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NBA DFS 2/8/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks have been pushing the pace this season, ranking fifth in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who only rank 19th in the league in pace through 53 games. Milwaukee also ranks fourth in the NBA in offensive rating, while Dallas ranks 11th in the league in defensive rating. With that being said, Dallas recently traded multiple players in an attempt to rebuild, meaning their defense could suffer from young, inexperienced players. The Bucks are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 222.5 points, giving them an implied total of 115 points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most obvious option for Milwaukee, and he shouldn’t be avoided tonight. He has caught fire recently, and he’s averaging 30.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 2.2 steals (58.4 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, including three games with 60+ DK points. He was able to score 56.75 DK points in his only matchup against Dallas this season, and he could be asked to do a bit more with Khris Middleton out tonight. Eric Bledsoe is another player that will benefit from the absence of Middleton. He has been playing extremely well over his last four games, regardless, as he’s averaging 17.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 3.3 steals (43.5 DK points) in only 28.4 minutes per game over that span. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and his usage rating should increase a few points, as well. Bledsoe scored 37 DK points in 32.3 minutes against Dallas earlier this season, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t find similar success in this game. Malcolm Brogdon is another player that will see 30+ minutes with Middleton resting tonight. He has also found success recently, averaging 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 steals (30.7 DK points) in 28.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Brogdon found success against Dallas earlier this season, as well, scoring 38.5 DK points in 32.5 minutes in that game. This trio combined for 126.25 DK points in their only matchup against Dallas this season, and we could see similar results tonight.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that has been playing at a fast pace this season, ranking seventh in the NBA in pace through 54 games. They’ll see a downtick in pace against the Denver Nuggets, who currently rank only 27th in the league in pace. Denver also ranks 14th in the NBA in defensive rating, while Philadelphia ranks 10th in the league in offensive rating. The latter made some deals at the trade deadline, though, and they are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 229.5 points. They feature one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 117 points.

The Sixers are expected to have a full roster tonight, meaning they have a plethora of options that can be considered. Joel Embiid is currently questionable, but he’ll continue to be the focal point of the offense if he’s healthy. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 30.0 points, 15.3 rebonds, 3.8 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.0 steal (60.1 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game. He has scored 60+ DK points in five of his last six games, as well. Embiid has yet to play Denver this season, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him try to prove he’s the best center in the NBA against Nikola Jokic. Ben Simmons is another player that likely won’t have his role change much with the addition of Tobias Harris and other players. Simmons is averaging 21.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 steals (43.8 DK points) in 40.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He could come with more triple double potential, as the Sixers added another scoring option for Simmons to assist to. Simmons will continue to see minutes in the mid- to high-30s, and he makes an outstanding option with a relatively clear role in the Sixers offense. Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick all make sense to fill out this stack, but I’m siding slightly with Boban Marjanovic at the moment. He’s an elite per minute player, averaging 1.36 DK points per minute on the season. He has played 13+ minutes in each of his last three games, averaging 10.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 1.0 steals (24.0 DK points) in 15.3 minutes per game over that span. He’s expected to see backup center minutes tonight, meaning he’ll likely see minutes between 10-15. While that doesn’t seem like a lot, Marjanovic can easily exceed value in that time at his current price tag. He isn’t a safe option, but he does come with quite a bit of upside. He’ll also make an elite option if Embiid is forced to miss this game.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards get an interesting matchup tonight. They rank eighth in the NBA in pace, while their opponents, the Cleveland Cavaliers, rank only 29th in the league in pace this season. With that being said, Cleveland also ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating in 2018. Washington, on the other hand, ranks 16th in the league in offensive rating. The Wizards are currently -10 point favorites in a game set at 220.5 points, and they own an implied total of 115.3 points.

Tomas Satoransky continues to be one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He’s still a few hundred dollars under $6K, even though he’s averaging 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.6 assists (29.3 DK points) in 28.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He saw limited minutes in two of those games, but he’s fully expected to play 30+ minutes tonight. He has scored 42.75 and 36.5 DK points in his last two games, nearly triple doubling in both games. Satoransky has also scored 40+ DK points in three of his last eight games. He comes with upside that you simply don’t see at his current price tag. Trevor Ariza looked outstanding without Otto Porter in the lineup, and that will be the case tonight. Bobby Portis could take away from his value, but he isn’t guaranteed to play in this game. Regardless, Ariza is averaging 13.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.2 steals (28.0 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He hasn’t flashed much consistency recently, but he has scored 42 DK points against the Atlanta Hawks only two games ago. Ariza scored 27.75 DK points in 27.5 minutes in his only matchup against Cleveland this season, and he’s expected to see minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight. Jeff Green will likely feature some ownership at this point, but it’s impossible to avoid him in a high upside Washington stack. He has played 29+ minutes in each of his last four games, and he’s expected to see that again tonight. In that time, he’s averaging 22.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks (37.7 DK points) per game. He has also found success in limited minutes against Cleveland this season, and Washington is a team that could go overlooked, but they have multiple players in the mid-price range that come with tremendous upside.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Collin Sexton

Sexton has feature plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2018 NBA season, but he’s averaging 14.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (23.1 DK points) in 29.5 minutes per game through 54 games. He has been playing at a high level recently, though, averaging 27.3 DK points per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a 41 DK point performance, flashing tremendous upside, although he is far from a consistent option.

Sexton will be forced into big minutes once again tonight, and he gets a plus matchup against a fast paced Washington Wizards team. Through three matchups with Washington, Sexton is averaging 21.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists (31.4 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game. He’s still extremely cheap, and he makes a strong salary relief option in tournaments tonight. He isn’t safe enough to be considered in cash games, though.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Dwight Powell

Powell is only averaging 16.5 minutes per game this season, but he has looked outstanding while on the court. Overall, he’s averaging 8.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (17.4 DK points) in that time. He has seen 24+ minutes in each of his last four games, though, including 27 minutes in his last game. In that time, he scored 38.5 DK points, and Powell has always found fantasy success in extended minutes.

Tonight, he gets a solid matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have struggled at times against bigs this season. Powell is expected to see minutes in the high-20s once again tonight, and he could continue to score over 1.0 DK point per minute in this game. He’s going to feature plenty of ownership for his current price tag, and there’s no real reason to avoid him, specifically in cash games.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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