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Course: Sedgefield CC, Greensboro, NC

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7100 yards
• Average Cut: -2
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Colonial CC
  • Detroit GC
  • East Lake CC
  • Harbour Town GL
  • Sea Island (Seaside)
  • TPC River Highlands
  • Waialae CC
• Top Course Fit Targets: Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Corey Conners, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Harold Varner III, Lucas Glover, Jason Day, Brian Harman, Russell Henley

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• SG: Par 4s 400-450
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (15 players):

Plays

1) Shane Lowry ($10,600) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 1^st
• SG: Approach → 3^rd
• BoB Gained → 24^th
• SG: OTT → 17^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 73^rd
• Fairways Gained → 54^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 20^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // 9^th // MC // 10^th // 32^nd      

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 23^rd // MC // 7^th // 42^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 17^th

Notes: Was deciding between Lowry or Sungjae for my favorite play above 10k and while I like Sungjae as well, I think Lowry could come in decently lower owned (25% or so for Im vs. 16-18% for Lowry)… Lowry is playing elite golf this year, ranking 1^st in the field T2G, 3^rd SG: APP, 17^th SG: OTT, 9^th GIRs Gained, and 20^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda… the only thing he hasn’t done is win! Lowry has made 9 of his last 10 cuts (only MC was the US Open), gained T2G in all 9 of those events, and rates out well in my course comp model with a lot of high finishes at Harbour Town GL and 3 of 4 made cuts at Sedgefield

2) Corey Conners ($9,600) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 9^th
• SG: Approach → 42^nd
• BoB Gained → 23^rd
• SG: OTT → 9^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 37^th
• Fairways Gained → 13^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 45^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 28^th // 61^st // MC // 6^th // 13^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 22^nd // 45^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: In the spirit of winning the first time in a while (i.e. Xander/Finau this year), it sure seems like a win is LONG overdue for Conners… his putting will always be his biggest weakness, but he’s shown improvement in that category this season, sporting positive SG: P stats, on average, over his last 5/10/20 events (per FantasyNational)… a ball striking machine throughout his career, Conners is Top 10 in the field in SG: T2G, SG: OTT, GIRs Gained, and ranks 13^th in Fways Gained/23^rd BoB… if he can get a hot putter, he has definite win/T5 upside

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Denny McCarthy ($8,900) → pOWN%: 15%

• SG: T2G → 68^th
• SG: Approach → 65^th
• BoB Gained → 39^th
• SG: OTT → 110^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 24^th
• Fairways Gained → 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 6^th // MC // 7^th // 5^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 15^th // 9^th // 22^nd // 36^th    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 58^th

Notes: Denny is definitely not going to be “low owned,” but I’m hoping he stays under 15% or so with a chalky Si Woo right below him… we know the story with Denny: tremendous putter (2^nd in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda) who can get hot irons once in a while… interestingly enough, Denny comes into this week with a T7/T6/T5 in 3 of his last 5 and despite consistently losing strokes OTT, he DOES hit a lot of fairways, which I’m weighing much more heavily vs. distance this week

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Sungjae Im → pOWN%: 25%

Si Woo Kim → pOWN%: 22%

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 20%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (49 players):

Plays

1) Brian Harman ($8,300) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 10^th
• SG: Approach → 38^th
• BoB Gained → 36^th
• SG: OTT → 8^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 67^th
• Fairways Gained → 17^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // MC // 8^th // 43^rd // 18^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – MC // 27^th // 6^th // MC // MC // MC // 3^rd // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 9^th

Notes: We haven’t seen Harman since the Open Championship, where he finished T6, and this course seems like a great fit for his game despite not having tremendous course history (2 T6s or better along with 5 MC over 8 starts); I’ll forgive Harman for a MC at the Genesis Scottish as it’s such a different type of course and if we look over his full season, Harman has 5 T10 or better finishes, 2 T20 finishes or better, and has made 13 of 17 cuts

2) Adam Long ($7,700) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 16^th
• SG: Approach → 75^th
• BoB Gained → 65^th
• SG: OTT → 59^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 29^th
• Fairways Gained → 45^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 16^th // 13^th // 25^th // 21^st // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 31^st // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 41^st

