Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 RBC Heritage DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

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Course: Harbour Town GL

Fast Facts

• Par 71 approx. 7000 yards
• Fast Bermuda Greens approx. 3700 sq. ft. (MUCH SMALLER than TOUR average)
• Driving Accuracy is key; only about 55% of fairways are hit
• Field: 154 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average cut around +2
• Average winning score around -12
• Corollary Courses (Pete Dye tracks): Colonial CC, Copperhead, TPC Potomac, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, Waialae CC
• Course Fit Targets: Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Charles Howell III, Patrick Reed, Kevin Kisner, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Russell Knox

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 5-4; DK 3-6

GPP Results – See table below

 

Cash: It’s weird to say I ran kind of good in cash for an overall down week (in for $800, got $500 back) but the fact that I cashed in all double ups with a 3/6 lineup shows a few things: 1) gotta get lucky and have some things fall your way and 2) you are never out of it even after a brutal MC by a few guys on Friday (thanks Kuchar). I think this may be the 2^nd time ever that I’ve cashed in double ups with a 3/6 but when you have Berger at sub 10% and then Im/Ancer finishing high, I barely scraped in and phew, that was hilarious. Palmer looked lost, as did Webb on Day 1, so they took themselves out of any high finish quickly but since they were very chalk in cash, I didn’t sweat it as much. Now Kuchar… he was inside the cut by 1 shot going into his last hole… and then proceeded to hit it in the water and double to trunk slam by 1 shot… wow. It’s always funny that guys like Kuchar, Charles Howell, etc are seen as these “safe plays” but are just as likely to succumb to variance as anyone else. One thing I will say, and people who saw me in Discord wouldn’t believe it, but you MUST have a short memory and don’t write guys off just because they “screwed” you this past week and in the same mindset, don’t chase guys either.

GPP: Similar to cash games, I didn’t think I had much of a chance for any min cashes whatsoever as my main lineup (most $) had both Jason Day and Jimmy Walker in which I thought Day could go out early and low on Friday… didn’t… and then Jimmy Walker collapsed on his back 9 to give me a 4/6 lineup. I wasn’t out of it for a while since I had JT/Im/Poulter/Conners but all 4 of them faded on Sunday to take that sweat out but one of my 3 maxes DID come through with Berger/Reed/Harman/Woodland all coming through for me. I mentioned it on the pod but it’s so important to prioritize contest selection as I cashed 1 of my 3 lineups in every single 3 max and in large field GPPs it missed by several points. You’re never out of it and if you have low owned guys (Berger sub 10%), you are absolutely never out of it if they can play well and finish up there on the weekend. Onto the Heritage!

Course and Weather Notes: Another wildly loaded field with I’m pretty sure 8 or 9 of the Top 10 teeing it up (Cantlay and Tiger ☹ not playing) and I’m excited to watch one of my Top 5 favorite courses on TOUR. Similar to Colonial last week, this course places a premium on Driving Accuracy and although that narrative was kind of shaken last week with bombers just by passing all these “targets,” I think this week will limit the bombers a little more. Harbour Town, being a Pete Dye design, cuts off a lot of power and features many forced layups where I think course history does have an advantage in knowing how to play the course. A lot of times, players may have an easier shot from the rough compared to the other guy who’s in the fairway based on the angles. The greens here are TINY (3700 sq. ft. which is almost as small as the smallest on TOUR at Pebble), so scrambling will be essential since even the best guys in the world will undoubtedly miss many greens. Lastly, could definitely be more a narrative than anything, but I’m weighting long term Pete Dye course performance this week since we don’t have a ton of form, and like I mentioned this is a strategic course, I think knowing how to maneuver will be an advantage.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
• BoB Gained
• Fairways Gained
• Scrambling
• SG: Total (Pete Dye Course Comps)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: BS/2^nd SG: APP/2^nd BoB/138^th Fways Gained/20^th Scrambling/35^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: 10^th

History: 75^th (2016)/11^th (2015)

Notes: Going right back to JT after he faltered on Sunday; he gained 7 strokes on APP for the week, 7.5 T2G, and LOST SG: OTT (-1.6) and only 1.3 putting… I think this course sets up well for him as someone who’s a great wedge/target golf player

2) Jon Rahm ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 10^th SG: BS/23^rd SG: APP/8^th BoB/35^th Fways Gained/49^th Scrambling/26^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: MC

History: None

Notes: I think he showed extreme rust and after he couldn’t make ANYTHING just stopped caring, as he lost over 4 strokes putting in 2 days… still gained on APP, gained 3.7 T2G, and I really hope people hope off because he’s my favorite play in this range

Fades

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,300) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: BS/6^th SG: APP/4^th BoB/59^th Fways Gained/21^st Scrambling/3^rd SG: Pete Dye

Form: 32^nd

History: None

Notes: Never feels good to fade Rory and there is always conviction to play him but man his weekend was rough… this is more of a can’t play everyone but Rory on Sunday lost almost 3 strokes on APP and lost strokes with his irons 2 of 4 days… he should putt better on Bermuda but I prefer JT/Rahm

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 7^th SG: BS/5^th SG: APP/3^rd BoB/83^rd Fways Gained/104^th Scrambling/19^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: Hopefully practicing putting

History: MC

Notes: This is purely based on him not playing last week and me having no idea what he’s been doing for the 3 months… always elite T2G but will he putt? I will say if I see Hideki trending towards 10% ownership or even lower, I will probably hop on

Favorite Pivot

1) Justin Rose ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 61^st SG: BS/44^th SG: APP/7^th BoB/73^rd Fways Gained/94^th Scrambling/7^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: 3^rd

