What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 20 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. I just spent way too much of my day watching some guy do pushups. We really need sports back.
How it works
The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:
- Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
- Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
- Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
- Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
- Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
- Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!
Find official rules HERE
Where is the Edge?
At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.
Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:
PG: Ben Simmons 84.4
SG: Zach Lavine 73.7
SF: Lebron James 88.4
PF: Anthony Davis 81.4
C: Andre Drummond 81.6
Next let’s take a look at each top value play:
PG: Shaq Harrison 14.51x and Shake Milton 14.19x
SG: Jordan McRae 13.37x and Furkan Korkmaz 13.77x
SF: OG Anunoby 14.02x and Kevin Porter 13.45x
PF: Skal Labissiere 16.36x and Ersan Illysova 12.09x
C: Javale McGee 14.35x and Moritz Wagner 14.1x
I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.
Best Possible Lineup
Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.
PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Patrick Beverly (56.7 fantasy points)
SG: Zach Lavine (73.7 fantasy points), Khris Middleton (70 fantasy points)
SF: Lebron James (88.4 fantasy points), OG Anunoby (65.9 fantasy points)
PF: Jabari Parker (61.3 fantasy points), Skal Labissiere (58.9 fantasy points)
C: Tristan Thompson (66.3 fantasy points)
If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 625.6 fantasy points!
Point Guards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 32.80 (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 44.95, Median: 50.95, Mean: 51.44, 3Q: 56.62, Max: 84.4
- Ben Simmons: 84.4
- Trae Young: 72.60
- De’Aaron Fox: 65.3
- Kyle Lowry: 596
- Eric Bledsoe: 57.2
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 7.380 (George Hill), 1Q: 9.365, Median: 10.185, Mean: 10.375, 3Q: 11.105, Max: 14.950 (Trae Young)
- There are three Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Kyle Lowry (9.91), Chris Paul (9.11) and Collin Sexton (8.21). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
- Trae Young has the highest SD of all point guards tonight with 14.950. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
- Tonight’s slate has a range of 4 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.3), Shaq Harrison (12.56), Rajon Rondo (10.98) or Brandon Knight (10.27).
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.
5x%: Min: 30% (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 45.5%, Median: 50.5%, Mean: 47.83%, 3Q: 52.25%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)
6x%: Min: 16% (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 23.75%, Median: 28%, Mean: 29.04%, 3Q: 36%, Max: 39% (Coby White)
- The studs to pay up for:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Trae Young | 10100 | 46.97 | 11 | 72.6 | 14.95 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| Ben Simmons | 9100 | 42.95 | 9.2 | 84.4 | 12.92 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| Kyle Lowry | 7800 | 39.33 | 17.9 | 59.6 | 9.91 | 0.51 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| De’Aaron Fox | 7400 | 37.24 | 6.2 | 65.3 | 11.38 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| Chris Paul | 7300 | 36.02 | 9.4 | 55 | 9.11 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
- These are the best value 5x%:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Ish Smith | 4500 | 23.87 | 3.2 | 56.6 | 10.1 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| Coby White | 4200 | 22.36 | 6.2 | 47.2 | 10.65 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| Kris Dunn | 4300 | 22.39 | 5.2 | 43.3 | 9.45 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| Shabazz Napier | 4500 | 23.45 | 4.5 | 52.3 | 11.33 | 0.53 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| Tomas Satoransky | 4800 | 24.78 | 5.7 | 50.1 | 10.05 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| Jeff Teague | 4400 | 22.82 | 0.2 | 53.5 | 11.03 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| Reggie Jackson | 4500 | 23.08 | 6.9 | 45.5 | 10.94 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.12 |
- Ish Smith and Coby White are the two best value options for PG tonight.
Shooting Guards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 27.80 (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 42.60, Median: 49.60, Mean: 50.13, 3Q: 56.45, Max: 73.70
- Zach Lavine 73.7
- Khris Middleton 70
- Bradley Beal 69.2
- Alec Burks 62.4
- Lou Williams 60.2
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 6.930 (Langston Galloway), 1Q: 9.165, Median: 10.020, Mean: 9.856, 3Q: 10.495, Max: 13.100 (Jordan McRae)
- There are 3 players over $5000 to have an SD under 10 (Khris Middleton (9.99), Kevin Huerter (9.74) and Dennis Schroder (9.61)
- There are three players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Gary Payton (12.14), Terence Davis (10.51) and DeAndre’ Bembry (10.02)
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.
