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Course: The Country Club, Brookline, MA

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7200-7400 yards
• Average Cut: +5
• Field: 156 players with Top 60 and ties making the cut
• Very small greens (4500-5000 sq. ft. on avg. compared to TOUR avg. 6000-6500 sq. ft.)
• Corollary Courses:
  • Bethpage Black
  • Pebble Beach GL (US Open)
  • Riviera CC
  • TPC Harding Park
  • Winged Foot
• Top Course Fit Targets: Top Course Fit Targets: Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Par 4s 450+

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (19 players):

Plays

1) Jon Rahm ($10,800) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 19^th
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 36^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 8^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 7^th
• GIRs Gained → 1^st
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 48^th // 1^st // 27^th // 9^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 1^st // 23^rd // 3^rd // MC // MC // 23^rd

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd   

Notes: Despite having not missed a cut this calendar year combined with a win (yes, in a terrible field), a T2/T3, and 2 T10s, it seems like the sentiment has cooled on Rahm… last year’s US Open winner with no weaknesses in his game, has gained strokes T2G in 13 straight events and until the Memorial, he had gained strokes OTT in EVERY SINGLE EVENT SINCE THE 2020 TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS… if he’s going to be an ownership discount to JT/Rory/others, he’s one of my favorite players of the week

2) Jordan Spieth ($9,500) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 13^th
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 43^rd
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 13^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 22^nd
• GIRs Gained → 49^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 18^th // 7^th // 34^th // 2^nd // 1^st  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 19^th // MC // 65^th // MC // 35^th // 37^th // 1^st // 17^th // MC // 21^st

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 20^th

Notes: A win, T2, and T7 in 3 of his last 5 starts and the ball striking is looking the best it has in a few years… he continues to miss the short putts, which is not only concerning but uncharacteristic; however, if Spieth continues to gain strokes OTT, which he has the last 6 measured events, he has mega-upside assuming he can putt even average (or to his historical baseline)…

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 23^rd
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 34^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 18^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 92^nd
• GIRs Gained → 27^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 45^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // MC // 2^nd // 39^th // 26^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 15^th // 43^rd // 21^st // 45^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 4^th

Notes: I keep playing Cantlay in majors and he keeps burning me… so we’ll go right back! The form is strong outside of the PGA, as he has a T2/T3 in 2 of his last 3 starts, has gained strokes OTT in 12 of his last 13 measured events, and has consistently gained strokes putting (gained in 8 of last 9 events); if Cantlay can avoid the big numbers he has tremendous upside and should be low(ish) owned given his poor form in majors the last few years and being next to very chalk Zalatoris/Lowry

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 21%

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 19%

Shane Lowry → pOWN%: 17%

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 17%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (45 players):

Plays

1) Daniel Berger ($8,400) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 21^st
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 16^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 37^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 84^th
• GIRs Gained → 98^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 54^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 23^rd // MC // 21^st // 50^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 7^th // 34^th // 49^th // 6^th // MC // 37^th // 28^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 51^st  

Notes: Plauged by a bad putter in 3 of the last 4, Berger’s ball striking has remained strong and consistent, gaining strokes OTT in 7 straight events, gaining on APP in 5 of his last 7, and has strong US Open experience, making the last 4 cuts with a T7/T6 in that span… his upside depends on the putter but I like him as a semi-pivot off what should be an insanely popular Fitz/Burns/Finau around him

2) Tony Finau ($8,200) → pOWN%: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 3^rd
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 14^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 6^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 2^nd
• GIRs Gained → 14^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // 4^th // 30^th // 41^st // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // 8^th // MC // 5^th // MC // 14^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: I’ll eat the chalk with Finau as he’s playing elite golf right now and comes to a perfect course set up at Brookline; on his best putting face, Finau has gained strokes with the flat stick in 4 straight events, and 6 of the last 7, and has gained strokes T2G in 7 straight events with 2 T2s and a T4 in that span… outside of one horrendous tournament on APP (Wells Fargo), he’s been ultra-consistent and has massive T5 or better potential if he can keep up his improved ARG/putting display

3) Sungjae Im ($7,600) → pOWN%: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 14^th
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 28^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 14^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 1^st
• GIRs Gained → 7^th
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 6^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 15^th // 14^th // 21^st // 8^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 35^th // 22^nd // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 55^th

Notes: Could be the highest owned player of the week but it’s justified given how mispriced he is… no finish worse than T21 in his last 5 starts and has gained 7+ strokes T2G in each of his last 4 events; consistently one of the better short games on TOUR, Sungjae sets up great for this setup as the 6^th best on long Par 4s 450+ (8 of them this week); I’ll eat the chalk here in cash/single entry as he’s only 7600 and the 30^th most expensive player on DK, yet in my Top 15 in T5/T20 odds

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Brian Harman ($7,000) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 32^nd
• SG: Approach (175+ yard emphasis) → 63^rd
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 38^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 98^th
• GIRs Gained → 93^rd
• SG: Par 4s 450+ → 29^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 18^th // MC // 34^th // 9^th // 35^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 19^th // 38^th // 36^th // 2^nd // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 94^th  

Notes: Harman doesn’t feel like he would fit a longer course setup whatsoever, but his US Open history is strong with 4 straight made cuts that includes a T19 and T2… he’s top 30 in the field on Par 4s 450+, 17^th in Fairways Gained, and 14^th in Scrambling, all key attributes for an USGA course design; Harman’s weakness on Par 5s should be mitigated here and he should get a boost from his Top 50 rank in the field on Approaches from 175-200/200+ yards out

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Sam Burns → pOWN%: 19%

Mito Pereira → pOWN%: 16%

Davis Riley → pOWN%: 15%

OTHERS I LIKE: Max Homa // Corey Conners // Keegan Bradley // Sebastian Munoz // Adam Scott // Webb Simpson // Justin Rose

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (92 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Ryan Fox ($6,700) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Similar to last week, it gets pretty baron down here, but Fox continues to dominate on the DP World Tour as his last 6 starts over there are: 1^st // T15 // T9 // T8 // T2 // T2 and while that doesn’t equal success on the PGA/better fields, his SG numbers have been consistently positive, and he does have good make the cut equity + upside at only 6700…

2) Kurt Kitayama ($6,500) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: A definite punt with not nearly as strong of stats, or consistency, as Fox but Kitayama strongest attribute, OTT, should benefit him here as he’s gained strokes OTT in 5 straight events while struggling with the ARG/putting… 44^th in the field T2G, 23^rd SG: OTT, 28^th on Par 4s 450+, 31^st in Bogey Avoidance, and if he can just avoid the blow up holes/3 putts he has strong made cut equity

Cash Game Options

1) Rory McIlroy

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Will Zalatoris

4) Shane Lowry

5) Tony Finau

6) Max Homa

7) Corey Conners

8) Sungjae Im

9) Davis Riley

10) Justin Rose

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% US Open History, & 15% of my course comp model ranking

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Jon Rahm
5. Tony Finau
6. Matt Fitzpatrick
7. Max Homa
8. Billy Horschel
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Patrick Cantlay
11. Scottie Scheffler
12. Jordan Spieth
13. Joaquin Niemann
14. Mito Pereira
15. Shane Lowry
16. Cameron Young
17. Aaron Wise
18. Sam Burns
19. Hideki Matsuyama
20. Sungjae Im