fbpx
Connect with us

Golf

Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 PGA Championship DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

Sign up for the BEST STATS DATABASE for DFS Golf at fantasynational.com/dfskarma

Course: Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course), Kiawah Island, SC

Fast Facts

  • Par 72; 7876 yards designed by Pete Dye
  • Paspalum greens
  • Larger greens (6000 sq. ft. on average)
  • Short rough with short Par 5s and longer Par 4s
  • Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut
  • Holes with Water Hazards: 6
  • Wind is course’s main defense with 10 holes along the coast
  • Corollary Courses: Quail Hollow, Bethpage Black, Whistling Straits, El Camaleon GC (hosts the OHL), Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open), PGA National
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise, Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Westwood, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar

Course and Weather Notes: Everyone and everyone’s mother will have an opinion on how the course will play, what the weather is like, who is in good form, and etc etc… mine is this course is a BEAST (obviously) and should play to a single digit under par score if winds are even semi-present, otherwise we could see a ton of birdies. I think that driving distance is a huge bonus and if making a tiebreaker I would use that, but also remember that for 90-95% of courses on TOUR having an edge in distance is an advantage as well so this is no different. In making lineups I would wait till as late on Wednesday as you can because there could certainly be a big advantage at least one of the first two days. I would target elite players OTT, strong long iron players, but also those who can avoid bogeys and scramble since no matter what the major is or scoring, being able to save pars is always paramount. I’m pumped up for our 2nd major of the year and it should be an awesome event with how tough this course is (especially the last 6 holes, wow) and the different styles some of the top ranked players will take to compete.

Onto the picks in which I tried to switch up the format a little bit so please let me know what you think!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: Ball Striking
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards)
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling
  • GIRs Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Jon Rahm ($10,500) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 9th
  • SG: OTT – 2nd
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 25th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 93rd
  • GIRs Gained – 3rd
  • Bogey Avoidance – 64th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 39th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 34th

Last 3 Starts – 34th // MC // 7th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 34th // MC // 7th // 5th // 5th // 9th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 87th

Notes: I keep writing up Rahm in my favorite 9K and above plays and I guess I’ll triple down for the PGA Championship because despite a down week last week with the irons (lost 2.3), he gained 4.1 OTT, gained 2.4 strokes T2G and even with a few blips recently he’s only missed 1 cut since June 2020, obviously has the distance for this course and is one of the best wind players in the field

2) Patrick Reed ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 61st
  • SG: OTT – 58th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 91st
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 19th
  • GIRs Gained – 111th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 14th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 6th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 6th

Last 3 Starts – 6th // MC // 8th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 6th // MC // 8th // 28th // 22nd // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 8th

Notes: I say the same things every time I write up Patrick Reed, he’s never going to pop in a stat model, but he has such an elite short game as shown by his SG: ARG/Scrambling rank above, he can get hot with the putter, and while maybe a “noisy” thing to note, Reed consistently excels in strong fields and on long/hard (that’s what she said) courses i.e. US Opens, the Masters, a win earlier this year at Torrey Pines, and per his stats, he’s gained strokes putting in every event but one since last year’s US Open and gained strokes OTT in his last 9 measured tournaments… love Reed this week and love the price/OWN%

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 24th
  • SG: OTT – 1st
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 66th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 41st
  • GIRs Gained – 35th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 2nd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 2nd

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 55th

Last 3 Starts – 55th // 9th // 46th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 55th // 9th // 46th // 42nd // 3rd // 1st

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 39th

Notes: I get the love for Bryson with how long this course is and he’s far and away the longest hitter/#1 ranked SG: OTT player week in and week out; however, I expect his ownership to increase as the week goes in, he’s lost strokes on APP in his last 2 tournaments and with a 46th place at the Masters despite no official data, I don’t think his irons were supreme their either… he is talented enough to win this event and dominate but at this price I would rather play Rahm/Spieth/Morikawa

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,600) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 45th
  • SG: OTT – 47th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 42nd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 30th
  • GIRs Gained – 14th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 48th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 5th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 14th

Last 3 Starts – 14th // 11th // 3rd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 14th // 11th // 3rd // 18th // MC // 39th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 83rd

Notes: Rinse and repeat here… I fade Xander at a major, he doesn’t miss a putt less than 50 feet all week, makes the cut on the number, finishes inside the Top 10 despite never contending, and I am pissed… well let’s do it again; his finishes have been consistent, he’s a very elite ball striker, and his price isn’t as inflated as usual but I’m going to fade 1) because I’m an idiot and want to be just once, 2) he always is one of the highest owned on the slate and 3) if he ends up not gaining 5+ strokes putting, his finishes take a huge hit with how much he relies on it so I’ll chance that he doesn’t gain a million (he will and we’ll do this all again for the US Open next month)

Favorite Pivot

1) Webb Simpson ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 32nd
  • SG: OTT – 56th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 35th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 17th
  • GIRs Gained – 28th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 47th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 9th

