Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/18)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/18)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

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Guards

Cash

We’ve hit the point in the season where teams are struggling with Covid, backups are getting heavy minutes, and slates are changing by the minutes. Get in our free Discord as we monitor all of the news. We’re starting with the Golden State Warriors at guard tonight. Gary Payton II and Damion Lee are the top options. Golden State will be without Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins tonight. Payton’s looked great on a per-minute basis throughout the season, and he’ll make an elite option in bigger minutes tonight. Lee is one of the likeliest options to take over the offense, and he’s also expected to be locked into big minutes. He comes with elite scoring potential in this game. Cole Anthony is questionable for this game, but he’ll make an elite option if he’s starting. He’ll be the focal point of the Orlando Magic offense, and he’ll see as many shots as he wants tonight. David Duke and Moses Moody are two more salary relief options that can be considered at guard on this slate.

GPP

The first player that immediately sticks out in GPPs is Jrue Holiday. He could go overlooked because of the slate, but he’s scored 55 and 56.25 DK points in his last 2 games. Holiday can be considered in cash games if you can comfortably fit him, although he’ll lose a bit of value if Khris Middleton is starting. Ricky Rubio could see bigger minutes as the Cleveland Cavaliers will be without a few players, specifically Isaac Okoro, for this game. Rubio’s found plenty of success with Cleveland this season, and he’s a bit underpriced at the moment. Derrick Rose is expected to start at point guard if he’s healthy tonight. If that’s the case, he gets an elite matchup against the Boston Celtics, who’ve struggled against scoring point guards throughout the season. He’s getting expensive, but there’s still plenty of GPP value in him for tonight. Chris Chiozza, Patty Mills, Darius Garland, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Donovan Mitchell are all solid guard options in tournaments tonight.

Forward

Cash

There are two very clear options at forward tonight with several secondary options. Juan Toscano-Anderson is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s consistently found success when given the time. He recently posted 25 and 34.75 DK points in 32 and 26 minutes. JTA is near the minimum price tonight, and he’s arguably the best play on the entire slate. The other option is Chuma Okeke. He’s locked into big minutes for the Orlando Magic, who continue to deal with rotation issues. Okeke gets an elite matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, and he posted 53.5 DK points in 39 minutes last night. He could see similar minutes tonight, although I wouldn’t expect that great of a game. Still, he’s priced under $4k tonight. Khris Middleton will benefit from the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and others tonight. If he’s healthy, he should see big minutes and a massive role in the Milwaukee Bucks’ offense. Middleton’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues. Other forwards to consider in cash games tonight include Nemanja Bjelica, Kessler Edwards, Jordan Nwora, and Franz Wagner.

GPP

Jayson Tatum continues to be a top GPP play as he consistently goes overlooked on slates. He’s scored 49+ DK points in 7 of his last 8 games, flashing 60+ DK point upside. Tatum will take on a massive role against the New York Knicks with Dennis Schroder out, and he’s an elite option on this slate. Cedi Osman is likely to start in place of Isaac Okoro for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he’s a high upside option. He’s extremely reliant on scoring, specifically the three-point shot, but we’ve seen Osman post some massive scores when his shot is falling. He gets a plus matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who will be without several players in their rotation. Kevin Love, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Terance Mann, and Paul George are all great options here as well.

Center

Cash

Once again, we have two clear options at center tonight. Robin Lopez is one of the only healthy bigs for the Orlando Magic tonight. He played 33 minutes last night, scoring 32.25 DK points. Lopez is still near the minimum price, and he gets a solid matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. He’s an elite option on this slate. On the other side, Blake Griffin is an outstanding play. Nic Claxton isn’t expected to play tonight, solidifying Griffin will get 30+ minutes in this game. He’s scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 2 games, and his price tag is still a bit too cheap. Lopez and Griffin are both great options on this slate.

GPP

There are a few solid tournament options at center on this slate. With Evan Mobley out, Jarrett Allen will be locked into big minutes for the Cleveland Cavaliers. He gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are down several players in this game. They don’t have anyone that will slow Allen down, and he comes with elite upside. Robert Williams is coming off of a bad game for the Boston Celtics, but he should be locked into major minutes without Al Horford in the rotation. Williams always comes with elite upside when given the playing time, and he’ll see 30+ minutes tonight. Kevon Looney is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight. He’s flashed some upside in recent games, yet his price tag doesn’t represent that. Rudy Gobert is another player to consider here.

 

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