**UPDATE: Shai has been ruled in, which effectively kills the OKC value and makes the OKC vs. Detroit game not as stackable as all the players on OKC take a hit in usage and minutes. I’ll list another game stack I like since I’m no longer on the OKC vs. Detroit match-up. Atlanta vs. Minnesota – I’m hopeful that value will open up in the Minnesota vs. Atlanta match-up. Minnesota has KAT, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverly listed questionable, if either of those players get ruled out we will have a lot of value options on Minnesota (Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid, J. Vanderbilt). Atlanta is priced up but they do have some cheap value should Reddish get ruled out (Huerter, Danilo) and I like John Collins and Trae Young as low owned bring backs if looking to stack this game. Trae is a little pricey on DK at $10300 so I’d only play him as part of a game stack.
Happy Monday everyone! After being with the kids and having family staying here this past weekend it feels nice to have a quiet house to grind some NBA DFS. The Sunday NFL slate went well and I’m ready for a new week to grind some NBA DFS. Sometimes you just have to be thankful that we have DFS in our lives as something to enjoy and hopefully profit off of. It’s really hard to enjoy an OKC vs. Detroit NBA game for the casual fan, but tonight I’ll be glued in for DFS purposes. This evening we get a big 10 gamer that is gonna require a lot of research with all the injury news.
Injuries:
There is a ton of news so I’ll just cover some of the bigger injuries below:
Players currently listed out:
- Ja Morant – Out
- Bam – Out
- D Booker – Out
- Lamelo – Out
- Shai – Out
- Lillard – Out
- Rozier – Out
- Dinwiddier – Out
- Rozier – Out
- Suggs – Out
Players currently questionable:
- Jimmy Butler – Questionable
- Giannis – Questionable
- KAT – Questionable
- D’Angelo Russell – Questionable
- Tobias Harris – Questionable
This slate will be shaped by injuries so (as always) it’s likely some of my thoughts will change as we get closer to lock. Please keep track of my GPP core plays that I’ll have posted at least 15 minutes before lock.
+EV Strategy:
- On a slate this large and with so much news we are waiting on I sometimes build as the night goes on. I monitor what games are locking at each time slot and find the plays I like the most from those games to lock in. We will most likely need to re-build our GPP rosters throughout the night to account for injuries and starting lineup news in order to take advantage of late swap. In cash, I’ll lock in any no-brainer plays from the early games (looks like we may want to play some value from Charlotte in cash from the early games) and then build the rest of my cash lineup after lock to give myself more time to react and account for injury news.
GPP Game Stacks:
- There are a lot of teams I like tonight but it seems like one side of each game is overpriced. The one game where there are plays I like on both sides of the game (as of now) is the Oklahoma City vs. Detroit game. There are some red flags here since the total is low (205 point total) and this game is generating some ownership. However, with Shai being out for OKC they have so many potential GPP plays and ways to stack this game. Josh Giddey is coming in at moderate ownership (15% projected) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (3% projected ownership) seems super sneaky for large-field GPPs if he gets the minutes. Dort is getting steamed up from an ownership perspective but I expect that to come down as the injury news trickles in. On Detroit we have Cade Cunningham and Jerami Grant getting over 20% ownership in current projections. I expect these numbers to come down as value comes in. At 20% ownership I’d want to fade these plays but I expect by lock they will be single digit owned and great GPP plays as part of a game stack. Saddiq Bey is also a sneaky play as his price is all the way down to $5200 on DK. We know he will get the minutes so if this game gets going I think there is some upside at Bey’s price tag. I’ll be playing pieces of this game throughout my lineups and plan on being overweight this game as a whole from a macro perspective.
GPP Plays:
- Dejounte Murray (large-field GPP only) – I’ve been playing a lot of Dejounte lately and he hasn’t really disappointed. The match-up with Phoenix is tough but that’s reflected in his projected ownership at 2%. At this ownership number I’ll almost always be overweight on Murray, as I expect this game to stay competitive. In Murray’s last 6 games he has over 47 fantasy points in each of them and he’s gone over 50 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games. Dejounte has triple double upside and fills up the stat sheet when he’s on the court. He’s my favorite type of play: low owned, high floor and high ceiling. I’ll be getting overweight in this spot and if you want some really low owned correlation for large field GPPs, pair Dejounte with Chris Paul in a few lineups in hopes this game stays close.
- Nikola Jokic (again) – I just took a look at the projected Center ownership on Draftkings and Embiid is projected at 25%+ while Jokic is at around 5% projected ownership. Ask yourself, is Embiid really 5x more likely to outperform Jokic in this spot? First off, Jokic is at 1.86 and 34% usage this year with Michael Porter Jr. off the floor. Those fantasy numbers don’t seem to be budging as the sample size grows so I think they’re accurate. A match-up with Vucevic isn’t ideal but I don’t think anyone on the planet can stop Nikola. The minutes have been down a bit but that’s mainly because of blowouts. We saw 2 games ago vs. Orlando a tight game where Jokic got up to 36 minutes. The game tonight has a tight spread so I do expect this one to stay competitive. The ownership number on Jokic probably creeps up as value opens up but if he’s getting overlooked for Embiid, I’ll be well overweight on The Joker in GPPs.
- Josh Giddey – I touched on this play above a bit and I’ll dive a little deeper here. Giddey is priced accurately on DK at $6800 but I still see the upside at this price tag. With Shai off the floor, Giddey is at 1.1 fantasy points per minute with 22% usage. He’s another player that can fill up the stat sheet. The issue with OKC is they can get blown out since they’re a terrible basketball team. The good thing about their match-up tonight is Detroit is a dumpster fire as well. I think the minutes on Giddey can get up in the 32-34 minute range and he has triple-double upside. The price tags on this game as a whole make it so a lot of plays here are in play for GPPs if this game stays close.
GPP Fades:
- CJ Mccollum – Currently CJ is projected at 26% owned on a 9 game slate. Lillard is out tonight but this price tag is too high for CJ Mccollum. CJ on the year without Lillard is at 1.16 fantasy points per minute and 31% usage. Mccollum is mainly reliant on actual points for accruing fantasy points. At a $9K price tag he will need a hot shooting night just to 5X his salary. The last couple games without Dame he hasn’t even reached 40 fantasy points so I’m not sure I understand this price tag or ownership. If he’s anywhere over 10% owned I may fade CJ entirely as I see a decent floor with very limited upside.
This slate has some very highly projected Charlotte plays that I don’t think we want to fade even in GPPs. I may be locking Ish Smith in all my contests depending how news breaks, as he’s just incorrectly priced on DK. This is another day where the injury news will shape the slate so monitor news even after lock. Let’s start the week off with some profits.
Max