Notes: Normally one of the more volatile players in a field like this, Long has been solid and consistent over the last several weeks with 4 straight T25 or better finishes, has gained OTT in 5 straight events, and gained T2G & on Approach in 3 of his last 4… ranks 1^st in the field in GIRs Gained, 14^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda, and top 20 in SG: Ball-Striking… at only 7700, he’s a great value with high scoring upside

3) Chez Reavie ($7,400) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 18^th
• SG: Approach → 91^st
• BoB Gained → 35^th
• SG: OTT → 68^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 59^th
• Fairways Gained → 1^st
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 151^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 49^th // 1^st // MC // 8^th // 27^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – MC // MC // 48^th // 37^th // MC // MC // MC // 58^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 68^th  

Notes: I was lucky to avoid Chez last week as I almost played him on my main team, but I’ll go right back this week as he’s coming off a win just a few weeks ago, at a course that should fit his game, and he’s only 7400… the course history is BAD, no doubt about that; however, 1) that should keep his ownership down and 2) if nothing else, we can take away that he at least knows this course with 8 starts; per his stats, Reavie is 18^th in the field T2G, 1^st in Fairways Gained, 4^th in Opportunities Gained, and 6^th in GIRs Gained… if he stays low owned, he could be great leverage at only 7400

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Taylor Moore ($7,300) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 27^th
• SG: Approach → 121^st
• BoB Gained → 30^th
• SG: OTT → 18^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 41^st
• Fairways Gained → 59^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda) → 110^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 65^th // 21^st // 24^th // 56^th     

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 27^th

Notes: I’m a little surprised there’s not more buzz on Moore after a solid T6 finish last week, which now gives him 3 T24 finishes or better in his last 4 starts; Moore is great OTT, gaining in that SG category in 4 straight events, has gained T2G in 3 straight, and has turned around the putter from earlier in the season; similar to a lot of guys in the lower 7k range, his biggest issue can be the flat stick, but he hits a ton of greens (11^th in the field) and as seen last week, has serious birdie upside

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

J.T. Poston → pOWN%: 16%

Scott Stallings → pOWN%: 15%

Adam Svensson → pOWN%: 14%

OTHERS I LIKE: J.T. Poston // Aaron Wise // Mark Hubbard // Sebastian Munoz // Kevin Streelman // Adam Svensson // Martin Laird

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (88 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Hayden Buckley ($6,900) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Has now made his last 6 cuts and stayed just about the same price… has gained OTT in 11 straight events, gained on APP in 7 straight, and T2G in 4 straight… his biggest weakness is the putter, which begs the question if he can make enough birdies; however, the sub 7k range is weak AF this week and Buckley brings strong cut-making upside and value at what should be sub 5% owned again

2) Chesson Hadley ($6,900) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: MC last week after a tough Friday, but Hadley is also one of the more volatile players in most any field with big birdie upside but susceptible to big numbers… before last week he had 2 T10s and a T5 in 3 of his last 4 and while the course history isn’t spectacular, he did finish T15 last year and has made the cut at Sedgefield in 5 of his last 6 tries

3) James Hahn ($6,800) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Similar to Hadley, James Hahn has T10 or better upside as exhibited by back to back T9s in May at the Wells Fargo and AT&T Byron Nelson as well as a T4 at the 3M; however, he has also missed 3 of his last 6 cuts… the good news for Hahn is his poor ARG game shouldn’t kill him here and he’s 49^th in the field in SG: T2G, 32^nd SG: OTT, and 23^rd in Opportunities Gained (App. Shots hit to 15 feet or less)

Cash Game Options

1) Will Zalatoris

2) Webb Simpson

3) Shane Lowry

4) Corey Conners

5) Mark Hubbard

6) Adam Long

7) Kevin Streelman

8) Adam Svensson

9) Chez Reavie

10) Vince Whaley

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 10% of my course comp model ranking

1. Brian Harman
2. Billy Horschel
3. J.T. Poston
4. Scott Stallings
5. Sungjae Im
6. Kevin Streelman
7. Shane Lowry
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Mark Hubbard
10. Taylor Pendrith
11. Corey Conners
12. Martin Laird
13. Denny McCarthy
14. Adam Svensson
15. Adam Scott
16. Joohyung Kim
17. Tyrrell Hatton
18. Brendon Todd
19. Aaron Wise
20. Justin Rose