What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans are two teams that love pushing the pace in the NBA. They also both focus more heavily on offense than defense, and that is likely to be the case tonight. This game features the highest projected total by a wide margin. The Warriors are currently +4.5 point underdogs in a game set at 236.5 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 116 points.
Stephen Curry has struggled this season, averaging 23.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists (36.8 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game. He’s shooting only 39.5% from the floor, including 20% from beyond the arc. Curry does possess a team-high 34.7% usage rating, though. He has seen two relatively difficult matchups, and will find a significantly easier one tonight. Curry has yet to show his true upside this season, and he makes an elite option in this style of game.
D’Angelo Russell is the other obvious choice for Golden State, but I’m going to pass on him in favor of two cheaper options. Omari Spellman has seen mixed results because of inconsistent minutes through his first two games. He played 25 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder, though, scoring 9 points with 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals (32 DK points). He’s a versatile big man that can contribute in each of the five categories. Spellman is tentatively expected to play around 20-25 minutes tonight, making him an outstanding option for his current price tag.
Marquese Chriss will also see extended minutes because of the injury to Kevon Looney. In his last game, Chriss scored 10 points with 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals (25.5 DK points) in 23 minutes. He’s expected to play similar minutes tonight, while featuring a near minimum price tag. Chriss and Spellman likely won’t be used together on this slate, but both make outstanding salary relief options.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers haven’t been playing at a fast pace this season, and they’ll see a small uptick in pace against the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte has featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA, while Los Angeles boasts the best offense in the league. The Clippers are -15.5 point favorite in a game set at 228.5 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 122 points.
Kawhi Leonard has been the focal point of the Los Angeles offense this season, posting a 38.7% usage rating through three games. He’s only averaging 28.3 minutes per game because of a blowout, but he has turned those minutes into 26.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.7 steals (50.3 DK points) per game. Leonard is coming off a 61.5 DK point performance against the Phoenix Suns, but his price tag doesn’t represent his upside.
Charlotte has been the worst team in the NBA against opposing bigs. Montrezl Harrell now geets that elite matchup. Through 3 games, he’s averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (34.8 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game. Harrell has exceeded value in his only two full games this season. A blowout win against the Golden State Warriors has kept his price tag low, though. This could be Harrell’s first massive double-double of the season.
Lou Williams continues to be arguably the best sixth man in the NBA. He is averaging 22.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists (35.7 DK points) in 31.3 minutes per game. He also possesses a 27% usage rating this season. Charlotte doesn’t feature the defense that can slow down someone with Williams’ skillset. He could go overlooked on this slate, and he makes an outstanding option.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
This stack dominated in my last article, and I’m going back to the well. The San Antonio Spurs no longer play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and they get a solid matchup against the Portland Blazers tonight. The Spurs are -6 point favorites in a game set at 222 points, and they own an implied team total of 114 points tonight.
Dejounte Murray is only averaging 23.2 minutes per game this season. With that being said, he’s also averaging 18.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.5 steals (43 DK points) per game in that time. He’s a versatile player, who comes with quiet triple-double potential. Murray would be a lock if he were playing full minutes, but he has proven multiple times that he can exceed value in limited minutes.
DeMar DeRozan struggled in his first game of the season, but looked outstanding against the Washington Wizards. He scored 26 points with 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, and 2 steals (41 DK points) in 36 minutes in that game. Most importantly, DeRozan saw 24 shot attempts against Washington, flashing tremendous upside. He also comes with added rebound and assist potential that he hasn’t flashed in 2019.
LaMarcus Aldridge has found success this season, posting 24.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks (41.1 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game. He nearly double-doubled in his last game, and he comes with more upside than he has displayed thus far. Each three of these players boast a usage rating north of 25% this season, and they are all a bit cheap tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Bryn Forbes
Forbes has quietly been playing well in 2019. Through 2 games, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (27.6 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game. Most importantly, he has played 30+ minutes in each of those games, and is nearly guaranteed minutes on a nightly basis. Forbes also owns a career-high 18.3% usagee rating early this season.
Forbes gets an interesting matchup against the Portland Blazers. They have featured roughly an average defense, while playing at an average pace in 2019. The Spurs should find success in this game, as they feature an implied team total of 114 points. Forbes is a player that will go overlooked for San Antonio, but he’s a safe salary relief option.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Mario Hezonja
Hezonja only saw 18 minutes in each of his first 2 games this season. Those minutes increased to 25 against the Dallas Mavericks because of an injury to Zach Collins. In that time, Hezonja scored 4 points with 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal (21 DK points). He’s expected to play 25+ minutes tonight, as well.
Hezonja gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who no longer play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. They have also struggled defensively early in the 2019 season. Hezonja is a player that has the ability to catch fire in a game, and he could easily outscore his price tag. He should be considered in all leagues, as he’s far too cheap for his new role.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
