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Karma Nation! We’re coming off our first losing week of the season. I know we can’t win every week, but that is the goal and what we strive! We had some regression last week when Xander missed his first cut of the year by 1 stroke, RCB missed his first cut on PGA tour this year, and Poulter had a melt down over the weekend shooting +7. We are shaking that off and moving onto the Valspar Championship and looking for our 10th winning week in the past 11!
This week the PGA tour visits the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club. Copperhead is a Par 71 7340 yard course that features a rare 5 Par 3s to go along with 4 Par 5s. This Course will be a true test for golfers with one of the toughest finishing stretches in golf! Copperhead is home to the “Snake Pit” holes #16-18. Last year the Par 4 16th hole played at an average of 4.3 strokes making it easily the toughest on course. The Par 3 #17 hole played at 3.1 stokes and the Par 4 18th played at 4.17 strokes meaning if you make it through the Snake Pit at even par that was a big success! If that wasn’t hard enough they have grown out the rough more this year making driving accuracy key to being able to hit the tightly tree lined fairways. The course will also present challenges with several water hazards, elevation changes, sloping greens, and doglegs heading both directions.
For our first bet of the weekend, we look at the Bud Cauley vs Chez Reavie match-up. Cauley had a solid showing at the Players last weekend, gaining 3.9 Strokes Approach which will be key at Copperhead. He has gained positive strokes around the green in 6 straight starts this year. Reavie has been playing bad recently missing 2 of his last 3 cuts and finishing at 65 in his other. He lost SG in all 3 of his last starts. He is negative SG in both birdies gained and bogeys avoided in his past 4 events.
Cauley>Reavie +100 1u
Next up is the Kokrak vs Kisner match-up. Jason Kokrak has been playing some of his best golf of his career this year and enters Copperhead in his best form. He finished 8th here last year gaining 7.8 strokes. He has gained 3.5,8.5,4.7,4.7 SG approach in his past 4 events, and has gained 7+ strokes T2G in 3 of his last 4 events. He has GIR strokes gained in his last 7 starts. Kokrak has some comfort here owning 3 top 15 finishes.
Kokrak>Kisner -125 1u
Dustin Johnson vs Jon Rahm is the next bet to look at. DJ comes in to Copperhead for the first time since 2010 off 5 Top 10s in 6 events. His Strokes gained numbers this season are crazy gaining 10.9 SG total last weekend in a 5th place finish, and 20.3 SG total in his win in Mexico. He gained 9.6 SG approach last weekend. He is #1 in SG approach, T2G, BS, and bogey avoidance this season. His last 3 finishes are 5th, 1st, 9th. Jon Rahm is coming off a disappointing final round at the Players finishing in 12th place after coming into the final round with the lead. This will be a tough course for him to manage with all the trouble and his temper could come into affect here. This is my best bet of the weekend!
Johnson>Rahm -135 2u
Jason Kokrak T20 +225 1u