2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic - DraftKings Preview, Picks, & Player Ranks » DFS Karma
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Course: Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, MI

Fast Facts

  • Par 72, 7300-7400 yards
  • Average Cut: -3
  • Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
  • Corollary Courses:
    • East Lake
    • Sedgefield CC
    • Silverado Resort & Spa
    • TPC Deere Run
    • TPC River Highlands
    • TPC Twin Cities
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Russell Henley, Webb Simpson, Kevin Streelman, Mark Hubbard, Tony Finau, Scott Stallings, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson, Cameron Davis, Ryan Moore

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 75-150 yards)
  • BoB Gained
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: Par 5s
  • Opportunities Gained
  • SG: Putting (Bent/0-10 feet emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (14 players):

Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) pOWN%: 25%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 20th
  • SG: Approach 45th
  • BoB Gained 3rd
  • SG: OTT 30th
  • SG: Par 5s 2nd
  • Opportunities Gained 21st
  • SG: Putting 20th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 8th // 4th // 13th // 14th // 3rd     

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 21st

Notes: Cantlay should come in as one of the highest owned in the field but it checks out given his course fit on these types of tracks as well as his recent form; his last 5 finishes: 8th // 4th // 13th // 14th // 3rd to go along with a tremendous bent grass putter (this week is a mix of bent/poa) and ranks 2nd in the field on Par 5s, 3rd BoB, 4th GIRs Gained, and a historically strong putter from 0-10 feet… class of the field and an elite play even at the pOWN%

2) Davis Riley ($8,600) pOWN%: 15%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 10th
  • SG: Approach → 28th
  • BoB Gained 55th
  • SG: OTT 16th
  • SG: Par 5s 98th
  • Opportunities Gained 16th
  • SG: Putting 101st

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 64th // 31st // 13th // 4th   

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 52nd

Notes: Killed me (and nearly 30% of most GPPs) last week but I’ll go back at hopefully lower ownership than week’s past… 10th in the field T2G, 16th SG: OTT, 16th Opportunities Gained, and 10th on Par 4s under 400 yards (4 of them here); he’s struggled with the putter the last 2 events but before the Travelers had been a consistently above-average putter from 0-10 feet to go along with a strong wedge prowess

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Cam Davis ($9,700) pOWN%: 16%

  • SG: T2G 7th
  • SG: Approach → 4th
  • BoB Gained 4th
  • SG: OTT 9th
  • SG: Par 5s 13th
  • Opportunities Gained 2nd
  • SG: Putting 45th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 16th // 6th // 8th // 56th // 53rd   

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 1st // MC // MC   

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 9th

Notes: Continuing his strong form, Davis finished T16 last week and has now made his last 6 cuts with a T8/T7/T16 in 3 of those 6; has gained on APP in 8 of his last 9 measured events, has been solid and consistent with the putter and it doesn’t hurt that he won here last year (clearly likes the layout); ranks #1 in my stat model and although he’ll be owned and is hardly a “low owned pivot,” I hope the high price tag keeps it somewhat in check

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Cameron Young pOWN%: 25+%

Max Homa pOWN%: 21%

Tony Finau pOWN%: 20%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (46 players):

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($8,300) pOWN%: 9%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 11th
  • SG: Approach → 31st
  • BoB Gained 21st
  • SG: OTT 38th
  • SG: Par 5s 35th
  • Opportunities Gained 41st
  • SG: Putting 73rd

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 13th // MC // 27th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 8th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 2nd

Notes: Strong course fit with a lot of success at East Lake/Sedgefield and while the form isn’t great (3 MCs in last 4), some of the results don’t tell the fully story as a late triple on Friday caused a MC at the Open; however, now at a course that prioritizes strong wedge play and close proximity putting, I think Webb is a value at 8300… we know Webb can get hot with the putter and should be able to excel on the shorter Par 4s on his preferred Donald Ross design track

2) Taylor Pendrith ($7,500) pOWN%: 10%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 8th
  • SG: Approach → 75th
  • BoB Gained 26th
  • SG: OTT 4th
  • SG: Par 5s 9th
  • Opportunities Gained 124th
  • SG: Putting 85th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 11th // 13th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 52nd

