Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/8/20 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/8/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. Doncic B. Ingram C. Capela ATL/HOU
J. Harden E. Gordon/D. House N. Jokic CHI/NO
J.Murray D.Gafford/T.Young N. Vucevic DEN/DAL
L. Ball M. Porter Jr.  A. Len WAS/ORL
J. Redick P. Millsap B. Lopez MIA/IND

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Solid 9 game slate tonight with a ton of injury news already out. First off, the most important news is that Russell Westbrook won’t suit up tonight. This makes Harden, Capela, Eric Gordon/Danuel House locks. Especially on FanDuel, where Capela is 7.6k, and Harden is 11.2k. On DraftKings Harden is a little tougher to fit in… but he is still my number one stud of the day over Luka. I’ll be doing anything I can to play them both on FanDuel but it’s sort of out of the picture on DraftKings.
  • If we are starting roster construction on both sites, I would start with James Harden. Harden is in an amazing spot tonight vs the Hawks who play fast and with no defense. On top of that, No Russ as mentioned before… meaning Harden will get the majority of the usage. He’s way easier to fit on FD but he’s still a priority for me on DK at 12.8k. To pair with Harden, I’ll look for another HOU player, for value I’m loving Eric Gordon. House is an alternative GPP option.
  • The second player I’ll be building around is Lonzo Ball. Ball is on an insane run right now with 4 straight games with 20+ points. With no Jrue Holiday, Ball will get a ton of run and has earned the trust of Coach Gentry. He’s harder to fit on DraftKings but is very affordable on FanDuel. Another cheap PG option I like on DraftKings is D.J. Augustin, who has been picking up the slack with Magic missing Jon Isaac.
  • Again I like Houston as my top team stack. In addition to Harden and Gordon, I like Capela and House as complimenting options. Capela is almost locked for me on both sites, @ below 8k.
  • On both sites, I’ll be looking to PF for value. With Carter Jr. out for the Bulls and Barton out for the Nuggets, I’m looking at Michael Porter Jr. and Thaddeus Young. Their price on both sites is very good for value and they should start tonight hopefully. I anticipate Young starting because he was spotted with the starters at shoot around, and MPJ has been getting high praise from Malone as of late so hoping he gets the nod as well.
  • With all the studs I listed above, here is where we need to find value. Guys like Redick, Hart and Moore are in good spots for the Pelicans with Jrue out. Guys like Gafford, Young, and Markennen are good with Carter Jr. out. In addition, GPP fliers like DiVincenzo and Connaughton are worth looks in a big spread game with no G. Hill.
  • Now, for tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Harden, Ball, one of HOU players [Gordon,House,Capela]) 
      • Luka Doncic
      • Brandon Ingram
      • Jamal Murray
      • Thaddeus Young
      • Daniel Gafford
      • Nikola Jokic
      • Nikola Vucevic
      • Michael Porter Jr.
      • Paul Millsap
      • Josh Hart
      • Kevin Huerter
      • Trae Young
      • Derrick Favors
      • John Collins
    • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
    • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
    • HOU/ATL could be the nuts game stack today. I love the Hawks side for tournaments with Trae/Huerter/Collins/Len and the Rockets side with Harden/Gordon/House/Capela. 
    • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
      • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

 

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