History: None

Notes: Pivot last week and pivot this week… he may get some inflated ownership since he finished 3^rd but I’m hoping since he’s priced in between Webb/Hideki and then Im is near him too… MAYBE he could be the forgotten man; his stats will look skewed since long term he was using those horrible Honma irons but he looked awesome at Colonial and I will have GPP exposure for sure

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Patrick Reed ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 37^th SG: BS/37^th SG: APP/1^st BoB/125^th Fways Gained/5^th Scrambling/11^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: 7^th

History: MC (2015)/48^th (2014)/71^st (2013)

Notes: Unfortunately getting a lot of buzz and he should be… probably the best scrambler in the game and shows up in big fields time after time; I think Reed is actually underpriced and one of my favorite plays in the field; he’s never going to pop in a model but scrambles well and get a HOT, HOT putter; I like him in all formats

2) Kevin Kisner ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 69^th SG: BS (nice)/75^th SG: APP/116^th BoB/7^th Fways Gained/10^th Scrambling/21^st SG: Pete Dye

Form: 29^th

History: 41^st/7^th/11^th/69^th (nice)/2^nd/38^th/MC

Notes: Favorite value of the week as I may be chasing a narrative but Kisner said he loves where his game is and he has the ideal game here as he hits a ton of fairways and is a strong scrambler; normally a strong putter, Kisner lost strokes putting 3 of 4 rounds at the Charles Schwab, which I would say is atypical; like him in all formats as well

3) Adam Hadwin ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 38^th SG: BS/26^th SG: APP/78^th BoB/20^th Fways Gained/52^nd Scrambling/33^rd SG: Pete Dye

Form: 43^rd

History: 48^th/22^nd/30^th/MC

Notes: Gained 2.6 shots on APP at Colonial, which even though they weren’t recent, makes 3 events in a row combined with 4 straight tournaments of gaining strokes T2G… I don’t think he’ll be that popular and similar to Kisner, isn’t a long hitter but is elite in the key approach of 150-200 yards this week
Fades

1) Byeong Hun An ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 21^st SG: BS/31^st SG: APP/73^rd BoB/97^th Fways Gained/23^rd Scrambling/38^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: 60^th

History: MC/7^th

Notes: Never really like to play Benny An because as everyone knows he’s a horrific putter but he always ends up high owned and a “value” which I think happens again this week… I would much rather take guys around him so easy pivot from potential chalk for me; plus, he was flat on T2G last week along with losing strokes on APP…

2) Branden Grace ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: BS/41^st SG: APP/117^th BoB/144^th Fways Gained/43^rd Scrambling/47^th SG: Pete Dye

Form: 19^th

History: 61^st/11^th/1^st/7^th

Notes: Great course history here and people seeing his name in one of the final groups this past week is going to lead to elevated ownership and I will gladly fade… Grace is so up and down that at over 10% projected ownership for someone who misses a ton of fairways, that’s an automatic fade for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Russell Henley ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Key Stats: 26^th SG: BS/4^th SG: APP/121^st BoB/53^rd Fways Gained/61^st Scrambling/32^nd SG: Pete Dye

Form: None

History: MC/26^th/23^rd/MC/MC/6^th

Notes: Not even sure I can call this a pivot as much as a dart throw but I’ll take the risk… been a long layoff but Henley had gained 1.2/3.7/10.6 on APP in his 3 tournaments pre-covid and Bermuda is by far his best putting surface… not a great putter but if he makes the cut here, you’re way ahead of the field

OTHERS I LIKE: Gary Woodland/Matt Kuchar/Ian Poulter/Kevin Streelman in ALL formats
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Dustin Johnson/Corey Conners/Harris English/Rory Sabbatini/Bud Cauley

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Ryan Moore ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I kind of feel like it’s been forever since Moore has been good, but he’s a short hitter who hits a lot of fairways (10^th in this field) and ranks 5^th in the field in SG: Pete Dye courses… 43^rd SG: BS

2) Russell Knox ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Has looked like trash his last several tournaments but does rank 10^th in SG: APP, 30^th in SG: BS, 36^th in Scrambling and 15^th in SG: Pete Dye courses

3) Sebastian Munoz ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Looked awful last week but ranks 39^th SG: BS, 38^th SG: APP, 16trh in BoB Gained, and is returning to by far his best putting surface in Bermuda

4) Cameron Tringale ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Obviously long-term stats… but Tringale ranks 25^th SG: BS, 13^th SG: APP, 8^th in Scrambling, and 54^th on SG: Pete Dye at only 6400… worth a dart throw if making 10+ lineups I think

Cash Game Options

1) Sungjae Im

2) Justin Rose

3) Webb Simpson

4) Patrick Reed

5) Gary Woodland

6) Matt Kuchar

7) Kevin Kisner

8) Joel Dahmen

9) Adam Hadwin

10) Kevin Streelman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 50% Key Stats, 5% Recent Form, 15% Course History, 20% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Bryson Dechambeau
2. Webb Simpson
3. Justin Thomas
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Daniel Berger
7. Sungjae Im
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Jon Rahm
10. Joel Dahmen
11. Gary Woodland
12. Patrick Reed
13. Tyrrell Hatton
14. Hideki Matsuyama
15. Matthew Fitzpatrick
16. Tony Finau
17. Billy Horschel
18. Jason Kokrak
19. Abraham Ancer
20. Viktor Hovland

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Webb Simpson

Jordan Spieth

Collin Morikawa

Bryson Dechambeau

Patrick Reed

OAD Pivots

Jon Rahm

Tony Finau

Kevin Kisner

Adam Hadwin

Rickie Fowler

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