All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

Sign up for the BEST STATS DATABASE for DFS Golf at fantasynational.com/dfskarma

Course: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, IL

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7300 yards
• Average Cut: -2/-3
• Field: 156 players with Top 70 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • East Lake
  • GC of Houston
  • Memorial Park GC
  • Silverado Resort & Spa
  • The Summit Club
  • TPC River Highlands
  • TPC Scottsdale
• Top Course Fit Targets: Chez Reavie, Charles Howell III, Steve Stricker, Mark Hubbard, Maverick McNealy, Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala, Adam Long, Kevin Streelman, Jason Day

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• GIRs Gained
• SG: ARG
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (13 players):

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($10,600) → pOWN%: 27%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 5^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 13^th
• BoB Gained → 12^th
• SG: OTT → 17^th
• GIRs Gained → 22^nd
• SG: ARG → 49^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 55^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // MC // 27^th // 20^th // MC  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 6^th  

Notes: The “class” of this field (yikes) but Webb has really been rounding into form with a T20/T27/T13 in 3 of his last 4 with the MC coming at the US Open on the number after a late R2 triple (smh)… good fit for this course that rewards strong wedge/a hot putter; has gained strokes T2G in 7 of his last 8 events, gained on OTT in 8 straight, and gained on APP in his last 7… plus, we have limited options up here and even if he’s chalk, he feels like the “best” play by a decent margin

2) Scott Stallings ($8,900) → pOWN%: 23%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 13^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 1^st
• BoB Gained → 11^th
• SG: OTT → 62^nd
• GIRs Gained → 70^th
• SG: ARG → 107^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 44^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 8^th // MC // MC // 4^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 55^th // 18^th // MC // 5^th // 16^th // MC // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 18^th

Notes: I normally wouldn’t pay a premium price for someone like Stallings who’s very high risk/reward as his last 4 finishes are T4/MC/MC/T8; however, given the lack of quality options, I know Stallings can score, he has finished T25 or better in 5 of his last 10, and while his ARG game sucks, the putter has looked better this season and he has some of the best eagle making ability of anyone in the top tier

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,100) → pOWN%: 13%

• SG: T2G → 42^nd
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 41^st
• BoB Gained → 84^th
• SG: OTT → 48^th
• GIRs Gained → 53^rd
• SG: ARG → 87^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 15^th // MC // 12^th // 32^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 126^th

Notes: Stats don’t look great and the form has tailed off over the last few months, but only a few tournaments ago, I think C Bez would have been chalk as he fits this course to a tee (no pun intended): hit wedges close and get a hot putter… Bez hasn’t shown the birdie/finish upside recently, but is 4^th in the field in Bogey Avoidance, 14^th in SG: Putting on Bent, and has managed to still make 6 of his last 8 cuts with a T12/T15 in 2 of his last 4

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Adam Hadwin → pOWN%: 22%

Patrick Rodgers → pOWN%: 20%

Charles Howell III → pOWN%: 19%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (45 players):

Plays

1) Chez Reavie ($7,900) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 11^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 11^th
• BoB Gained → 24^th
• SG: OTT → 39^th
• GIRs Gained → 3^rd
• SG: ARG → 30^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 49^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 8^th // 27^th // MC // 15^th // 13^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 18^th // MC // 39^th // 65^th // 15^th // 68^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: With a lack of big names Chez could get chalky this week but the stats have looked solid over the last several tournaments, notably 11^th in the field T2G, 11^th SG: APP, 9^th Bogey Avoidance, 3^rd GIRs Gained, and 14^th in Opportunities Gained; further, Chez has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with 3 finishes of T15 or better and a T27 at the Charles Schwab… good course fit (as seen by his #1 ranking in my course comp model) as a short hitter who finds the fairways and has a solid wedge game

2) John Huh ($7,800) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 4^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 8^th
• BoB Gained → 9^th
• SG: OTT → 19^th
• GIRs Gained → 14^th
• SG: ARG → 6^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 84^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // 25^th // 12^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 50^th // 7^th // MC // 64^th // 50^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 40^th

