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Course: TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, CT

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7200-7400 yards
• Average Cut: -1
• Field: 156 players with Top 70 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Sedgefield CC
  • Colonial CC
  • Harbour Town GL
  • Waialae CC
  • Innisbrook CC
• Top Course Fit Targets: Sam Burns, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Harold Varner III, Webb Simpson, Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Kevin Kisner

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• BoB Gained
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Par 4s 400-450
• Bogey Avoidance

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (20 players):

Plays

1) Sam Burns ($10,400) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 7^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 1^st
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 43^rd
• BoB Gained → 3^rd
• GIRs Gained → 3^rd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 47^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 27^th // 4^th // 1^st // 20^th // MC  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 13^th // 24^th // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 1^st   

Notes: I rarely play Burns as he’s usual chalk and I don’t like paying 10k+ for a volatile player but his form is elite right now with 2 wins, a T4, T20, and T27 in 5 of his last 7 starts and gaining a TON of strokes T2G and on APP over his last 6-8 events; has played TPC River Highlands 3 times, making all 3 cuts, and on a course that could be in the -18 to -20 winner range, it suits Burns’ game perfectly as an extreme birdie-maker and consistently strong putter

2) Mito Pereira ($8,700) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 4^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 4^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 9^th
• BoB Gained → 14^th
• GIRs Gained → 20^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 3^rd
• Bogey Avoidance → 53^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 13^th // 7^th // 3^rd // 17^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 27^th

Notes: Many thought, me included, that Mito could see some down tournaments after his PGA Championship collapse but the form has remained superb; US Open was his first MC in 8 starts and in the previous 7 he had a T3/T7/T13/T13 in 4 of those 7 while gaining strokes T2G in his previous 10 starts prior to the US Open; ball striking is great, and while the putter can be his Achilles heel, just an average week on the greens gives him T10 or better upside

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Tony Finau ($9,500) → pOWN%: 10%

• SG: T2G → 3^rd
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 7^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 4^th
• BoB Gained → 10^th
• GIRs Gained → 15^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 14^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 2^nd // 4^th // 30^th // 41^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // MC // MC // 17^th // 25^th // 25^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 16^th

Notes: Burned many (including myself) at the US Open as chalk… which we should have seen coming… Finau still has some of the best stats of anyone in the field, ranking Top 5 in SG: T2G, SG: BS, SG: APP, SG: OTT, and Bogey Avoidance; with his course history lacking, missing his last 3 cuts at the Travelers, coupled with his brutal MC last week, he could see lower ownership than usual (at least relative)… I’ll go back as he’s a great bounce back candidate and course fit with 2 T5s on 2 comp courses recently

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Patrick Cantlay → pOWN%: 20%

Davis Riley → pOWN%: 16%

Brian Harman → pOWN%: 15%

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 15%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (42 players):

Plays

1) Brendan Steele ($7,700) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 8^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 5^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 7^th
• BoB Gained → 28^th
• GIRs Gained → 1^st
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 18^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 22^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 9^th // 51^st // 4^th // 48^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // 6^th // 21^st // MC // 14^th // 17^th // 25^th // 5^th // 13^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 5

Course Fit Rank: 43^rd   

Notes: Getting a LOT of buzz as the best “value” guy so if ownership gets out of control this play isn’t as appealing; nevertheless, his course history is probably best in the field with 5 T20s or better in 10 starts at TPC River Highlands and he comes in with a 10^th/9^th/4^th in 3 of his last 4 and a Top 10 ranking in SG: T2G, SG: BS, SG: APP, SG: OTT, GIRs, and Opportunities Gained… too cheap for the upside/history/form

2) Cameron Davis ($7,500) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 42^nd
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 18^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 104^th
• BoB Gained → 48^th
• GIRs Gained → 119^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 97^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 19^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 53^rd // 7^th // 48^th // MC // 3^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 14^th

