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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Saturday 03/28/2020

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 17 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float, while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up!

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Trae Young 72.6

 SG: James Harden 82.6

 SF: Lebron James 88.4

 PF: Anthony Davis 81.6

 C: Nikola Vucevic 62.9

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Ish Smith 12.58x and Rajon Rondo 12.46x

 SG: Jordan McRae 13.37x and Gary Payton II 13.34x

 SF: Eric Gordon 17.18x and Troy Brown 12.40x

 PF: Isiah Hartenstein 16.36x and Skal Labissiere 16.43x

 C: Jahlil Okafor 15.92x and Boban Marjanovic 15.97x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Trae Young (72.6 fantasy points), Ish Smith (56.6 fantasy points)

SG: James Harden (82.6 fantasy points), Jordan McRae (54.8 fantasy points)

SF: Lebron James (88.4 fantasy points), Eric Gordon (68.7 fantasy points)

PF: Kristaps Porzingis  (75.6 fantasy points), Skal Labissiere (58.9 fantasy points)

C: Jahlil Okafor (57.6 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 615.8 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 30.60 (Jordan Poole), 1Q: 38.92, Median: 47.75, Mean: 48.29, 3Q: 54.40, Max: 72.60

  1. Trae Young72.60
  2. Luka Doncic70.90
  3. Russell Westbrook69.2
  4. Eric Bledsoe: 57.2
  5. Ish Smith56.6

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.380 (George Hill), 1Q: 8.512, Median: 10.050, Mean: 10.007, 3Q: 11.090, Max: 14.950 (Trae Young)

  • There are two Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Chris Paul (9.11) and Markelle Fultz (8.15). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Trae Young has the highest SD of all point guards tonight with 14.950. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
  • Tonight’s slate has a range of 4 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Ky Bowman (11.27), Rajon Rondo (10.98), Seth Curry (10.73), or Brandon Knight (10.27).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 30% (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 41.75%, Median: 49%, Mean: 46.54%, 3Q: 52.25%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)

6x%: Min: 12% (Russell Westbrook), 1Q: 23.75%, Median: 29%, Mean: 28.04%, 3Q: 35.25%, Max: 38% (Ish Smith)

  • There are 2 players with a 5x% of 55%. (Mike Conley and Ish Smith). These 2 are then the top value point guards on the slate. Ish Smith also has the highest 6x% 7x% 8x% 9x% and 10x% of the 2 guys, while also having the 5th highest ceiling for a PG. He will be the center piece of a majority of my lineups tonight, and be in at least 3 of my lineups.
  • Russell Westbrook has the lowest 6x% of PGs and has a very low 5x% too (39%) There are just too many good PGs on this slate to play Russ.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
Mike Conley460024.355.741.709.760.550.370.210.10
Ish Smith450023.873.256.6010.100.550.380.230.11
Lonzo Ball630032.619.854.2011.400.540.320.160.06
Markelle Fultz510026.210.751.208.150.530.290.120.04
Shabazz Napier450023.454.552.3011.330.530.380.240.13
Jeff Teague440022.820.253.5011.030.530.370.230.13
Chris Paul710036.029.455.009.110.520.240.070.01
D.J. Augustin400020.413.247.109.260.520.350.210.11

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.80 (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 41.75, Median: 47.30, Mean: 49.30, 3Q: 54.40, Max: 82.60 (James Harden)

  1. James Harden (82.6)
  2. Khris Middleton (70)
  3. Bradley Beal (69.2)
  4. Jrue Holiday (65.3)
  5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (60)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.930 (Langston Galloway), 1Q: 8.365, Median: 9.650, Mean: 9.528, 3Q: 10.070, Max: 13.930 (James Harden)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 32% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 42.75%, Median: 51%, Mean: 47.92%, 3Q: 53.25%, Max: 55% (Terrence Ross)

6x%: Min: 14% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 23.75%, Median: 29.%, Mean: 28.33%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 40% (Jordan McRae)

  • We have 6 guys to pay up for tonight.
  • The safest pay up player is Khris Middleton. Lowest SD and highest 5x%, and is tied for second highest 6x%. He also has the second highest ceiling which is a plus as well.
  • Bradley Beal is the riskiest play on the board. He has the lowest 6x% to pay up for and the lowest 5x% but he does have the highest SD so he has a large range of outcomes. He has the third highest ceiling for a SG on the slate. He just isn’t worth playing tonight for me.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
James Harden1120055.9927.182.6013.930.500.210.05
Bradley Beal990046.3120.969.2012.010.400.140.03
Jrue Holiday780039.5521.665.3011.020.520.260.09
Donovan Mitchell710036.115.259.209.670.520.250.08
Khris Middleton700035.2821.270.009.990.510.250.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander690034.5210.260.0010.120.500.250.09

 

  • If you are looking to pay down I would look at either Bruce Brown  or JJ Redick as top options. JJ is a little more safer with hte lower SD, but Brown you are getting the higher ceiling.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
Terrence Ross450023.746.249.507.900.560.340.160.06
Donte DiVincenzo430022.49-141.908.500.550.350.190.08
Josh Hart450023.495.641.608.990.540.350.190.08
Bruce Brown450023.57151.8010.290.540.370.220.11
JJ Redick410021.37339.809.290.540.360.220.11
Jordan Clarkson440022.72.744.009.360.530.350.190.09

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 37.30 (Markieff Morris), 1Q: 43.85, Median: 46.60, Mean: 52.87, 3Q: 62.00, Max: 88.4

  1. Lebron James (88.4)
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (81.8)
  3. Eric Gordon (68.7)
  4. Brandon Ingram (66.6)
  5. Andrew Wiggins (65.5)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.99 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.74, Median: 9.79, Mean: 9.72, 3Q: 10.39, Max: 13.15 (Jonathan Isaac)

