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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/28/18)

Friday day slate! Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

 

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Dennis Schroder: Schroder is the #3 option in this offense in terms of ball handling but he does see a very high usage rate with the second unit.  Schroder sees a solid amount of minutes on the floor and gets a fantastic matchup with a weak defensive unit against the PG.  At his current price on Draftkings he offers 40 DK point upside at a low-mid tier price range.
  2. Kris Dunn: Kris Dunn is going to be 1/2 the amount owned as Derrick Rose and is presented with the exact same opportunity for $200 cheaper in a better matchup.  While people forget how effective Kris Dunn was before he got hurt, he has an extremely high ceiling for a player currently priced below 7k.
  3. Jeremy Lin: Lin is the farthest thing from a safe option on a 10 game slate but at a price of 3.8k where he occassionally sees extended run on the floor he is worth a shot in a deeper GPP to fill the PG/G/UTIL position on Draftkings.  While on the floor Lin commands a usage rate of 25% and owns a FP/min rate of over 1.  If he can near 25 minutes tonight he will crush value.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. JJ Barea : Barrea has quietly been one of the best reserves in the NBA this season averaging over 1.2 FP/min which is good for 5th best at the position today.  People will be scared off playing Barea as he comes off the bench and doesn’t see heavy minutes but the matchup/pace is fantastic in this game and Barrea should be productive.  He’s a great play on Fanduel and a solid one on Draftkings.
  2. Spencer Dinwiddie:  In case you haven’t noticed, Spencer Dinwiddie has been carrying the Nets to wins over the last two weeks.  The Nets are 9-1 over their past 10 and it seems every night Dinwiddie is contributing with 25-40 points, 6-9 assists, in addition to some peripherals.  His price is reasonable on Draftkings tonight for his upside and his ability to take over games in the 4th quarter where his usage skyrockets.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Trey Lyles: Back to the well with Trey Lyles who’s price continues to drop yet he owns the upside to hit 10x at his current price tag.  Lyles owns a 24% usage rate while on the floor which is notable for a SF/PF eligible player.  I like the over in this game and believe Lyles will have to play a little more minutes tonight to keep up with guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and Bertans/Poetl.
  2. Danilo Gallinari: Gallinari plays heavy minutes as a key contributor for a Clippers team that is rolling this season.  You can’t go wrong with Gallinari tonight at 6.7k where his usage rate is going to be up above 23% and he gets a pace up matchup with the Lakers in a huge 230 total.  Gallinari gets a plus matchup against Kuzma/Ingram and should be able to contribute across all categories tonight.

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Lauri Markkanen: Markkanen is the perfect guy to pair with Kris Dunn tonight who should be able to run the pick and roll extremely effectively on a Wizards team that is currently in shambles.  Markkanen is heavily utilized in this offense and is one of the most capable bigs in the NBA from 3-point range.  This Bulls/Wizards game is one of my favorites to get exposure to and I’m prioritizing the Dunn/Markkanen build in my GPPs lineup.
  2. John Collins: People have caught on to the insane upside of John Collins.  Collins is averaging an INSANE 1.36 FP/min over the course of the past month while seeing HEAVY minutes and a HEAVY usage rate while on the court.  Outside of Anthony Davis and maybe Kawhi Leonard, John Collins could end up the highest raw point scorer on the slate at this position.

 

 

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Nikola Jokic: 8.8k for Nikola Jokic? Yes, please.  This is not the best pace in the world with a total lower than ideal but I do love the upside of this play in what is an OK matchup for the big man.  Jokic has 60+ DK point upside and has been consistent as we could expect only differing from his season FP/min output by .1 at 1.47.
  2. Thomas Bryant: Thomas Bryant has been on fire over this last stretch and is deserving of more minutes from this Wizards team.  As I said I’m very high on this game overall and while I do know there is a lot of risk to be had with Bryant tonight in terms of his minutes load, I can accept that at a 3.8k price tag.  This is a fantastic matchup for big-men and Bryant should be extremely effective in the paint in what should be a high scoring game.  Get some exposure in your deeper GPPs to mini game stack with the Dunn/Markkanen combo.

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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