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I’m pretty pumped as my Vegas trip for March Madness/Bachelor party festivities is finally here. I’ll be on a red eye flight to Vegas tomorrow so I won’t be very accessible over the next few days. Last night was rough in the DFS streets as I had way to little of Lebron and Valanciunas to have any real sweats in GPPs. I’m looking forward to forgetting about that slate and digging in tonight. It’s a small 4 game slate but we still have massive price pools so there’s money to be made.
UPDATE: Julius Randle has been ruled out making RJ Barrett (6% usage bump) an even better play with some additional usage to go around for the Knicks. I did a quick query with Randle off the floor and it looks like Alec Burks (4% usage bump) and Mitchell Robinson (1% usage bump) also see bumps to their fantasy points per minute rates and usage, so we’re going to want some Knicks in our line-ups this evening. I’ll add that this makes Obi Toppin probably the chalk of the slate if he’s starting tonight for Randle (he has started when Randle has missed games previously).
- Bogdan Bogdanovic – Questionable
- Moses Moody – Questionable
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Probable
- Andrew Wiggins – Probable
- Jamychal Green – Probable
There is very little injury news we are waiting on this early in the day. The Bogdan Bogdanovic news is really the only relevant player we’re monitoring but you never know what news may drop in late March NBA.
For a four game slate there are quite a few plays I like tonight. At Guard I’m leaning towards fading the high end as we have better spend-ups at other positions. Jrue Holiday is in a good spot at home versus Chicago with the Bucks shorthanded, without Khris Middleton tonight. With Middleton off the floor, Jrue has produced at a rate of 1.28 fantasy points per minute and sees a massive 5.4% usage boost. Those rates do take a slight hit if we put Giannis on the floor but Jrue should be productive tonight and I’m expecting big minutes as 7 point home favorites in an expected close game with the Bulls. Jrue is priced at $7,800 on DK which seems like a slight discount given that Middleton is out tonight. The other mid-range guard play I like tonight is RJ Barrett (now a lock with Randle out). Barrett has played 40+ minutes in 5 straight games and has taken 20 of more field goal attempts in all 5 of those games. He seems to be taking command of the offense and really looks like a building block for the Knicks moving forward. New York plays Atlanta tonight in MSG in a game that has a 1 point spread so I’m expecting this one to stay close throughout. With how many blowouts we’ve seen recently in the NBA, I’m wanting to target players in anticipated close games. The last play I like at Guard is a value option that seems like a solid cash play in Alex Caruso. It was announced that Caruso will be starting for the Bulls moving forward and we can expect 30+ minutes from Mr. Caruso nightly. Caruso has been right around a .8 fantasy point per minute player this year but at a $4,100 price tag on a slate with little value under $4K, Caruso looks like the best value option on the slate this early in the day.
Over the years there are certain players we each seem to gravitate to and tonight is no different. I always seem to play a lot of Marcus Morris as he has solidified minutes and solid usage on this Clippers team. What separates Marcus Morris (or “Senior” as I like to call him) is the price tag on DK tonight. He’s listed at $5,600, which is much too cheap for the upside Morris brings. Over the last few games the minutes have been up and down but that’s mainly due to blowouts. In competitive games we can expect close to 35 minutes from “Senior” and he’s put up around .95 fantasy points per minute on the year. Morris looks like a lock for cash games as he provides some necessary salary relief on this slate. Danilo Gallinari is another play I like in a revenge spot versus his former team in the New York Knicks. Just last game Danilo played a shocking 41 minutes and put up 39 fantasy points. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that amount of minutes going forward but he should continue to start and play close to 30 minutes. Danilo typically produces around .9 fantasy points per minute so at a $5,100 price tag he looks like a solid mid-range play. I’ll be monitoring injury news in hopes that we get some more value open up to help unlock the high end at Forward. Obviously, Giannis is in a great spot but we are going to need a little more value in order to play him on this slate without making sacrifices at other positions.
Surprisingly, I don’t see many cheap Centers I like this early in the day. We have Nikola Jokic on the slate, who I always love to get to but without any value I’m leaning towards more of a mid-range build as of this morning. Nikola Vucevic continues to see his price plummet over the last few weeks. Vucevic was up over a $10,000 salary on 2/24 and is now priced all the way down at $7,700. Nothing has really changed in his role and he continues to produce solid stat lines in competitive games. I’m expecting the typical 32-34 minutes and 40+ fantasy points from Nikola tonight and that looks great at his discounted price tag. The Chicago versus Milwaukee match-up is looking like my favorite game stack on the slate with a number of plays on both teams to help build some correlation into our line-ups.
I’ll put a bow on this article for now but I won’t be surprised if we see some late news drop to shake up the slate (and just as I write this Julius Randle gets ruled out). Let’s get this week back on track. Enjoy the games!
Cash Plays: Alex Caruso, RJ Barrett, Jrue Holiday, Marcus Morris, Nikola Vucevic, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin
GPP Plays: Bobby Portis, Zach Lavine, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokoumpo, Mitchell Robinson, Danilo Gallinari