Notes: Johnny ???? has been playing some solid golf lately with 3 straight finishes of T12/T25/T13 in which he’s gained strokes T2G/OTT/APP/ARG in all 3 while (per usual) struggling with the putter; similar to Chez, this is a rare course fit(ish) for Huh????? as a shorter hitter who finds fairways and is a good wedge player… will he find the flat stick? Probably not but he ranks 1^st in my stat model and has made 4 of his last 5 cuts at TPC Deere Run

3) Nate Lashley ($7,200) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 33^rd
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 52^nd
• BoB Gained → 8^th
• SG: OTT → 23^rd
• GIRs Gained → 49^th
• SG: ARG → 80^th
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 36^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 25^th // MC // MC // 17^th // 11^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 26^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: Similar to Stallings, Lashley is a consistent ball striker but miserable ARG, which could be worrisome, but at only 7200 he’s a great value as someone who’s gained OTT in 5 straight events, has a T11/T17/T25 in 3 of his last 5 (MC the other 2), ranks 8^th in BoB Gained, and feels mispriced vs. his Vegas odds at his price tag (33^rd in my T5/T20 odds but only the 46^th most expensive player)

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Ryan Armour ($7,100) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 14^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 33^rd
• BoB Gained → 72^nd
• SG: OTT → 14^th
• GIRs Gained → 34^th
• SG: ARG → 53^rd
• SG: Putting (bent emphasis) → 42^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 35^th // MC // 25^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // MC // MC // 60^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 64^th

Notes: His finishing position is pretty limited with no finish better than T20 this season but when he’s made cuts he hasn’t finished worse than T35 (10 events this season with 6 finishes T35 or better); hits a ton of fairways, has gained strokes T2G in 6 straight events, gained OTT in 7 of his last 8 measured events and given the field is one of the better values and a “safeish” low-tier cash game/SE play

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Adam Svensson → pOWN%: 15%

Chris Gotterup → pOWN%: 12%

OTHERS I LIKE: Lanto Griffin // Adam Schenk // Adam Svennson // Mark Hubbard // Chesson Hadley

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (94 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brice Garnett ($6,900) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Only use him in weak fields (we definitely have that here) as he can get an insanely hot putter… form is up and down, but finished T15 at the Byron Nelson (weaker field), T33 at the Mexico Open (very weak field)… gained on APP in 3 of his last 5, gained ARG in 5 of his last 7, and ranks top 40 in my course comps model

2) Lee Hodges ($6,900) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Could be a sample size issue but does “pop” (all relative for this field) in the stat model: 18^th in the field SG: Ball Striking, 5^th SG: APP, 14^th Bogey Avoidance, 9^th GIRs Gained, and Top 50 in SG: T2G and SG: Putting on Bent; made his last 3 cuts, gaining on APP in all 3, gaining T2G in his last 2, and he should have more upside than usual in this weak event

3) Rory Sabbatini ($6,800) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: We’re really dumpster diving below 7k this week but Sabbatini does rank 20^th in the field SG: T2G, 31^st SG: OTT, 15^th SG: ARG, 39^th BoB Gained and he does have a few T20s at this event in the past… should be sub 5% and he should have higher cut making equity than those around him

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Charles Howell III

3) Adam Long

4) Lanto Griffin

5) J.T. Poston

6) Chez Reavie

7) John Huh????

8) Adam Svensson

9) Steve Stricker

10) Ryan Armour

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 5% of my course comp model ranking

1. Adam Hadwin
2. Chez Reavie
3. Sahith Theegala
4. T. Poston
5. Scott Stallings
6. John Huh
7. Brendon Todd
8. Steve Stricker
9. Nick Hardy
10. Webb Simpson
11. Patrick Rodgers
12. Adam Long
13. Adam Svensson
14. Charles Howell III
15. Cameron Davis
16. Adam Schenk
17. Nate Lashley
18. Denny McCarthy
19. Chris Gotterup
20. Lanto Griffin