Vegas odds are arguably the single most important aspect of building lineups in MMA DFS. As a whole, the sport is extremely volatile, but similarly to many other sports, Vegas is one of the best predictors of each outcome over the long run. Odds value, outlined in my MMA DFS – Cash vs GPP article, is the first thing many MMA DFS players look into each weekend. There are other Vegas odds that need to be taken into account when building lineups, though.
Fight Finishing Odds
The first odds that should be taken into account are the odds that the fight as a whole goes to decision. These odds don’t show which of the two fighters is likely to finish, but rather whether the fight as a whole is likely to go to decision or not.
There are only two outcomes for these odds. Yes, the fight will go to decision. No, the fight will not go to decision. Oftentimes, there will be an over/under on total rounds outlined near this bet, as well. The total round is set at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 rounds. The odds are then set for the likelihood that the fight goes over or under that specific time frame.
Targeting fights that are expected to finish inside the distance is a high upside strategy in MMA DFS. The ideal fights to target, specifically in tournaments, are fights that are favored to end within 1.5 rounds.
Fighter Finishing Odds
Each individual fighter will have odds to finish inside the distance, as well. Similarly to the fight finishing odds, this only has two outcomes. A fighter will finish inside the distance or they won’t finish inside the distance. This doesn’t outline the type of way they will finish, but simply if they are likely to win inside the distance or not.
The lower the number, the more likely the fighter is to finish inside the distance. For example, -150 odds are better than +200 odds, which are better than +500 odds. Oftentimes, a couple fighters will have negative odds to finish inside the distance on any given card. They generally are some of the best plays on those slates.
Finishing Round Odds
Finishing round odds are quietly an outstanding tool to use, as it gives you an idea of how a fight could play out. Depending on the fight, there will be odds to win in round 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. This shows the fighters likelihood of finishing in any one particular round.
Once again, the lower the number, the more likely the fighter is to finish in that particular round. It isn’t often that these numbers fall into the negatives, though, as there are too many variables at play. Fighters that are likely to finish their fights in the first two rounds, specifically on FanDuel, are an ideal option because of their increased ceilings.
Fighter Type of Win Odds
There are three possible outcomes for a fighters type of win odds. A win by (T)KO, submission or decision. This utilizes a fighter’s likelihood to finish inside the distance, but elaborates the way in which they are expected to finish.
These odds outline the type of fight specific fighters need. For example, Fighter A could boast +220 odds to win via (T)KO, while Fighter B possesses +220 odds to win via submission. Fighter A is likely to keep this fight standing, utilizing his striking, while Fighter B will need to use his grappling to find a finish.
Utilizing Vegas odds will allow you to predict how fights are going to play out. This allows you to make an educated prediction as to who boasts the most upside and downside. These four categories outline how likely a fight is to finish, how likely a fighter is to finish, how long the fight is expected to go, and the type of finish.
You shouldn’t solely be using Vegas odds to predict fights, but this is where all of your research should start. It will give you an idea of what is likely to happen, allowing you to confidently script fights for both cash games and tournaments.