Hello everyone! Hope everyone is enjoying the day off thanks to Martin Luther King Jr. Before I get started, I wanted to leave you with my favorite MLK quote: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”
One of the most important decisions today will be to play Harden (lock for cash games) and Embiid, or to try to go more balanced. Keep that in mind while building your lineups. I am leaning more Harden + balanced.
Top: If you want to have some very nice ownership leverage with a huge ceiling, I will be playing Ben Simmons $43. BS comes from a massive game against the Thunder and he will be looking to take advantage of all the mismatches he will have against the Rockets. If you want even more leverage, play Steph Curry $44 in the late game. Late game + huge blowout potential will keep his ownership at the minimum.
Middle: One of my favorite games to stack today is the Kings Nets game and my favorite exposure is D’Angelo Russell $31. I feel like he is underpriced for what his ceiling is. In the same game I love De’Aaron Fox. If you want some leverage, look into Mike Conley who is struggling big time but if Gasol is out he will get an usage bump.
Value: Since some of you might want to go Embiid + Harden, I will spend some extra time on value plays. There are some value plays that are very safe for 1-1.5x, but I feel that if you are doing stars + scrubs you need your value plays to score 3-4x. Here are the PG value plays I am considering: Tyler Johnson, DJ Augustin, Jeremy Lin, TJ McConnell.
Top: James Harden. Click on his name and move on.
Middle: My favorite play of the slate is Brandon Ingram. I can’t believe he is only $24 against the Warriors. With Lonzo out for a couple of weeks, the PG responsibilities will fall on Ingram’s shoulders. His usage should sky rocket and if the Lakers are going to keep it close it means that Ingram had a 2.5-3x game. Fournier is very much in consideration as well with Gordon ruled out.
Value: Rankings of my value plays: Justin Holiday, Lance Stephenson, James Ennis, Shamet, deep GPP – Alex Caruso.
Top: I don’t think I will have the money to spend for Kevin Durant $48, unless I am fading Harden. My top spend up play at SF is Kyle Kuzma for $31. Again, with Lonzo out all Lakers should get a bump in usage.
Middle: The middle of this range is very…meh. I could consider Taurean Prince especially if his minutes restriction is lifted. He had a HORRIBLE game on Saturday and he still got 2x.
Value: Rankings: Jonathan Isaac, Gerald Green, Waiters, Kurucs, Jonathon Simmons.
Top: The main reason why I am thinking of fading Embiid is because I really like Julius Randle $32 with no Anthony Davis. John Collins is also in a nice spot against the Magic.
Middle: More Pelicans, Nikola Mirotic $23 is in line for a huge night with no Anthony Davis. If you want a lower owned pivot I suggest Marvin Bagley.
Value: Not a lot to love in this area, I guess my favorite is Bolden if he somehow gets a ceiling game, but that’s about it. I miss the days of $11 Tucker.
Top: The very clear spend up option is Embiid $51. I don’t mind a Harden + Embiid, or just Embiid lineup but I don’t think neither is optimal. If you want to save $10 and a player that could potential matchup Embiid’s points, Vucevic is a near lock against the Hawks.
Middle: Boogie Cousins $20 is going to be one of the most controversial players for the next couple weeks. We all know he is a ~$50 player but we are unsure of 1) his minutes and 2) his role in the stud Warriors offense.
Value: If Marc is out, Ivan Rabb $10 is a lock for me. I think he is a very good player and with no Gasol he will have to play a ton of minutes. I also love Zubac whose minutes seem to be increasing with every single game that goes by. He should be the full time starting Center.
P.s, Nets v King Game stack for all the money.
If you find any of the advice helpful or they help you win any money please follow me on Twitter @FrostyDFS and send me tweets, or screenshots. I love interacting! Also, if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions please let me know!
Written by Frosty (Follow @FrostyDFS on Twitter)