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Course(s): Pebble Beach GL // Monterey Peninsula CC // Spyglass Hill GC

Fast Facts

• Pebble Beach GL Par 72; ≈ 7000 yards with VERY small greens (3500 sq. ft.; smallest on TOUR)
  • Monterey Peninsula CC Par 71; ≈ 7000 yards with smaller greens (5000 sq. ft. avg)
  • Spyglass Hill GC Par 72; ≈ 7000 yards (normally plays as the “toughest” course)
• Average Cut: -5 (after 3 day cut)
• Field: 156 players with Top 60 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
  • El Camaleon (OHL Mayakoba)
  • Port Royal CC (Bermuda Championship)
  • Sea Island (Seaside Course; RSM Classic)
  • Waialae CC (Sony Open)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Daniel Berger, Lucas Glover, Maverick McNealy, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Brian Gay, Joel Dahmen, Russell Knox, Kevin Kisner

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150 yards)
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Poa)
• Bogey Avoidance

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Justin Rose ($9,600) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 4^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 3^rd

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 33^rd // 9^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 39^th // 6^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: Rose seems to have really found something recently with 3 T12 finishes or better in his last 4 including Top 20 in ball striking in each of those weeks; Rose has made his last 8 cuts on TOUR and while he hasn’t played this tournament in a few years, he does have a T6 and T39 to his name along with a T3 finish at the US Open here in 2019 to go along with a bump for his short game as an above-average Poa putter

2) Cameron Tringale ($9,500) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 7^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 6^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 6^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 16^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // MC // 7^th // 2^nd // 59^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 7^th // 64^th // 53^rd // 47^th // MC // 13^th // 22^nd // 61^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 63^rd

Notes: Tringale is getting more buzz than I thought being so close to what should be a chalky Rose/McNealy/Day but his form is terrific with a T3/T7/T2 in 3 of his last 5 starts, positive SG on APP and T2G in 3 straight events, and on his best putting surface; Tringale’s weakness is usually off the tee, which should be mitigated here, and he’s a solid play in all formats with a Top 25 or better rank in all key stats I’m weighing this week

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Kevin Kisner ($9,000) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 74^th // 15^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 74^th // 13^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 86^th // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 14^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 1^st

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th // 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // 8^th // MC // 54^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 38^th // 28^th // MC // 10^th // MC // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 12^th

Notes: I almost never play Kisner but he seems to be getting very little chatter this week despite a course that should suit his game: hit the fairway/stick your wedges/make your putts; I was off Kisner for a while when his ball striking was bad and he was making every putt but he’s now finished T8/T3 in his last 2 starts, gained on APP in both of those starts, and while he doesn’t have “elite” course history, he has played here a lot and finished T10 a few years ago

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Patrick Cantlay → pOWN%: 24%

Play/Fade/Context: Similar to Rahm (every week), there’s not really any reason to view Cantlay as a fade, aside from ownership, with his last 6 starts a T23/T11/1^st/1^st/4^th/9^th… LOL, wow; Cantlay ranks top 5 in the field in T2G/GIRs/BoB/Bogey Avoidance and as if the stats/form wasn’t strong, he also is 5/5 in made cuts here with a T3 last year, T11 in 2020, and T9 in 2013… seems good?

Daniel Berger → pOWN%: 21%

Play/Fade/Context: Speaking of course history… Berger’s starts at this tourney have resulted in a 1^st/5^th/10^th… pretty good!He ranks 2^nd in the field in SG: T2G/10^th SG: APP/9^th BoB and has gained strokes on APP in EVERY SINGLE MEASURED TOURNAMENT since LAST YEAR’S AT&T PRO AM… that’s 15 in a row; he’s gained T2G in 9 straight measured events and has a win, 3 T10s, 3 T5s, and 4 T20s or better in his last 17 events… nice

Maverick McNealy → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: I love Mav and play him most weeks; however, at what could be the highest or top 3 highest owned, he may be worth a fade in GPPs… he’s played superb here in his last 2 starts with a T2 and a T5, he’s an elite ball striker (especially on smaller greens), and good Poa putter but it may be tough to get past the pOWN%… especially since I like Rose/Tringale at a cheaper price/lower ownership

Jason Day → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: Day’s course history at Pebble is absurd to say the least with 9 of 10 made cuts and finishes of 7^th/4^th/4^th/2^nd/5^th/11^th/4^th/MC/6^th over those 10… just wow; however, I’m not sure this mega chalk is warranted as he finished T3 last week, but it was the first time he’d gained strokes on APP since last July and first T10 or better since last June… I get it and he’ll probably burn me with another T5 but I’m fine fading at his pOWN%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (48 players):

Plays

1) Mackenzie Hughes ($8,400) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 16^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 71^st // 32^nd

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 5^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 5^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 2^nd // 29^th // 4^th / /25^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // MC // MC // 10^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 130^th

Notes: One of the better putters on TOUR, somehow who tilts me to no end on a weekly basis, and a similar game to that of Kisner; Hughes has a T2/T4 in 2 of his last 4 starts, has gained strokes on APP in his last 2 and along with great putting is a strong scrambler as well; I love seeing Hughes’ ranks in what should be paramount this week: 1^st in BoB, 10^th in GIRs Gained, and 13^th in SG: Putting on Poa

2) Lucas Glover ($7,800) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 4^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 9^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 56^th // 29^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 140^th // 46^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 74^th // 33^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 5^th // 35^th // MC // 5^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 50^th // 7^th // 11^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 5^th  

Notes: Eating potential Lucas Glover chalk has never once worked out but he just seems like such a good price this week and one of the few guys below 8k I believe can actually win (famous last words); while a laughable putter, we know this, Glover’s ball striking continues to be strong with 7 made cuts in his last 8 starts and gaining on APP in 7 of those 8, T2G in 6 of those 8, and has actually GAINED STROKES PUTTING IN 3 OF HIS LAST 4… just putt average and we have some serious value?

