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Wow, what a whirlwind weekend of wonderful wild sports! (Enough W words for you?)
Today’s NBA slate has some particularly intriguing match ups as well as story lines. Let’s not waste any time and get right to it.
Houston @ Philadelphia (-4) 233.5 O/U
On paper, this looks like a premier match up that should go down to the wire. And while many have been simply dazzled by James Harden’s efforts over the last games, it simply does not change the fact that this team needs to have components in order to let Harden work his magic. Chris Paul is still hurt, Clint Capela is on the mend, and overall the Rockets are just thin. The second unit is really struggling because of lack of personnel, and this puts more of a burden on Harden. The line has stayed almost completely intact, starting at -4, having some movement, but settling back in at this mark. This is an interesting statistic as the public is currently betting 80% of the money on Philly–which means that there have been some steam movement towards Houston to cover.
Why? Simply put, the uncertain status of Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler. And while this is definitely something to keep your eye on, the fact is that the play here is still Philadelphia and the points. Let’s look a bit here:
–PHI 4th in NBA for 3PT defense
–HOU shot 70 3 PT FGs against BKN, while only putting up 35 shots within the 3 PT line
–HOU 8-13 ATS on the road
–The home team is 62-32-1 ATS combined with the 3 referees assigned to the game
The Take: Philadelphia -4
Portland @ Utah (-5) 218.5 O/U
This is the third time that the Blazers and Jazz have met this year, and all of those games have been within the last 30 days. The total started at 215.5 and has gone up 3 pts since release, which is very significant as far as seeing how the money is flowing for bettors. Obviously, the thought here is that Portland and Utah have each had 3 days rest, and with fresh legs and a game against a tough opponent that the offensive games will accelerate and hit over the total. However, one of the things that must be taken into consideration with the public and seeing how they’re betting is that when it smells bad, it probably is, and that’s where sharps fade the public who almost always takes the route of the flow. This is why I believe that this is a key value spot to grab the under. These teams are very good defensively and are very familiar with each other.
–First 2 meetings were both UNDER
–The combined O/U record of the 3 referees for today’s game is 39-58 (and the crew already did one game with these teams where the total was 206)
–Avg. pts given up L5 for UTA is 99.8 PPG
–66% of public on the over, but 81% of money is on UNDER
–Both teams sport a 4-0 record for the under when playing a team with a SU winning record
The Take: Under 218.5 (wait until a reverse line movement as well to grab best value, this may keep going up)
Golden State (-12.5) @ LA Lakers, 232.5 O/U
The first time these two met were on Christmas, with the Lakers surprising the Warriors at home with a demolishing 127-101 win. While the Warriors aren’t a team that has to worry about rivals, etc., don’t let it fool you that they want to be able to win this game, and they want to pay back that tail-kicking. The totals started at 235 and has gone down to 232.5, The line movement is puzzling here; both of these teams have been scoring at a high clip for the most recent games, and both are also coming off of multiple days worth of rest. Some may be looking at the Lakers O/U record at home, which is a paltry 6-17. Others may point to the fact that Lebron James and Lonzo Ball are out, which leads to blowout concerns which therefore leads to generally hitting unders. But there are some things that others should take into consideration:
–GSW 14-8 Over/Under on the road
–GSW avg. game is 235 on 2 days rest
–Over is 7-1 for GSW vs. Western Conference
–LAL is 5-0-1 for Overs after scoring 125 previous game
The Take: Over 232.5
I am also going to parlay this with GSW and the points, but the more significant of the two as far as bet signals go is to go with the over.
Good luck and good gambling!
NOTE: Timmay’s betting style incorporates a conglomerate of data, analytics, his own proprietary model, and looks for the biggest edge in plays. While there are always some “square” tendencies for some games, some of the betting picks will be of the variety that goes against the grain versus the public. He covers NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF. Successfully sports gambling for over 15 years, Timmay owns and operates @geeksgambling on twitter.