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Courses: Torrey Pines (South Course) and Torrey Pines (North Course), San Diego, CA

Fast Facts

• 3 Rounds at South Course: 7765-yard Par 72 redesigned by Rees Jones in 2019 and 1 round (either THU/FRI) at the North Course: 7258-yard Par 72 re-designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2016
• South Course has fast POA greens (SMALL, 5000 sq. ft. on avg) while North has Bent greens
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average cut -1 to -2
• Fairways imperative here with Accuracy at Torrey 52% compared to TOUR avg. 62%
• Can go LOW on North course (62/63/64 has been shot there in last 2 years) but both courses have thick/penalizing rough which could be tougher this year with upcoming US Open in June
• Corollary Courses: Bethpage Black, Club de Golf Chapultepec, Pebble Beach/ Riviera, Whistling Straits, past US Open courses (Oakmont, Congressional)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, Brandt Snedeker

Course and Weather Notes: As AC said on our podcast, (Listen HERE), this does truly feel like the “start” of the PGA season as we get an awesome field at one of the better venues of the entire year. In an effort to keep this shorter than version’s past, players will play the South Course either THU or FRI then both days on the weekend if they make the cut while playing the North Course on either THU or FRI. While the North Course is definitely “easier” it is not a cakewalk as the low scores are out there, but it still has similar thick rough to that of the South Course. It always sounds stupid to say “target the guys who hit it far and in the fairway,” but alas, that’s the ticket. I would weight driving distance here more than usual only because while everyone will struggle to get it close from the rough, it’s certainly easier to hit a 150-160 yard shot from there over a 200+ yard shot. There may be a slight weather/draw advantage as potential bad weather rolls in but with tee times being within 2 hours of each other on both THU/FRI, I think the main advantage are the earlier guys getting access to much softer greens compared to the later guys that may have to deal with dried out Poa (which is very tough). Bombers who excel at long approaches + strong Poa putting splits + avoid the big numbers = the winners!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 175+)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Distance)
• SG: T2G
• Birdie or Better %
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
• Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 41^st SG: APP/2^nd SG: OTT/14^th T2G/1^st BoB/25^th SG: P/27^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 3^rd/5^th

Course History: 3^rd/5^th

Notes: It’s pretty insane that Rory hasn’t won on TOUR since November 2019 seeing as he’s made every cut since the British Open in July 2019, had 5 Top 5s in 2020, yet hasn’t seemed to really be “threatening” due to his putter letting him down or inability to keep the pedal down after a strong R1/R2/R3; all of that said, he’s finished back to back Top 5 at Torrey, he has crushed previous US Open tracks, probably is the best driver of the ball on TOUR and we get him as the 2^nd most expensive… I’m in

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 13^th SG: APP/16^th SG: OTT/5^th T2G/90^th BoB/144^th SG: P/42^nd Bogey Avoidance

Form: 19^th/41^st/13^th/2^nd

Course History: 45^th/3^rd/12^th/33^rd/MC/MC/16^th

Notes: Rinse and repeat; elite ball striker, gained almost 7 strokes on APP at the Sony (finished T19) but lost almost 4 putting, at Tournament of Champions he somehow lost 9.7 strokes putting… although the putting seems to be a little bit worse than usual (amazing), his history here is solid with 5/7 cuts made and a T12/T16/T3 in that span; has more distance than you think and although a horrific putter, is decent around the greens with a wedge

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 18^th SG: APP/15^th SG: OTT/9^th T2G/3^rd BoB/58^th SG: P/49^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 4^th/31^st/8^th/38^th/24^th

Course History: 6^th/13^th/6^th/4^th/18^th/24^th

Notes: Hard to ignore his course history here, which is insane, but as we once again saw last week, his inability to close and being the 3^rd highest priced golfer, I just can’t do it… couple that with him pushing 20+% ownership, per usual, I will look elsewhere for guys with more winning upside

2) Matthew Wolff ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 11^th SG: APP/88^th SG: OTT/86^th T2G/36^th BoB/32^nd SG: P/120^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 40^th/MC

Course History: 21^st

Notes: I like Wolff a lot, and was thinking about him last week as someone I want to target at Torrey, but looking into it, his OTT game has been very suspect recently, as he’s lost strokes off the tee in 4 straight tournaments, has lost strokes around the green in 3 straight, and should be quite popular… he is a great Poa putter and can get hot, but I may continue to wait till I see more consistent form from him

 Favorite Pivot

1) Harris English ($9,800) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 22^nd SG: APP/17^th SG: OTT/19^th T2G/5^th BoB/5^th SG: P/20^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 32^nd/1^st/5^th/6^th

Course History: 71^st/MC/8^th/14^th/31^st/2^nd

Notes: English won’t get the respect that the others do in his price range, but English has been playing spectacular over the last year, is up to 16^th in the world, and I think he’ll be super low owned relative to others around him despite his stats and form; only 1 missed cut since the first event back from COVID last June and in that span has 9 Top 20s, a win, and a T4 at the US Open; English ranks #1 in my overall model, has 3 T14s or better at Torrey Pines, and makes for an excellent play in all formats this week

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Bubba Watson ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 27^th SG: APP/4^th SG: OTT/1^st T2G/40^th BoB/128^th SG: P/30^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 57^th

Course History: 6^th/23^rd/13^th/1^st

Notes: Not normally a Bubba backer but looking at his history we have ourselves an official “Bubba track” and while a poor putter plagued his results at the end of last year, he’s been striking it great as he’s riding an 8 made cut streak where he’s gained on APP in his last 6 measure events, gained in SG: OTT and SG: T2G in each of his last 9 measured rounds, and is on his best putting surface in Poa; great distance + great APP, just needs to find his putter and keep it in the fairway… love this play

