, Median: 52%, Mean: 49.41%, 3Q: 53.00%, Max: 56% (Terrence Ross)

6x%: Min: 11% (Jimmy Butler), 1Q: 26.25%, Median: 30%, Mean: 29.18%, 3Q: 34.75%, Max: 38% (Tyler Herro)

  • Jimmy Butler is the least likely SG to reach 6x tonight while being the 2nd least likely to 5x% with 38%. With him being the 4th highest ceiling for a SG and these 5x and 6x numbers I can’t really play him going forward at that price. I wish they would lower him, he could be a great play with his low SD if he was a couple hundred less than he is now.
  • I wanted to add Caris Levert to this list to show how good of a play he is at his salary. He has the 5th highest ceiling for a SG on the slate while still hitting value with the best of them.

 

  • NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
    Malik Beasley370018.040.54311.60.480.360.250.16
    Tyler Herro410021.382.539.710.140.530.380.240.13
    Duncan Robinson400020.681.246.68.820.530.350.200.10
    Garrett Temple400021.036.741.78.350.550.360.200.09
    Jordan Clarkson440022.72.7449.360.530.350.190.09
    Gary Harris400020.786.145.18.260.540.350.190.09
    Caris LeVert600030.1611.163.313.370.500.330.190.09

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 34.00 (Jake Layman), 1Q: 41.90, Median: 46.60, Mean: 47.92, 3Q: 56.00, Max: 64.10

  1. Jae Crowder (64.1)
  2. Paul George (62.5)
  3. Marcus Morris (60.5)
  4. Jonathan Isaac (58.5)
  5. Tobias Harris (57.9)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.25 (Doug McDermott) , 1Q: 8.990, Median: 9.660, Mean: 9.844, 3Q: 10.700, Max: 13.150 (Jonathan Isaac)

  • The highest SD for a Shooting Guard is Jonathan Isaac with 13.15. He has an average of 32.92 so he has a 65% chance to score within 19.77 and 46.07
  • Juancho Hernangomez is the only player that has higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
  • Will Barton and Bojan Bogdanovic are the 2 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 34% (Matisse Thybulle), 1Q: 45%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.04%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 57% (Joe Harris)

6x%: Min: 21% (Doug McDermott), 1Q: 25%, Median: 31%, Mean: 30%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 37% (Mikal Bridges)

  • These guys are the top 9 guys to hit value today sub $5000.
  • NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
    Joe Harris440023.3110.344.87.940.570.350.17
    Taurean Prince450023.88.247.98.990.560.360.20
    Troy Brown430022.597.253.39.730.540.370.22
    Glenn Robinson420021.973.442.99.320.540.360.21
    Joe Ingles450023.467.241.99.470.540.350.20
    Will Barton610031.2412.654.99.730.530.290.12
    Jonathan Isaac640032.926.258.513.150.530.340.18
    Mikal Bridges410021.224.242.210.560.530.370.24
  • If you are looking for a high variance play with the most upside I would suggest Mikal Bridges. He is also the cheapest so the easiest to fit. He has the second highest SD on the table and has the highest chance to hit 6x and 7x (GPP Value).
  • The safest play on the board is Joe Harris at that price. Lowest SD and most likely to hit 5x.

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.10 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 41.25, Median: 47.30, Mean: 48.52, 3Q: 54.00, Max: 70.30

  1. Bam Adebayo (70.3)
  2. Kawhi Leonard (68.2)
  3. LaMarcus Aldridge (66.3)
  4. Jarrett Allen (63.7)
  5. Domantas Sabonis (60.3)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.77 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 9.235, Median: 9.790, Mean: 9.986, 3Q: 11.310, Max: 12.390 (Michael Porter Jr)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Khem Birch), 1Q: 45.45%, Median: 50%, Mean: 48.48%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 54% (Paul Millsap)

6x%: Min: 11% (Domantas Sabonis), 1Q: 28%, Median: 31%, Mean: 29.57%, 3Q: 34%, Max: 39% (Dario Saric)

  • NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
    Paul Millsap470024.617.643.99.990.540.360.20
    Davis Bertans510026.2410.347.38.090.540.300.12
    Frank Kaminsky410021.386.937.59.790.540.370.23
    Jerami Grant410021.346.542.89.710.530.370.22
    Aaron Gordon620031.874.45710.930.530.310.15
    Dario Saric410021.350.748.311.610.530.390.26
    Al Horford600030.6411.3519.140.530.280.11
    Kawhi Leonard940047.6331.468.29.330.530.170.03
    LaMarcus Aldridge730036.9810.366.312.090.520.290.12
  • Kawhi Leonard Isn’t going to wow you with his ceiling but he will get you exact what you need out of a spend up guy. You aren’t going to see him go for 7x or more often. He has a 3% chance to get 7x and won’t get higher than that, but he will get you 5x enough to make up for that.

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecnks), 1Q: 43.27, Median: 53.20, Mean: 54.52, 3Q: 62.30, Max: 83.00

  1. Karl-Anthony Towns (83)
  2. Nikola Jokic (80.5)
  3. Joel Embiid (78.3)
  4. Aron Baynes (64.7)
  5. Nikola Vucevic (62.9)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.

Min: 7.840 (Ivica Zubac), 1Q: 9.175, Median: 10.125, Mean: 10.347, 3Q: 11.113, Max: 14.180 (Joel Embiid)

  • There are 2 centers with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Jordan. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings. I want to go with a safe guy but still have the upside.
  • Joel Embiid has the highest SD for a center with 14.180 but he is still considered a safe plat for me with a 5x% of 43% and a 6x% of 20%. Both numbers are higher than Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns. It’s a close call between the two.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 33% (Anzejs Pasecnks), 1Q: 42.5%, Median: 49.5%, Mean: 46557%, 3Q: 51.25%, Max: 54% (Ivica Zubac)

6x%: Min: 11% (Nikola Vucevic), 1Q: 20%, Median: 29%, Mean: 27.05%, 3Q: 34%, Max: 40% (Aron Baynes)

  • Center is an extremely deep position.
  • NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
    Ivica Zubac400020.845.341.17.840.540.340.18
    Ian Mahinmi4000215.544.99.90.540.380.24
    Aron Baynes420021.785.964.713.180.520.400.28
    DeAndre Jordan500025.574.851.49.790.520.330.17
    Thomas Bryant500025.573.650.211.120.520.350.20
    Montrezl Harrell660033.2314.262.111.110.510.280.12
    Rudy Gobert800040.1115.26010.420.500.220.06
    Moritz Wagner390019.63.2559.830.500.350.22

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