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NBA DFS 11/1/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks will be playing in the fastest paced game of the slate, as they rank first and second in the NBA in pace this season. Surprisingly, Atlanta features an above average defense, while Sacramento ranks slightly above average in terms of offensive rating. The Kings are -2 point favorites in a game set at 233 points, and they feature one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 117.5 points.

The Kings rotation has become a bit more known recently, and they have four major pieces. Each of those pieces can be considered on a smaller slate tonight. Nemanja Bjelica has been one of their best players recently, as he’s averaging 19.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.5 steals (44.0 DK points) in 32.8 minutes per game over his last four games. Buddy Hield and Willie Cauley-Stein are two more options, who have been heating up since the rotation has locked in (last four games). Hield has been extremely efficient recently, scoring 20+ points in each of his last four games. He’s averaging a healthy 40.2 DK points over that span, while scoring 32+ DK points in each of those games. Cauley-Stein has double doubled in each of his last four games, nearly triple doubling against the Washington Wizards. In those games, WCS is averaging an 18.0/11.3/2.8/0.3/1.3 line (39.9 DK points) in 33.0 minutes per game. De’Aaron Fox is the other major part of the rotation, although he’s coming off of a bad game against the Orlando Magic. Fox is dealing with a back injury, but played 31 minutes in his last game, suggesting he’ll be locked into big minutes once again tonight. He leads the starters with a 25.0% usage rating, and comes with quite a bit of upside. Fox may the best riskiest option on this stack, though.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers are two teams that have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking only 18th and 20th in the NBA in pace, respectively. With that being said, Denver ranks 13th in the league in offensive rating, while Cleveland ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating. It’s an elite matchup for the Denver Nuggets, who are -5 point favorites in a game set at 218 points. They own an implied total of 111.5 points tonight.

Nikola Jokic leads the Denver starters with a 25.7% usage rating this season. He’s an extremely versatile option, averaging 21.6 pints, 10.6 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 30.6 minutes per game. Cleveland has also struggled against big men this season, and Jokic has proven to be one of the best in the NBA. Jamal Murray struggled a bit to start the season, but he has caught fire over his last four games. He needed only 18 minutes to score 29.75 DK points against the Sacramento Kings before averaging 38.9 DK points in 39.0 minutes per game over his last three games. Gary Harris has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, but he leads Denver in minutes per game. He has also found success while on the court, averaging 19.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. He has been a bit more of a boom or bust option recently, but he’s locked into big minutes, and Cleveland simply doesn’t have anyone that is going to be able to guard Harris (or the rest of Denver’s offense).

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Malcolm Brogdon

Outside of two games, Brogdon has been relatively consistent with upside this season. Through seven games, he’s averaging 13.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 30.4 minutes per game. He has scored 23+ DK points in five of his seven games this season, while also flashing 35 DK point upside. He’s a player that can contribute in three categories, and he has taken at least eight shot attempts in every game this season.

Brogdon’s minutes have been a bit inconsistent this season, but he’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight. He has never seen a high usage rating, and that should be the case once again with Giannis Antetokounmpo returning tonight. Still, Brogdon is a cheap option, who will see plenty of time on the court. He’s a safe option, who also comes with quiet upside.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Al-Farouq Aminu

Aminu has been far from a consistent option this season, as he has scored as low as 8.5 DK points and as many as 38.75 DK points in games this season. He has also played between 21 and 35 minutes in each of his games, although he has never truly struggled with fouls. He has flashed double double potential, as well.

It’s extremely difficult to predict Aminu’s minutes on a nightly basis, but he’s expected to see minutes in the high-20s tonight. He’s an active, hustle player, and a fast paced matchup will allow him to put his strengths on full display. Aminu is a cheaper way to get a piece of this game, although he does come with quite a bit of risk, even on the smaller slate.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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