Notes: Some of Pendrith’s stats are slightly skewed (both for better and worse) due to his injury, but it’s worth noting he’s top 10 in the field in both SG: T2G and SG: OTT, 9th on Par 5s, 26th BoB, and 10th in GIRs Gained; in his first start back after 3 months off, he finished T13 at the Barbasol and in his limited rounds, he’s shown a propensity for bent grass greens and as one of the longer hitters in the field, he should have a ton of short wedges

3) Greyson Sigg ($7,100) pOWN%: 5%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 19th
  • SG: Approach → 23rd
  • BoB Gained 78th
  • SG: OTT 34th
  • SG: Par 5s 45th
  • Opportunities Gained 39th
  • SG: Putting 49th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 7th // 26th // 27th // 16th // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 34th  

Notes: No glaring weaknesses in his game right now as he’s rattled off finishes of T16/T27/T7 while gaining strokes on APP in all 3 of those events and gaining strokes T2G/OTT in his last 5 events; Top 25 in the field T2G, APP, GIRs Gained and while the putter can be a hindrance on him, at only 7100 he gives us huge value if he finds a hot flat stick and this layout should be conducive to his strong ball-striking

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Trey Mullinax ($7,000) pOWN%: 4%

Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: T2G 42nd
  • SG: Approach → 44th
  • BoB Gained 6th
  • SG: OTT 13th
  • SG: Par 5s 46th
  • Opportunities Gained 8th
  • SG: Putting 79th

Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21st // 1st // MC // MC // 69th    

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 114th

Notes: Picked up his first win a few weeks ago and has continued his decent form (at least stats-wise) as he’s 21st in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, 13th SG: OTT, 6th BoB, 8th Opportunities Gained, and should have a decent advantage with his driving distance; the field is stronger than last week, but still weakish overall, so I think Mullinax has solid T20 or better upside at only 7000 and most likely <5% owned

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Chris Kirk pOWN%: 17%

Joohyung Kim pOWN%: 15%

Chris Gotterup pOWN%: 14%

OTHERS I LIKE: Mark Hubbard // Scott Stallings // Nick Hardy // Alex Smalley // Chris Gotterup

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (92 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Hayden Buckley ($6,900) pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Decent showing last week but the putter killed him multiple days (as it normally does); 18th in the field T2G, 32nd SG: APP, 7th SG: OTT, 12th Opps. Gained, and 23rd GIRs Gained… has made his last 5 cuts in a row, has gained OTT in 10 straight events, gained on APP in 5 straight, and if he can be even average with the putter has high made cut equity + scoring upside

2) Kelly Kraft ($6,700) pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Not sure I’ve ever played Kelly Kraft before but the stats have been quietly solid the last several events: gained on APP in 4 of his last 5, gained T2G in 3 of his last 5, and while it’s volatile, he’s shown the ability to have spike putting weeks (where he finished T24/T11; at 2 comp courses); Kraft ranks 16th in the field on Par 4s <400 yards as well as 15th in SG: Putting (Bent/0-10 feet)

3) Peter Malnati ($6,600) pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: A very good putter, Malnati comes in with decent form making his last 3 cuts that includes a T30 at TPC Deere Run and T11 at TPC Twin Cities (both comp courses)… his OTT game is very below average; however, that is due mostly to distance as he hits a lot of fairways and his lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him here… 18th in the field BoB, 30th on Par 4s <400 yards, and 38th in SG: Putting (bent/0-10 feet emphasis)

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Cam Davis

3) Webb Simpson

4) Russell Henley

5) Mark Hubbard

6) Joohyung Kim

7) Troy Merritt

8) Chris Gotterup

9) Greyson Sigg

10) Callum Tarren

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 10% of my course comp model ranking

  1. Cam Davis
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Will Zalatoris
  4. Scott Stallings
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Kevin Streelman
  7. Maverick McNealy
  8. Max Homa
  9. Keegan Bradley
  10. Brendan Steele
  11. Sahith Theegala
  12. Adam Svensson
  13. Davis Riley
  14. Adam Hadwin
  15. Mark Hubbard
  16. Cameron Young
  17. Denny McCarthy
  18. Webb Simpson
  19. Chris Kirk
  20. Cameron Tringale

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