Notes: The last 3 months have been up and down for Davis, but he has finished T3/T7 at 2 comp courses in the last 2 months and has gained on APP in 7 straight measured events… the putter has been consistently strong, gaining in 12 of his last 13 measured events; strong course comp rating as Davis is someone like Finau who has the driving distance but excels the most on shorter courses and can rack up birdies in bunches (and eagles)

3) Adam Long ($7,000) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 33^rd
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 17^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 33^rd
• BoB Gained → 123^rd
• GIRs Gained → 5^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 20^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 26^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // MC // 35^th // MC // 15^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 24^th // 21^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 60^th

Notes: Yup, we’re back on Adam Long for the n^th time… he hasn’t shown HUGE upside over his last 7 events but he does have 5/7 made cuts with 3 T21 finishes or better and 2 T35 finishes which is perfectly fine at only a 7k price tag; has gained OTT in 8 of his last 10 events, gained or been flat on SG: APP (gained 0.0) in his last 8 events, and despite missing the cut last year, does have a T24/T21 in 2 of his last 3 starts at the Travlers… upside is there if he can putt and avoid the big numbers

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Lanto Griffin ($7,100) → pOWN%: 2%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 76^th
• SG: Approach (125-175 yards emphasis) → 46^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 86^th
• BoB Gained → 29^th
• GIRs Gained → 32^nd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 → 9^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 21^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 51^st // 60^th // 51^st // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 70^th // 24^th // 38^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 99^th  

Notes: Some good news for Lanto this week in that SG: ARG shouldn’t matter nearly as much as recent events, which is by far his biggest weakness… the form is iffy but has made all 3 cuts at the Travelers and his stats are above average for only 7100: 46^th SG: APP, 9^th on Par 4s 400-450, 21^st Bogey Avoidance, and 32^nd in GIRs Gained… I worry somewhat about his upside, such as a T20/T10, but at 7100 we don’t need him to win but make the cut and make some birdies

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Marc Leishman → pOWN%: 15%

Brendon Todd → pOWN%: 13%

OTHERS I LIKE: K.H. Lee // C.T. Pan // Anirban Lahiri // Nick Hardy

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (89 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) John Huh ($6,800) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Form is coming around a bit with a T12/T25 in his last 2 starts and rates out well in the stat model: 28^th in the field SG: T2G, 22^nd SG: APP, 22^nd on Par 4s 400-450, 23^rd BoB, 7^th Fairways Gained, and 9^th in Opportunities Gained… shorter courses suit him much better especially with an emphasis on hitting fairways

2) Adam Schenk ($6,600) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Strong showing at the US Open and is now $500 cheaper… which is interesting; cheap price and top 50 in the field in SG: APP, Bogey Avoidance, BoB, GIRs Gained, Fairways Gained, and Opportunities Gained… course history isn’t great with 4 MCs in 4 tries, but we can’t have it all in the mid 6k range and he has shown some cut making upside this season

3) Tyler Duncan ($6,400) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: No high finishes here but Duncan is 4/4 in cuts and is now only 6400… 44^th in the field SG: T2G, 39^th SG: APP, 41^st GIRs, 16^th Fairways Gained… will he putt himself to a MC? More likely than not, yes, but on a shorter track that requires you to be in the fairway and pelt greens, Duncan is a great fit at only 6400 (ranks 21^st in my course comp rankings)

Cash Game Options

1) Rory McIlroy

2) Sungjae Im

3) Tony Finau

4) Keegan Bradley

5) Mito Pereira

6) Brendon Todd

7) Brendan Steele

8) Charles Howell III

9) Kevin Streelman

10) Adam Long

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 15% Course History, & 5% of my course comp model ranking

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Sam Burns
6. Brendan Steele
7. Joaquin Niemann
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Tony Finau
10. Scottie Scheffler
11. Jordan Spieth
12. Tommy Fleetwood
13. Mito Pereira
14. Sungjae Im
15. Davis Riley
16. Aaron Wise
17. Brendon Todd
18. Brian Harman
19. Seamus Power
20. Harold Varner III