NBA DFS 3/22/2022 - Ben's Game Theory » DFS Karma
Connect with us

Welcome to our NBA DFS Game Theory! In this article, we outline our favorite cash game and GPP options at each position. We utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of our Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

We’re now offering our NBA Package for as little as $5 with our day pass!

 

 

Guards Forwards
Centers Bold Calls
J. Holiday RJ Barrett M. Wagner Trae 50 real points
A. Burks Giannis B. Portis Poole 5+ 3P’s
A. Caruso O. Toppin C. Capela Caruso Top PPD play
I. Quickley M. Morris N. Jokic Portis 20/10 Double Double
J. Poole P. Connaughton W. Carter

 


 

Cash Game Strategy

We have a small four game slate on tap tonight, with what appears to be limited injury news to monitor throughout the day. The big news has already dropped, with Julius Randle out for the Knicks and Khris Middleton sidelined for the Bucks. This is going to push tons of ownership onto the Bucks/Knicks guys, and create a clear path to an optimal or cash game build. With Middleton off the floor, the obvious boosts come to both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. Over the second-half of the season, Giannis is just south of 2 fantasy points per minute with Middleton off the floor, while Holiday comes in at a 1.3 rate. Both of these are pretty significant boosts from their season-long rates. These are going to be core-level plays tonight, with both catching high early projected ownership. I’m comfortable locking them both in, but per usual, I would like some correlation on the opposite side of the game. Most would be looking at Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan or Nikola Vucevic in this event, all of which I’m fine with. That being said, I prefer the savings with Alex Caruso. Caruso has been a around 0.85 fantasy points per minute this season on an average of 27 minutes per game. After last night, Billy Donovan said Caruso will remain a starter moving forward — a game in which he played 33 minutes. If that’s any indication, we should expect mid-30’s in minutes for him moving forward, so let’s take advantage of his price while he is this cheap.

The Knicks are straightforward as well, with Randle off the floor. This season in that split, we see massive boosts in usage for RJ Barrett and Alec Burks. Barret climbs a whopping 9%, while Burks sees a solid 6% spike as well. It’s hard to imagine fading these guys in cash games, at their prices, with these levels of increased production expected. We also have Obi Tobbin for cheap, whose rates don’t jump but should start and see a big increase in minutes.

GPP Strategy

For tournaments, given how chalky cash games will be, this makes it easy to differentiate enough to separate yourself in small-field or single-entry GPPs. One way I love doing that tonight is stuffing in Trae Young with my Knicks players. It’s no secret that Young loves playing at MSG, in his last eight games in the Garden, he’s averaging 34 real points per game. He’s also projecting for less ownership than all of Nikola Jokic, Giannis, and DeMar DeRozan at the top-end pricing tier. Mitchell Robinson falls into the GPP category as well, with him being one of the few Knicks catching a low-ownership projection. He doesn’t see a big boost in rates with Randle off the floor, but we could easily see him have a big game here and I like him as a pivot off some other mid-tier players on Tuesday. Trae Young in my favorite play tonight and he will be a priority for me.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

More in Basketball