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Course: TPC Southwind, Memphis, TN

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7200 yards
• Average Cut: -2
• Field: 121 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Colonial CC
  • Harbour Town GL
  • Innisbrook (Copperhead)
  • Pebble Beach GL
  • Sea Island (Seaside)
  • TPC Craig Ranch
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-200 yards)
• SG: OTT
• Fairways Gained
• BoB Gained
• Scrambling
• SG: Par 4s 450-500

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (16 players):

Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 21^st
• SG: Approach → 23^rd
• SG: OTT → 28^th
• Fairways Gained → 89^th
• BoB Gained → 3^rd
• Scrambling → 2^nd
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 18^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // 8^th // 4^th // 13^th // 14^th       

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 11^th // MC // 12^th // 8^th // 10^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd

Notes: Love targeting Cantlay on Par 70s/Bermuda greens no matter his form/history, etc. but it doesn’t hurt that this week he comes in with impeccable form as he’s finished T3/T14/T13/T4/T8/T2 over his last 6 starts and when looking at the 2022 season he has SEVEN (7!!!) T5 finishes or better to go along with consistent stats across the board and 4 finishes of T12 or better in 5 starts at TPC Southwind

2) Will Zalatoris ($9,500) → pOWN%: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 7^th
• SG: Approach → 5^th
• SG: OTT → 18^th
• Fairways Gained → 57^th
• BoB Gained → 5^th
• Scrambling → 109^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // 20^th // 28^th // MC // 2^nd     

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 92^nd

Notes: I much prefer Zalatoris on this course compared to last week as this course can play sneaky tough with very penal rough and playing above average in distance due to only 2 Par 5s and 7200-7300 yards… everyone has seen what Zalatoris has done in the majors/big events but I think this is the week he finally gets that elusive first win; 6 finishes this season of T6 or better, and per his stats, Zalatoris is Top 10 in the field in SG: T2G, SG: BS, SG: APP, BoB, Opportunities Gained (approaches to 15 feet or less), and SG: Par 4s 450-500… just need the putter to be around average/above average…

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Jordan Spieth ($9,100) → pOWN%: 9%

• SG: T2G → 50^th
• SG: Approach → 70^th
• SG: OTT → 52^nd
• Fairways Gained → 78^th
• BoB Gained → 10^th
• Scrambling → 55^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 15^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 8^th // 10^th // MC // 37^th // 18^th     

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 73^rd // MC // 6^th // 25^th // 2^nd     

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Hard to glean too much from Spieth’s recent stats as he hasn’t played since The Open Championship, which he finished T8 yet it had no SG data, so we don’t have measured SG stats since around the time he was playing the Travelers in late June; nevertheless, Spieth ranks 1^st in my course comp model, has an elite ARG game, and in his last few measured starts it seems like he may have FINALLY figured something out with the putter… has a T6/T2/T25 here in 3 of his 5 starts

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Tony Finau → pOWN%: 22%

Sungjae Im → pOWN%: 20%

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 18%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (40 players):

Plays

1) Aaron Wise (7,700) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 27^th
• SG: Approach → 38^th
• SG: OTT → 19^th
• Fairways Gained → 81^st
• BoB Gained → 54^th
• Scrambling → 25^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // 34^th // MC // 27^th // 2^nd  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 21^st // 43^rd // 5^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 88^th

Notes: I can’t tell how popular Wise will get this week, but he looks to me as one of the better values in the field as he’s made 8 of his last 9 cuts with a T6/T2/T13 in 3 of those 8 while gaining strokes T2G in every event but one since March (gained in 11 of 12); 3 for 3 in cuts at Southwind with a T21 in 2021 and while I do have some worries about the driving accuracy, Wise has shown a much improved short game this year that we’ve seen at places like Memorial, the US Open, and PGA Championship that makes him overall one of my favorite plays in both cash and GPPs

2) Corey Conners ($7,600) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 15^th
• SG: Approach → 30^th
• SG: OTT → 13^th
• Fairways Gained → 7^th
• BoB Gained → 53^rd
• Scrambling → 84^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 39^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // 28^th // 61^st // MC // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 8^th // 25^th // 21^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 5^th  

Notes: Likely to be one of the chalkiest players in GPPs/Cash but it makes sense as Conners comes to a premier “ball strikers” course and he’s one of the best in the world in that category (7^th in this field); hits a ton of fairways, hits a ton of greens, and while not every event has measured SG data, there’s a good chance Conners has had a positive SG: OTT in every event since February of 2021… it will come down to the putter, which isn’t great, but Conners has shown this year to have some spike weeks surrounded by many negative putting weeks

