Caleb's StableDuel Strategy - Gulfstream Park 2/5 » DFS Karma
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We are back to Gulfstream Park today for another big StableDuel contest! There is a $15,000 guarantee for Holy Bull today, and we’ll look to build on last week’s success with the huge Pegasus day score. Today’s card is challenging, without many heavy favorites to lean on but lots of interesting mid-priced plays.

If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Gulfstream this Saturday. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!

Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.

If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.

Looking for other ideas to fill out your stable? Be sure to check out the discord, where we provide core plays and cheat sheets to help you win!

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High Price Favorites

Savage Sailor $8,000 – Race 2

Savage Sailor enters this race off of an impressive win last out and now tackles winners for the first time. I’d be a little more hesitant to back him if not for the barn change. Larry Rivelli has been nothing short of dominant when it comes to training horses on the synthetic surface. He was the leading trainer at Arlington Park for years, and he is an unbelievable 16 for 29 (55%) first off the claim. It’s encouraging to see Tyler G keep the mount, and with any expected improvement this horse will be a handful against this field.

In Dreams $8,500 – Race 5

My Prankster may go off as the favorite in this six-horse affair, but I strongly prefer the second choice In Dreams. He destroyed a very good allowance field at Oaklawn last out by six lengths, and that form was flattered when the second and third place horses both returned to win their next race. He projects to be controlling speed loose on the lead in a race that doesn’t have much other pace signed on.

 

Mid Price Plays

Coinage $5,000 – Race 7

Keeping with the theme of races without much pace, Coinage is another who looks as if he’ll have everything his own way on the lead in this race. He is getting significant class relief today after facing much better horses in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last out, and he should get a relatively easy lead against this bunch. Luis Saez is one of the best riders in the game at stealing turf races on the front end, so look for Coinage to play catch me if you can with the rest of this field.

Greatitude $6,000 – Race 8

Despite only just breaking her maiden, Greatitude still appears to be squarely the horse to beat in this race. The Todd Pletcher barn has been ridiculously hot so far this meet, winning nearly everything that isn’t tied down. It’s encouraging to see Pletcher have the confidence to enter this filly into a Grade 3 stakes despite being relatively inexperienced. She owns the fastest speed figure in the field with the exception of Radio Day’s maiden victory. In retrospect, that figure appears to be quite suspect as it was earned over a sloppy track and every horse, including Radio Days, has regressed significantly out of that event. Greatitude is the play and excellent value for $6,000.

 

Value Plays

Mo Ready $750 – Race 12

In what is easily the worst morning line of the day, we look to take advantage of such mistakes in StableDuel contests. For some reason, Mo Ready is a laughable 12-1 on the morning line in the last race at Gulfstream today. He did disappoint in his last race, however, nearly any of his other recent races are easily good enough to beat this field today. The wide post is a big concern, but if anyone can work out a trip from there, it’s Irad Ortiz. It appears the pace should be swift, so look for Mo Ready to take up a stalking position midpack and try to save ground before launching a move late. Don’t be surprised if this horse is sent off at one-third of his morning line odds and is the most popular horse on StableDuel.

 

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