Caleb's StableDuel Strategy - 3/21 Parx » DFS Karma
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With a brief respite from March Madness today, StableDuel is offering three contests at Parx Racing! You can get in for as little as $7, all the way up to a $100 double up contest! For today’s article, we will be focusing on a few horses to include in the $30 format, although they are usable in the other contest as well. Fields are on the smaller side today at Parx, and a few key favorites have scratched out, making other contenders in that race hold extra value. Let’s jump in and take a look at a few of today’s players.

If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Parx today. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!

Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.

If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.

Looking for other ideas to fill out your stable? Be sure to check out the discord, where we provide core plays and cheat sheets to help you win!

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High Price Favorites

Taino $8,000 – Race 2

Taino projects to have everything his own way on the lead in today’s second race. He should be able to secure the lead relatively easily and enjoy an uncontested lead up front. Draw a line through his last race over the slop, as he’s proven he doesn’t care for an off track and should get a fast track today. The rail has been extremely strong at Parx routes the last two weeks, so we are looking for that trend to continue as we exploit inside speed horses. I expect Taino to make the lead early and never look back.

 

Mid Price Plays

Centre Court Champ $5,000 – Race 9

Getting Centre Court Champ for only $5,000 feels like an oversight on the part of the morning line maker, but we will certainly take advantage of that. I honestly expect this horse to compete for favoritism with #2 It Can when all is said and done. Centre Court Champ raced like a horse who needed a race last out when making her first start in over seven months. She showed she still has plenty of early speed before understandably tiring late. She should be more fit today, and she also adds Lasix for the first time. Note that Robert Mosco is 25% with horses second off the layoff over the last three years with a +$0.67 ROI per dollar bet.

Marianna Queen $5,000 – Race 6

I’m going ahead and listing a second mid price play here since I really struggled to find any cheap value horses I felt strongly about. This race projects to have a hot and contested pace, with multiple need-the-lead type runners likely to set blistering fractions early. Marianna Queen is easily the best closer in this field, and she owns speed figures that are already good enough to make her a win threat if she simply runs her average race. With some pace help in front of her and a jockey upgrade to Andy Hernandez, she offers great value with significant upside.

 

Value Plays

Dahtestes Hero $750 – Race 2

I’ll be honest, this pick is extremely risky. #7 Two Princes would have beaten this field by as many as he wanted, however, he has scratched out of this race as a heavy favorite. Some people may default to a horse like #8 Grazely or #4 Judicial Restraint, but both of those runners seem extremely exposed and dependent on a pace meltdown in order to make an impact. There are only two runners in this field who are likely to be near the lead, Dahtestes Hero and City Guy. Between those two, I slightly prefer the former. Dahtestes Hero gets the inside draw, which has been very productive lately at Parx routes. Additionally, he is only three years old with only seven races to his name. While the recent form does appear poor, he is really the only runner in this field that has any right to improve as he continues to age and mature and get valuable racing experience. Danny Velazquez and Jomar Torres are in the midst of a cold streak, but these are generally extremely strong connections, and it seems unlikely for a barn with this much talent to stay cold for this long. I’m taking a stab that Dahtestes Hero can make the lead early and hold on for a minor award in a field full of terrible horses.

 

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