3) Greyson Sigg ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 8^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 9^th // 4^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 25^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 98^th // 35^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 34^th // 25^th // 42^nd // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 47^th

Notes: Young guy fresh off the KFT TOUR, Greyson “Smokin” Sigg(s) has shown great ball striking in his limited starts, gaining strokes T2G in his last 5, gaining on APP in his last 4, and fits perfectly with guys I like as a poor putter who’s lost strokes in 4 of his last 5 starts… while he doesn’t have any high finishes (yet), at only 7k we want a cut maker with upside, and that’s what Sigg gives us with a great T2G game of his last several starts

 

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Troy Merritt ($7,200) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 29^th // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 57^th // 25^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 108^th // 40^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 77^th // 37^th

• SG: Putting (Poa) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 91^st // 30^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 22^nd // 40^th // 28^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 16^th // 25^th // 8^th // MC // MC // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 17^th  

Notes: Merritt seems to burn me more often than not, so naturally I play him often; 3 straight finishes of T25 or better at Pebble, a T28/T15/T22 in his 3 starts before a MC at the Amex, and his best historically putting surface is Poa; Merritt can struggle on longer courses but his best proximity range is the key range for me this week, 125-150, and he can get a hot putter and rack up birdies

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Mito Pereira → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: Mito continues to churn out solid finishes with T29/T29/T25 in his last 3 starts and more surprising is how well he’s putted over those events… is the putting an outlier or is he not as bad as we thought? Not sure yet, but I think he’s a strong play in all formats with my only worry being now priced at 8300, he probably needs a T15 or so to really pay off the salary

Russell Knox → pOWN%: 13%

Play/Fade/Context: It’ll burn me but I’m just not playing a chalk Russell Knox… I get the ball striking, I get the course history with a T7/T14/T15 in 3 of his last 4 at Pebble… but the putting and him being a “chalk value option” really scares me off… not to mention, he’s missed 3 of his last 5 cuts and lost over TWELVE strokes putting over his last 3 events

Matthew NeSmith → pOWN%: 13%

Play/Fade/Context: NeSmith has an elite SG: APP game, has played Pebble well in his 2 starts with a T11/T16, and has actually turned the putter (normally his weakness) around some lately; I don’t love his form with negative strokes gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, but I’ll bet on the long-term ball striking here and have some exposure to him in GPPs

OTHERS I LIKE: Denny McCarthy // Matt Kuchar // Andrew Putnam // Keith Mitchell // Alex Smalley

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (91 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Ryan Armour ($6,900) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Not in the greatest form and not even the greatest player… however, the options below 7k this week are TOUGH, and Armour at least fits the bill as a short hitter who hits a lot of fairways, he excels considerably in weaker fields and his stats aren’t the worst: 21^st in the field in SG: T2G, 22^nd SG: APP, and 2^nd in Fairways Gained; just needs to avoid the big numbers and putt average

2) Satoshi Kodaira ($6,900) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Kodaira is a bizarre player who won the RBC Heritage back in 2018 and has been quiet since… in his last 15 starts he has 8 MC and 5 T20s or better… talk about boom or bust; although still using stats from last season (like many others), Kodaira does rank 17^th in the field in SG: APP, 26^th in Bogey Avoidance, and is on the only surface (Poa) that he’s historically gained strokes putting

3) James Hahn ($6,700) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: I keep playing Hahn (to bad results with 3 straight MC) but the ball striking is much better than the finishes indicate as he’s gained strokes T2G in 5 straight events, gained on APP in his last 2, and just has had a terrible putting streak; Hahn can flash out of nowhere and rack up birdies as his stats look strong: 18^th in the field SG: T2G, 27^th SG: APP, 13^th GIRs Gained, and 29^th in Bogey Avoidance; his course history is poor with 3 MC in a row but he has played here a lot and finished T3 back in 2013

4) Brian Gay ($6,400) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Pure course history punt as Brian Gay has terrible form with 4 MC in his last 6; however, I view him similar to a Luke Donald at the RBC Heritage or Webb at Wyndham in that his form can be suspect but get him on a course he likes and has played well and we can risk the bad form/bad stats; Gay has made 7 of 8 cuts at Pebble including his last 4 with a T7 and T8 in that span and is one of the best putters on tour, ranking 7^th in the field in SG: Putting on Poa

 

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Daniel Berger

3) Maverick McNealy

4) Denny McCarthy

5) Russell Knox

6) Lucas Glover

7) Matt Kuchar

8) Pat Perez

9) Alex Smalley

10) Greyson Sigg/Vaughn Taylor/Ryan Armour

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 15% Course History

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Daniel Berger
3. Justin Rose
4. Cameron Tringale
5. Maverick McNealy
6. Seamus Power
7. Lanto Griffin
8. Jason Day
9. Lucas Glover
10. Will Zalatoris
11. Tom Hoge
12. Mackenzie Hughes
13. Denny McCarthy
14. Russell Knox
15. Ryan Palmer
16. Pat Perez
17. Aaron Rai
18. Kevin Kisner
19. Keith Mitchell
20. Michael Thompson