  • The highest SD for a Small Forward is Jonathan Isaac with 13.15. He has an average of 32.92 so he has a 65% chance to score within 19.77 and 46.07
  • The lowest SD for a Shooting Guard is Danilo Gallinari with 6.990. He has an average of 29.48 so he has a 65% chance to score within 22.49 and 36.47.
  • Kenrich Williams (10.18) is the only player that have a higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
  • Lebron James (9.55)Bojan Bogdanovic (9.11)Luke Kennard (8.36) and Danilo Gallinari (6.99) are the 4 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 38% (Lebron James), 1Q: 47%, Median: 53%, Mean: 49.84%, 3Q: 54%, Max: 55% (Dorian Finney-Smith)

6x%: Min: 7% (Lebron James), 1Q: 24%, Median: 30%, Mean: 29.16%, 3Q: 36%, Max: 40% (Eric Gordon)

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Giannis Antetokounmpo1140057.2532.5081.8011.000.510.160.02
LeBron James1100052.1234.4088.409.550.380.070.00
Brandon Ingram760038.8115.3066.6010.330.530.260.08
Andrew Wiggins760036.3514.1065.5010.930.440.200.06
  • These guys are the top 7 guys to hit value today sub $5000
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Dorian Finney-Smith400021.012.0045.408.160.550.360.20
Tim Hardaway450023.692.0048.3010.460.550.380.23
Troy Brown430022.597.2053.309.730.540.370.22
Joe Ingles450023.467.2041.909.470.540.350.20
Eric Gordon400021.067.4068.7011.120.540.400.27
Danuel House410021.454.4047.2010.060.540.380.24
De’Andre Hunter420021.780.4046.309.810.530.360.22

 

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.10 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 38.80, Median: 47.30, Mean: 49.16, 3Q: 55.40, Max: 81.40

  1. Anthony Davis (81.4)
  2. Kristaps Porzingis (75.6)
  3. John Collins (67.2)
  4. Skal Labissiere (58.9)
  5. Isaiah Hartenstein (57.5)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.77 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 8.27, Median: 9.45, Mean: 9.96, 3Q: 10.70, Max: 14.99 (Isaiah Hartenstein)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Khem Birch), 1Q: 41%, Median: 49%, Mean: 49.16%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 54% (Davis Bertans)

6x%: Min: 15% (Anthony Davis), 1Q: 25%, Median: 29%, Mean: 27.56%, 3Q: 31%, Max: 38% (Christian Wood)

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Anthony Davis1090051.9223.8081.4012.930.420.150.03
John Collins870041.2218.1067.2010.700.420.150.03
Kristaps Porzingis790039.9212.1075.6014.520.510.300.14
Zion Williamson660033.4926.3053.106.940.530.190.03
Aaron Gordon620031.874.4057.0010.930.530.310.15
  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
  • Zion Williamson will continue to be my top play at PF and be in 3-4 of my lineups everytime he plays. His extremely low SD just makes him the safest option every night. His floor is 4x value. 47% of the time he will get you between 4x and 5x. The rest of the time he is getting you 5x+. With a ceiling value of 8x.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Davis Bertans510026.2410.3047.308.090.540.300.12
Aaron Gordon620031.874.4057.0010.930.530.310.15
Blake Griffin510026.1310.3043.107.860.530.280.11
Maxi Kleber410021.083.8041.708.270.530.340.18
Zion Williamson660033.4926.3053.106.940.530.190.03
Nerlens Noel420021.610.2037.809.250.530.350.20
Kyle Kuzma400020.544.0043.409.060.520.350.21
Eric Paschall460023.444.6051.6010.550.520.350.20
Rui Hachimura500025.315.4048.309.350.510.310.15
Christian Wood490024.97-1.0055.4014.300.510.380.26

 

  • These are the only 4 players with higher 5x% than Zion.
  • Christian Wood shows up very low on the 5x% chart but can get you have ceiling you need to take down the contest. He has the highest 6x and 7x% for PFs tonight. He will be right next to Zion in most of my lineups tonight.

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 40.70, Median: 47.30, Mean: 48.18, 3Q: 56.60, Max: 62.90

  1. Nikola Vucevic (62.9)
  2. Clint Capela (61.2)
  3. Steven Adams (60.4)
  4. Rudy Gobert (60)
  5. JaVale McGee (57.40)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 8.1 (Mo Bamba), 1Q: 9.415, Median: 9.89, Mean: 10.213, 3Q: 10.970, Max: 12.84 (Boban Marjanovic)

  • Nikola Vucevic is the only center with a SD under 10 and a price tag under $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
  • Jahlil Okafor Boban Marjanovic and Dewayne Dedmon are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 33% (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 44.5%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.48%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Willie Cauley-Stein)

6x%: Min: 11% (Nikola Vucevic), 1Q: 27.5%, Median: 32%, Mean: 30.39%, 3Q: 35.5%, Max: 38% (Ian Mahinmi)

  • I will not be wasting my salary today on Nikola VucevicHis ceiling is barely higher than the rest of the centers and his 5x%/6x% is so low he just isn’t worth it.
  • If I am paying up I am stopping at Clint Capela.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %
Willie Cauley-Stein410021.543.1038.008.940.550.37
Ian Mahinmi4000215.5044.909.900.540.38
P.J. Tucker410021.451.2041.209.460.540.37
Dwight Powell420021.726.3045.009.370.530.36
Dwight Howard410021.222.9041.009.800.530.36
Clint Capela760038.758.9061.2012.740.520.30
Thomas Bryant500025.573.6050.2011.120.520.35
Derrick Favors520026.474.3052.7011.050.520.33
JaVale McGee390019.871.8057.409.550.520.36

 

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