2) Corey Conners ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 9^th SG: APP/5^th SG: OTT/6^th T2G/7^th BoB/80^th SG: P/35^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 17^th/10^th/10^th/24^th

Course History: 29^th

Notes: I’m always a sucker for Conners, as most are, since he rates out so well in every stat model but he’s in fantastic form to go along with not TOTALLY bleeding strokes on the greens each week, as he’s been known to do… 7 straight made cuts, T25 or better in his last 5 events in a row, and has gained T2G/OTT/APP/ARG in 6 of those 7 measured events; if he can stick these greens, the smaller/tougher set up should give him an advantage

3) Matt Jones ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 82^nd SG: APP/81^st SG: OTT/110^th T2G/27^th BoB/17^th SG: P/1^st Bogey Avoidance

Form: 21^st/11^th/44^th/63^rd

Course History: 73^rd/13^th/MC/31^st/43^rd/MC/51^st

Notes: Seems kind of random but he hits the ball sneaky far, is a great Wind/tougher weather player as he’s from Australia, and is in some decent form as he’s made 6 straight cuts, back to back T21/T11 finishes, and has gained on APP in 2 straight and T2G in 3 straight events; he’s shown in his last 2 starts he can get really hot (shot 63/64 on weekend at Sony) so I love the upside at very low ownership

Fades

1) Marc Leishman ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 19^th SG: APP/106^th SG: OTT/61^st T2G/125^th BoB/134^th SG: P/25^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 4^th/24^th/MC/13^th

Course History: 1^st/43^rd/8^th/20^th/MC/27^th/2^nd/MC/52^nd/9^th

Notes: Made me look foolish at the Sony when I said hard fade and he finished T4 along with gaining over 6 strokes on APP; however, long term he’s still 61^st T2G, outside the Top 125 in the field in Putting and BoB and although he won here last year, Poa is traditionally his worst putting surface; I think his ownership will creep up later in the week as people see his win last year + a solid finish 2 weeks ago

2) Ryan Palmer ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 40^th SG: APP/49^th SG: OTT/16^th T2G/4^th BoB/44^th SG: P/95^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 41^st/4^th

Course History: 21^st/13^th/2^nd

Notes: Yeah… I’m not playing a 20+% Ryan Palmer… if he burns me I’ll live with it but he feels overpriced; his stats are solid and he’s been playing some of the best golf of his career AND he has strong course history but at this ownership + his propensity to make big numbers + a lot of great options above/below, I thin this is an easy pass for me (for what it’s worth, I would rather play Day/Scott/Conners/Horschel all in a similar price range)

Favorite Pivot

1) Jason Day ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 107^th SG: APP/50^th SG: OTT/79^th T2G/77^th BoB/20^th SG: P/72^nd Bogey Avoidance

Form: 12^th/MC/7^th

Course History: 16^th/5^th/1^st/MC/MC/1^st/2^nd/9^th

Notes: Maybe his ownership gets higher as the week goes on, but I think due to his history of WD and just never being healthy will keep him low owned… I think Day is set for a good year and Torrey has been great to him with 2 wins and 4 more T10s or better in his last 8 starts here; given his long term talent, this seems much too cheap and per his recent form, he has a 12^th/7^th in 2 of his last 3 starts and can get a very, very hot putter

OTHERS I LIKE: Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, Gary Woodland, Talor Gooch, Carlos Ortiz, Charles Howell III, Joel Dahmen, Cameron Tringale, John HUH?!?!?!??!!????????!?!!!!!!!

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Wyndham Clark ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Had a poor weekend but hits it a ton off the tee, has played here twice, and ranks 8^th in the field in BoB, 19^th in Bogey Avoidance, and can get a hot putter when he’s on

2) Kyle Stanley ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: I never like playing Stanley but per ALWAYS, his stats are solid, ranking Top 40 in the field in T2G/BoB and ranking 9^th in the SG: APP blend for the week; history is mixed, but he’s played here a lot, with 4 MCs in the last 10 starts, 2 T25s, and a runner up

3) Justin Suh ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Still a new, young talent so a lot of risk but he was a beast on the Korn Ferry; limited rounds of data, but ranks 58^th in SG: OTT, 54^th in BoB, 24^th SG: Putting, and 41^st in Bogey Avoidance at only 6600 and little to no ownership at all

4) Jhonattan Vegas ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Could get a little buzz since he’s known as a bomber but still very risky albeit super cheap; ranks 41^st in the field T2G, 6^th in SG: OTT, 29^th in BoB, and like many I seem to roster weekly, it all depends on his putter; hasn’t played in a while, but last start finished T20 and per his course history, similar to Kyle Stanley, it’s mixed with 3 MCs in 10 starts with 2 T18s or better and a 3^rd

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Reed               

2) Harris English

3) Viktor Hovland

4) Hideki Matsuyama

5) Adam Scott

6) Gary Woodland

7) Corey Conners

8) Talor Gooch

9) Charles Howell III

10) Doug Ghim

11) Cameron Tringale

12) John Huh

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 15% Course History Rank

1. Harris English
2. Jon Rahm
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Tony Finau
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Ryan Palmer
7. Corey Conners
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Sungjae Im
11. Cameron Tringale
12. Cameron Smith
13. Patrick Reed
14. Charley Hoffman
15. Marc Leishman
16. John Huh?!?!?24830HA0ERDGIADRGUIBAIJKNDGIU!!!!!!!!!????????//!?!?!?!?!?
17. Carlos Ortiz
18. Billy Horschel
19. Viktor Hovland
20. Emiliano Grillo

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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