5x%: Min: 32% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 42.50%, Median: 49%, Mean: 46.48%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 56% (Josh Richardson)
6x%: Min: 13% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 24.5%, Median: 29%, Mean: 27.93%, 3Q: 31.50%, Max: 40% (Jordan McRae)
- We have 4 guys to pay up for tonight.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Bradley Beal | 10000 | 46.31 | 20.9 | 69.2 | 12.01 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| Zach LaVine | 8000 | 40 | 12.6 | 73.7 | 11.87 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| Fred VanVleet | 7400 | 36.22 | 8.2 | 54.5 | 10.48 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| Khris Middleton | 7000 | 35.28 | 21.2 | 70 | 9.99 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 7000 | 34.52 | 10.2 | 60 | 10.12 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.08 |
- Buddy Hield and Lou Williams are great values today. Rarely you get guys above $6000 in the top of the value at a position so it’s a good spot to take advantage of.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Josh Richardson | 4800 | 25.53 | 5.4 | 42.8 | 9.74 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 4300 | 22.49 | -1 | 41.9 | 8.5 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| Bruce Brown | 4500 | 23.57 | 1 | 51.8 | 10.29 | 0.54 | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| Buddy Hield | 6100 | 31.43 | 4.4 | 57.2 | 10.27 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 4800 | 24.83 | 6.4 | 52.6 | 10.27 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Lou Williams | 6000 | 30.6 | 11.7 | 60.2 | 10.38 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.14 |
Small Forward
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 32.60 (Chandler Hutchison), 1Q: 40.60, Median: 46.30, Mean: 51.28, 3Q: 60.50, Max: 88.40
- Lebron James 88.4
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 81.8
- OG Anunoby 65.9
- Pascal Siakam 62.9
- Paul George 62.5
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 6.990 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.380, Median: 9.320, Mean: 9.512, 3Q: 9.810, Max: 13.420 (OG Anunoby)
- There are no players that have a higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
- Pascal Siakam (9.80), Lebron James (9.55), Luke Kennard (8.36) and Danilo Gallinari (6.99) are the 4 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 30% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 45%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 56% (Troy Brown)
6x%: Min: 7% (Lebron James), 1Q: 21%, Median: 30%, Mean: 27.67%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Troy Brown)
- These guys are the top 4 guys to pay up for today
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 11600 | 57.25 | 32.5 | 81.8 | 11 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| LeBron James | 11000 | 52.12 | 34.4 | 88.4 | 9.55 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Siakam | 8700 | 41.05 | 19.8 | 62.9 | 9.8 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| Paul George | 7600 | 36.36 | 8.7 | 62.5 | 13.05 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.10 |
- The top value plays
- Troy Brown is the top option to pay down for, leading the way in 5x and 6x%, but PG Anunoby sneaks in with the ceiling plays with the third highest ceiling and the highest 7x%.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Troy Brown | 4200 | 22.59 | 7.2 | 53.3 | 9.73 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| Harrison Barnes | 4700 | 24.62 | 6.2 | 40.6 | 8.95 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Tobias Harris | 6700 | 34.61 | 11.4 | 57.9 | 10.22 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| Glenn Robinson | 4200 | 21.97 | 3.4 | 42.9 | 9.32 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| Cedi Osman | 4000 | 20.7 | 1.2 | 39 | 8.26 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| Kent Bazemore | 3800 | 19.67 | 2 | 46.7 | 8.38 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| OG Anunoby | 4700 | 24.57 | 0.5 | 65.9 | 13.42 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| De’Andre Hunter | 4200 | 21.78 | 0.4 | 46.3 | 9.81 | 0.53 | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| Luke Kennard | 5200 | 26.54 | 12.3 | 42.7 | 8.36 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.12 |
Power Forwards
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 33.40 (Harry Giles), 1Q: 42.30, Median: 48.70, Mean: 50.84, 3Q: 58.90, Max: 81.40
- Anthony Davis 81.4
- Kawhi Leonard 68.2
- John Collins 67.2
- Jabari Parker 61.3
- Lauri Markkanen 60.4
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 7.86 (Blake Griffin), 1Q: 9.14, Median: 9.35, Mean: 10.04, 3Q: 40.70, Max: 14.30 (Christian Wood)
- There are two players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Skal Labissiere (10.53) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10.16)
- Kawhi Leonard (9.33), Serge Ibaka (9.31) and Al Horford (9.14) are all above $6000 with a SD under 10.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 32% (Luke Kornet), 1Q: 44%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.36%, 3Q: 51%, Max: 54% (Davis Bertans)
6x%: Min: 14% (Kawhi Leonard), 1Q: 24%, Median: 28%, Mean: 27.88%, 3Q: 33%, Max: 38% (Christian Wood)
- These are the “Studs” for the PF.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Anthony Davis | 10900 | 51.92 | 23.8 | 81.4 | 12.93 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 9600 | 47.63 | 31.4 | 68.2 | 9.33 | 0.48 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| John Collins | 8700 | 41.22 | 18.1 | 67.2 | 10.7 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
- Kawhi Leonard will always be a lock for me whenever he plays. He’s way too consistent for a guy at $9700.
