Dallas Mavericks (-130)/Atlanta Hawks (+110)
The game totals have been increased by a wide margin since the beginning of the season, and it seems as if we can no longer simply plug and play overs. This is a game that I feel has the potential to hit over, though. The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks both rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA in defensive rating. Dallas also ranks third in offensive rating, while Atlanta flashed tremendous offensive potential in their last game. The Hawks games are averaging a total of 241.7 points this season, while the Mavs games are averaging a total of 240.3 points. Both teams are offensive-minded with holes throughout their defense. I worry slightly about Dallas’ pace, but Atlanta generally seems to be able to control the pace of games. I also worry about how high the total of this game is getting, but this should be a fast paced, high scoring game from the start to the finish.
Bet 3 units on the Dallas/Atlanta OVER 234 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Dallas Mavericks (-130)
This line seems a bit close, as it feels like recency bias of Atlanta’s last game has created this. Neither team features an elite defense, but Dallas has looked outstanding offensively this season. They’ll continue to play without Harrison Barnes, but that hasn’t slowed them down early this season. They have multiple players that can score in bunches, while Atlanta’s offensive is much more reliant on one player – Trae Young. Atlanta will also be without John Collins, who is one of their best players. I feel there are simply too many mismatches that Dallas can take advantage of in this game, while Atlanta’s offense will start and stop with Young. I would expect this line to be much wider if Atlanta had not won their last game, and that’s a major reason for attacking Dallas tonight.
Bet 3 units on the Dallas ML to win 2.3 units (-130)
Utah Jazz (+110)
This feels like a “get right spot” for the Utah Jazz tonight. They lost on a tip-in buzzer beater against the Golden State Warriors before being embarrassed by the Memphis Grizzlies. Utah features one of the best rosters in the West, though, and they’re likely to end up as a higher playoff seed. The Houston Rockets have been a bit of a disappointment this season, as they’re still learning to play together. They will be without Chris Paul tonight, as he’s suspended, and James Ennis is also out with an injury Utah, on the other hand, will be fully healthy, and I’ll take odds on one of the best teams in the West.
Bet 2 units on the Utah ML to win 2.2 units (+110)
Parlay 2 units on Charlotta ML, Milwaukee -6 spread, and Los Angeles Lakers ML to win 7 units (+349)