NBA DFS 12/28/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 12/28/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers have both been pushing the pace this season. These teams rank fourth and ninth in the NBA in pace, respectively. The Lakers only rank 17th in the NBA, but the Clippers also only rank only 23rd in the league in defensive rating. The Lakers are currently +5.5 point underdogs in a game set at 230 points, and they feature an implied total of 112.3 points.

Similarly to last night, the Lakers will be without LeBron James or Rajon Rondo. Lonzo Ball will feature a plethora of ownership after scoring 57.75 DK points in 37 minutes against the Sacramento Kings. In that game, he scored 20 points with nine rebounds, 12 assists, one block, and two steals. He comes with triple double potential on a nightly basis, and he’s entirely too cheap for his current role in the Los Angeles rotation. Kyle Kuzma is a bit more expensive, but he’s another player that is too cheap. He consistently scored 40+ DK points with Brandon Ingram injured, and he re-entered that role with James hurt. In his last game, Kuzma totaled 24 shot attempts with nine free throw attempts. Overall, Kuzma scored 33 points with nine rebounds and four assists (48.25 DK points). This duo will likely see minutes in the high-30s or low-40s once again. Josh Hart is another player that will see 30+ minutes in this game. He doesn’t come with the same upside as the other two players in this stack, but he’s significantly cheaper than Ball or Kuzma. In his first game without James, Hart scored 10 points with four rebounds, two assists, one block, and three steals (27.0 DK points). He doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value, and he makes the salary of this stack a bit more affordable. Each of these three players are too cheap on this slate, and this is likely the last time without James that we’ll be able to play them at such a low price tag total.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Minnesota Wolves

The Minnesota Wolves have quietly been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking 11th in the NBA in pace thus far. Still, they’ll see an uptick in pace tonight, as they face off against the Atlanta Hawks, who currently lead the NBA in pace. Atlanta also rank 24th in the NBA in defensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 15th in the league in defensive rating. The Wolves are -9 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 119.5 points.

Derrick Rose has been starting for the injured Jeff Teague, and that is expected to be the case once again tonight. He has played 38 minutes in two of his last three games, averaging 28.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (46.0 DK points) in those two games. He has looked outstanding for the most part this season when given 30+ minutes in a game, and that will be the case again tonight. Furthermore, Atlanta features one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA, and Rose is known for being a dominant scorer. Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled at times recently, averaging 16.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.4 blocks (38.7 DK points) in 30.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been a significantly better option at home this season, though, where he’s averaging 1.43 DK points per minute, as opposed to 1.28 DK points per minute on the road. Towns is coming off of a dominant 52 DK point performance, and he’ll be looking to build on that performance tonight. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 18.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (29.1 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has struggled in two of his last three games, but this is the type of matchup that he can take advantage of. This game will be fast paced and high scoring, and Wiggins is a player that is heavily dependent on scoring. As mentioned above, Atlanta has featured one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA, and this trio comes with tremendous upside.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Los Angeles Clippers

This game was outlined above, and it will feature one of the fastest paces on the entire slate. The Los Angeles Clippers have featured one of the best offenses in the NBA, ranking fifth in the league in offensive rating. With that being said, the Los Angeles Lakers quietly rank 10th in the NBA in defensive rating. Regardless, the Clippers are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, and they own an implied total of 117.8 points tonight.

Lou Williams has seen inconsistent minutes throughout the season, but he has recorded an elite 31.8% usage rating through 30 games. He has played 20+ minutes in three of his last four games, averaging 25.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.0 steal (41.2 DK points) in 23.7 minutes per game. He gets an elite matchup against the Lakers, who have struggled against shooting guards this season. This is also the fast paced, high scoring type of game that Williams can take advantage of. Danilo Gallinari has seen limited minutes in two of his last three games because of blowouts, but he’s still averaging 22.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (37.5 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 46.25 and 49.5 DK points in his last two complete games, and we could see another big game from Gallinari, who tends to rely heavily on his scoring for fantasy production. Tobias Harris has also caught fire recently, averaging 25.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (42.1 DK points) in 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harris has been playing minutes in the high-30s most nights, and he comes with tremendous upside. He’s another player that will benefit from the high scoring nature of this matchup, and this trio will make up the majority of the offensive production for this team. These three players are also surprisingly cheap for their recent production, and they make one of the highest upside tournament stacks on the slate.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Lonzo Ball

I have outlined Ball above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He proved to be an elite option last night against the Sacramento Kings, scoring 20 points with nine rebounds, 12 assists, one block, and two steals. He’s a triple double threat on a nightly basis when given the minutes, and he has the potential to contribute in each of the five categories. Ball also gets a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. This is likely the last time we’ll get him this cheap, and it would be wise to use him while we can.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Dewayne Dedmon

Dedmon has found success through 27 games, averaging 9.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.1 steals (24.7 DK points) in 24.0 minutes per game. He is averaging 28.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days, and he is also averaging 30.6 DK points per game over that span. He played 37 minutes in his last game, as well, posting an 18/15/3/1/2 line (47.75 DK points).

Dedmon is tentatively expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight, but his price tag doesn’t represent that. He has played 30+ minutes in five of his last 10 games, and he’s averaging 35.7 DK points per game over that span. Minnesota has performed well for the most part against centers, although they have struggled at times. Dedmon is simply too cheap on this slate, and he’s a great salary relief option.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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