3) Chris Kirk ($7,400) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 47^th
• SG: Approach → 44^th
• SG: OTT → 35^th
• Fairways Gained → 11^th
• BoB Gained → 97^th
• Scrambling → 10^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 32^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 42^nd // 71^st // 7^th // 53^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 56^th // 78^th // 40^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 67^th  

Notes: I don’t play Kirk that often, but he comes in having made his last 7 cuts in a row and while some finishes are mediocre at best, he does have a T5 at the PGA Champ, T7 at the RBC Canadian, and T17 at the Rocket Mortgage in that span of 7 and albeit less distance than him, has the same OTT pedigree as Conners, having gained strokes OTT in every event since October 2021… even more impressive, Kirk has gained strokes on APP in 12 of his last 13 measured events, is 3 for 3 in made cuts here, and makes up for a lack of distance with a strong short game (10^th in Scrambling/34^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda)

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Emiliano Grillo ($7,000) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 10^th
• SG: Approach → 28^th
• SG: OTT → 3^rd
• Fairways Gained → 26^th
• BoB Gained → 14^th
• Scrambling → 106^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 → 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // MC // 2^nd // MC // 28^th      

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // 44^th // MC // 48^th // 29^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 20^th

Notes: After missing nearly every cut (or so it seems) for about a year, it seems like Grillo has found something over his last 9/10 events as he has 2 T2 finishes in his last 3 starts, has made 7 of his last 9 cuts, and has gained T2G in 7 of his last 8 measured events, gained OTT in 6 straight measured events, and ranks 20^th in my course comp ranks… I feel uneasy about listing Grillo as a core play as we all know what he’s capable of in the SG: Putting department (he can truly be historically bad), but at only 7000, in good form, and likely well under 10% owned I’ll play him in GPPs for the potential upside

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Joohyung Kim → pOWN%: 18%

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 16%

Scott Stallings → pOWN%: 11%

OTHERS I LIKE: Billy Horschel // Russell Henley // Mito Pereira // Keegan Bradley

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (65 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Mark Hubbard ($6,900) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: MC on the number 2 weeks ago and a mediocre finish at Wyndham, but Hubbard is still in the midst of great form with a T4/T3/T13 in 3 of his last 5 and making 7 of his last 8 cuts on TOUR; the Approach play has been strong as Hubbard ranks 14^th in the field in SG: APP along with 27^th in Fairways Gained, 27^th in SG: Ball-Striking (SG: OTT + SG: APP)

2) Troy Merritt ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Although this course plays long, Merritt hits a TON of fairways, ranking 2^nd in the field in Fairways Gained, 8^th on Par 4s 450-500, and Top 30 in SG: OTT, BoB, and GIRs Gained… despite being a short hitter, Merritt is a great long iron player, has made his last 3 cuts in a row, has a T29 and T12 in 4 starts here, and quietly ranks 15^th in my course comp rankings

3) Kevin Streelman ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Streels has had an up-and-down year but before last week’s MC he had made 4 cuts in a row with a near win (T2) and a T25 in that span and similar to Merritt, what he lacks in distance he makes up in fairways, ranking 5^th in the field in Fairways Gained; 20^th T2G, 24^th SG: APP, 23^rd Scrambling, and Top 40 in SG: BS/GIRs/SG: Par 4s 450-500, Streels can be a great value at low ownership but it comes down to the flat stick (as it usually does)

4) Martin Laird ($6,500) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Laird has been pretty consistent, at least in the ball-striking category, the last several weeks, making 6 of his last 9 cuts with 4 T30 finishes or better in that span; while a T30 isn’t groundbreaking, at only 6500, a T30 or better would be great value and then some… Laird ranks 32^nd in the field SG: T2G, 36^th SG: APP, 9^th Fairways Gained, 11^th Scrambling, and 20^th in GIRs Gained… the putter? It sucks, but we can’t have it all at only 6500 and Laird has at least made 3 of 4 cuts at TPC Southwind

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Tony Finau

3) Will Zalatoris

4) Sungjae Im

5) Billy Horschel

6) Russell Henley

7) Corey Conners

8) Brendan Steele

9) Emiliano Grillo

10) Mark Hubbard

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 10% of my course comp model ranking

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Tony Finau
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Sungjae Im
7. Justin Thomas
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Cameron Smith
10. Jordan Spieth
11. Billy Horschel
12. Viktor Hovland
13. Jon Rahm
14. Will Zalatoris
15. Scott Stallings
16. Cameron Davis
17. Cameron Young
18. Taylor Pendrith
19. Chez Reavie
20. Russell Henley