- Top Value Plays:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % | 8x % |
| Davis Bertans | 5100 | 26.24 | 10.3 | 47.3 | 8.09 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Thaddeus Young | 4400 | 22.74 | 5.7 | 48.7 | 9.52 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Al Horford | 6000 | 30.64 | 11.3 | 51 | 9.14 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Nerlens Noel | 4200 | 21.61 | 0.2 | 37.8 | 9.25 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 5100 | 26.01 | 7.5 | 55.8 | 10.19 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| Kevin Love | 6800 | 34.4 | 8.7 | 59.6 | 11.15 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Rui Hachimura | 5000 | 25.31 | 5.4 | 48.3 | 9.35 | 0.51 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| Christian Wood | 4900 | 24.97 | -1 | 55.4 | 14.3 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
- Christian Wood shows up very low on the 5x% chart but can get you have ceiling you need to take down the contest. He has the highest 6x and 7x% for PFs tonight. He will be right next to Zion in most of my lineups tonight.
Centers
Ceiling
Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.
Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 44.30, Median: 46.40, Mean: 51.45, 3Q: 60.40, Max: 81.60
- Andre Drummond 81.6
- Joel Embiid 78.3
- Tristan Thompson 66.3
- Montrezl Harrell 62.1
- Clint Capela 60.4
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.
Min: 7.84 (Ivica Zubac), 1Q: 9.40, Median: 10.30, Mean: 10.49, 3Q: 11.12, Max: 14.18 (Joel Embiid)
- Wendell Carter Jr (9.01)is the only center with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
- Chris Boucher (11.49) and Dewayne Dedmon (10.73) are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.
5x% and 6%
These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them
5x%: Min: 33% (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 44%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.52%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Steven Adams)
6x%: Min: 19% (Andre Drummond), 1Q: 27%, Median: 30%, Mean: 29.52%, 3Q: 34%, Max: 38% (Ian Mahinmi)
- Top Centers to pay up for:
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Andre Drummond | 9800 | 46.98 | 13.7 | 81.6 | 13.58 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| Joel Embiid | 9600 | 45.49 | 5 | 78.3 | 14.18 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| Clint Capela | 7700 | 38.75 | 8.9 | 61.2 | 12.74 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
- Top Values at Center:
- Clint Capela falls right under Harrell, making him a great value too.
| Name | Salary | AVG | Floor | Ceiling | StdDev | 5x % | 6x % | 7x % |
| Steven Adams | 5700 | 29.75 | 7.9 | 60.4 | 10.89 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Ivica Zubac | 4000 | 20.84 | 5.3 | 41.1 | 7.84 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Ian Mahinmi | 4000 | 21 | 5.5 | 44.9 | 9.9 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Marc Gasol | 4700 | 24.29 | 7.2 | 44.3 | 9.4 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Wendell Carter | 5400 | 27.48 | 8.4 | 46 | 9.01 | 0.52 | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| Thomas Bryant | 5000 | 25.57 | 3.6 | 50.2 | 11.12 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| Montrezl Harrell | 6600 | 33.23 | 14.2 | 62.1 | 11.11 | 0.51 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
