Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems! Below I will discuss my NBA favorite plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets currently rank 13th and third in the NBA in pace this season. San Antonio also ranks 13th in the league in offensive rating, while Houston ranks 16th in defensive rating. The Spurs are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 234.5 points tonight, but they still possess an implied team total of 114 points on this slate.
DeMar DeRozan has been playing well recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 21.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (38.2 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game. He has scored 38+ DK points in 7 of his last 8 games. He has also flashed 50+ DK point upside over that span. DeRozan will also see a slightly larger role in the offense, as LaMarcus Aldridge has already been ruled out tonight. His price tag doesn’t represent it, but DeRozan is a cheap option, who also comes with tremendous upside, specifically in this matchup.
Rudy Gay will also benefit from the injury to Aldridge. Through 21 games, Gay is averaging 17.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on a per-36 minute basis. He’s also averaging 1.0 DK points per minute on the season. Gay is currently expected to see 30+ minutes in this game tonight. He could draw the start, although that may not help his fantasy potential. Gay is too cheap for a player that comes with 30+ DK point potential in one of the best matchups on the slate.
Jakob Poeltl is the final player that will benefit greatly from Aldridge sitting out tonight. Poeltl is averaging 6.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks (21.8 DK points) in only 22.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. On the season, he’s averaging 1.01 DK points per minute in 2019. Poeltl is expected to play minutes in the high-20s tonight. He should find plenty of success against Houston, and his price tag doesn’t match what will be his new role in the offense.
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Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks rank 18th in the NBA in pace, while the New Orleans Pelicans rank fifth in the same category. Dallas also leads the league in offensive rating, while New Orleans ranks 26th in defensive rating. The Mavericks are -4 point favorites in a game set at 232.5 points, giving them one of the highest implied team totals on this slate at 118.3 points.
Luka Doncic continues to produce at an elite level. He’s averaging 32.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 1.8 steals (61.9 DK points) in 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Doncic has scored 70+ DK points in 5 of his last 9 games. He’s still a bit too cheap for his combination of consistency and upside. Doncic also scored 61 DK points against New Orleans in their only matchup this season, and he could find similar success in this game tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has been starting for the Mavericks. He has played 29+ minutes in each of his last 4 games. In those games, he’s averaging 18.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.3 steals (29.4 DK points) per game. Hardaway is expected to continue to see big minutes, but he is far from a consistent option. He relies heavily on scoring, and gets a great matchup against New Orleans in what should be one of the higher scoring games on this slate.
Kristaps Porzingis has struggled in each of his last two games, which has caused his price tag to drop. Still, he’s averaging 14.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.8 blocks, and 1.6 steals (35.9 DK points) in 30.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He also recently scored 51.75 DK points against the Houston Rockets. Porzingis is another elite option for Dallas tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New Orleans Pelicans
This game has already been outlined above. The New Orleans Pelicans rank 14th in the NBA in offensive rating through 20 games. The Dallas Mavericks rank 15th in the league in defensive rating through 19 games. The Pelicans are +4 point underdogs in a game set at 232.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 114.3 points.
Lonzo Ball will be one of the higher owned players on this slate, but it’s impossible to avoid him in a Pelicans stack. He returned from injury in his last game, scoring 14 points with 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1 block (31.5 DK points) in 33 minutes. Ball is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, but his price tag doesn’t represent that. He’s one of the best options in all leagues on this slate.
Jrue Holiday isn’t overly consistent, but he comes with tremendous upside. On 3 games ago, Holiday scored 60.5 DK points against the Los Angeles Lakers. He has been at his best at home, where he’s averaging 1.28 DK points per minute, as opposed to 1.02 DK points per minute on the road. Holiday’s price tag continues to drop, and there aren’t many players around his price tag that boast his upside.
Brandon Ingram has been an elite option this season. He’s averaging 25.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.2 blocks (43.7 DK points) in 37.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 39+ DK points in each of his last 10 games, including a pair of games with 50+ DK points. Ingram plays a huge part in the New Orleans offense, and he’s still far too cheap for his upside.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Kendrick Nunn
Kendrick Nunn has been struggling a bit recently. He’s averaging 13.5 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists (22.6 DK points) in 26.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He recently scored 31.5 DK points in 31 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets. Nunn will benefit from Goran Dragic being ruled out tonight, as well.
Nunn gets a matchup against the Toronto Raptors. They currently rank 14th in the NBA in pace, while also ranking third in defensive rating. Nunn is expected to play 30+ minutes with Dragic injured tonight. There is enough value on this slate to avoid Nunn is cash games, but he can be used in GPPs tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Kelly Olynyk
Kelly Olynyk only played six minutes in his last game, failing to score any fantasy points. He averaged 27.0 minutes per game in his 3 games prior to that, though. In that time, Olynyk averaged 16.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 steal (30.2 DK points) per game. He scored 21+ DK points in each of those games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside.
Olynyk gets a matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who have been outlined above. Olynyk is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight. His price tag has dropped drastically from his last game. He isn’t safe enough to be used in cash games tonight, but Olynyk makes a solid tournament option.
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