Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/4/20 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/4/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. Doncic D. Sabonis A. Drummond DEN/WAS
D. Fox J. Tatum N. Jokic DET/GS
M. Smart G. Hayward S. Adams IND/ATL
B. Hield T. Warren A. Len CHA/DAL
D. White N. Bjelica M. Turner UTA/ORL

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Solid 9 game slate tonight that has no Harden/Lakers. This makes it easier as the only studs we really have are Luka/Giannis. The value we have tonight depends on injury news, but in it’s current state, we have to get news on these players – Beal and Cauley-Stein. It seems more to me that Beal/WCS are more 60/40 to play based on reports, but we’ll have to wait on that news. Walker and Collins are out, so that opens up guys like Smart, Hayward, Brown, Tatum for Boston, and Len for the Hawks.
  • If we are starting roster construction on both sites, I would start with De’Aaron Fox. Fox is in an amazing spot tonight vs the Pelicans who play extremely fast. On top of that, Bog is out and will lead to more minutes for Fox and co. He’s going to be in all my lineups on both sites. I like pairing him with Luka, Aaron Holiday, and even Derrick White.
  • The second player I’ll be building around is Marcus Smart. Smart will start for Kemba as Kemba didn’t travel to CHI. Smart is very cheap and will have the upside we want for both formats. The Fox/Smart pairing on both sites will be the core to all my lineups tonight.
  • Again I like Boston even on the second end of a B2B. I love Tatum and Hayward once again and I don’t mind playing Jaylen Brown either. For now, I’m locking in Smart.
  • On both sites, I love Buddy Hield. I think he’s a perfect piece to pair with Fox/Smart as he’s mid price and has the upside for all formats. He’ll be in a ton of my lineups, other SG pivots I like are Lamb and Bruce Brown.
  • With those players I suggested above, it is now time to jam in a stud. My studs so far are Luka and Drummond. Luka is without KP and THJ again and gets CHA. He’s going to be more of a play on FanDuel where he’s more affordable. With Drummond it’s a perfect bounce back spot where he’s priced due to recent game bias. Today he gets the Warriors who struggle to defend bigs. I think he’s in a nice spot with no Griffin again, and will heavily consider him, and Len for value.
  • Now, for tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Fox, Smart , Hield + [one of Tatum, Brown, Hayward])
      • Luka Doncic
      • Andre Drummond
      • Domantas Sabonis
      • Trae Young
      • Aaron Holiday
      • Alex Len
      • Jeremy Lamb
      • Bruce Brown
      • Nemanja Bjelica
      • Daniel Theis
      • Christian Wood
      • Maxi Kleber
      • Brandon Ingram
      • Derrick White
    • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
    • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
    • New Orleans vs Kings could very well be the game stack tonight. Kings will be in a pace up spot and will have the upside for me to run 2-3 Kings, more specifically Fox, Hield and Bjelica. Run it back with Ball and Ingram/Favors. 
    • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
      • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

 

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