Last 3 Starts – 9th // 12th // 28th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 9th // 12th // 28th // MC // 6th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 14th

Notes: I’m not concerned about Webb’s last minute WD a few weeks ago because although I don’t KNOW, I just assume he didn’t want to play and decided at the last second to opt out; Webb doesn’t have the driving distance that is preferable but aside from a MC at the PLAYERS (which burned me but I won’t hold against him since everyone misses a cut there eventually), he’s made every cut but that one since July 2020 with 7 Top 10s in that span and gaining T2G, gaining on APP, and gaining in SG: P in 90% of those tournaments… guys with distance won’t have it easy so I’m confident Webb can compete despite being outdriven by most of the “top tier” studs

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Daniel Berger ($8,700) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 4th
  • SG: OTT – 13th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 3rd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 69th
  • GIRs Gained – 13th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 27th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 24th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 3rd

Last 3 Starts – 3rd // 13th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 3rd // 13th // MC // 9th // 35th // 1st

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 41st

Notes: Setting up to be chalk, I’m not fading it because of how well he sets up here; Berger has gained on APP in 5 straight measured tournaments, he’s gained OTT in his last 8 measured tournaments and is a great wind player with his low ball flight/low APEX… as long as he can chip around average (his biggest weakness), he is very live to win this event and at the very least show some T5/T10 upside

2) Abraham Ancer ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 5th
  • SG: OTT – 17th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 26th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 58th
  • GIRs Gained – 2nd
  • Bogey Avoidance – 1st
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 4th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 2nd

Last 3 Starts – 2nd // 5th // 18th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 2nd // 5th // 18th // 26th // 23rd // 18th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 32nd

Notes: More chalk that I’m eating but Ancer has been more consistent than anyone on TOUR it feels like over the last few months with 7 straight made cuts with no finish worse than 26th (the Masters) and gaining T2G in all 7 of the events and gaining on APP and OTT in 6 of those 7… he’s not a massive driver but he hits a ton of fairways, is a great par saver, and can get HOT with the long irons as we saw over the weekend recently at the Wells Fargo

3) Emiliano Grillo ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 20th
  • SG: OTT – 62nd
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 9th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 94th
  • GIRs Gained – 6th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 6th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 7th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 14th

Last 3 Starts – 14th // MC // 2nd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 14th // MC // 2nd // 6th // MC// 21st

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 52nd

Notes: Easily the riskiest of my plays but if we go by raw stat ranks and we leave out putting for a second, Grillo fits this course and is only 7000; he’s gained strokes on APP in 4 of his last 5 events, including over 7 at the RBC (finished T2) and over 7 at Wells Fargo (finished T14); what I like about him maybe the most is his history at similar courses with 3 Top 10s at the OHL (El Camaleon GC) and a T2/T3/T11 in 5 tries at the Puerto Rico Open (Coco Beach); if Grillo hits a plethora of greens as he’s been known to due, I love his upside and value at this price and probably very low ownership

Fades

1) Sam Burns ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 12th
  • SG: OTT – 38th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 7th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 48th
  • GIRs Gained – 24th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 60th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 27th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 2nd

Last 3 Starts – 2nd // 1st // 4th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 2nd // 1st // 4th // 39th // MC // MC

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 55th

Notes: I love Burns and like his game in the long term but I think with back to back superb finishes he could end up going over owned despite, yes a strong flurry of performance over his last 8 rounds, but prior to that he had missed 3 straight cuts then finished T39… I think he’ll end up being quite popular and I don’t think his upside or T20% is much different than those around him/will be MUCH less owned especially with Burns’ propensity to make some big numbers (doubles/triples)

2) Keegan Bradley ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 18th
  • SG: OTT – 29th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 16th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 6th
  • GIRs Gained – 9th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 12th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 17th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 18th

Last 3 Starts – 18th // 2nd // 4th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 18th // 2nd // 4th // 23rd // 30th // 29th

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 53rd

Notes: Keegan has played great, he finished T3 last time it was played here in 2012 and is probably one of the best pure ball strikers in this field… but I can’t play a chalky Keegan; his APP play and T2G game is insane, gaining strokes on APP in every measured event since LAST year’s PGA champ (August 2020) but his putter remains a consistent problem and keeps his ceiling lower than it should be… similar to Burns, there are similar guys around him that should be a third or a fourth of the OWN%

Favorite Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 5%

Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

  • SG: Ball Striking – 41st
  • SG: OTT – 28th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 32nd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 45th
  • GIRs Gained – 91st
  • Bogey Avoidance – 104th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 15th

Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 5th

Last 3 Starts – 5th // MC // 40th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 5th // MC // 40th // 6th // MC // 43rd

Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Course Fit Rank: 7th

Notes: I feel like Gary has semi-turned a corner after a really brutal stretch with 3 made cuts in his last 4 starts that includes a T5 and a T6 with a more consistent, albeit not perfect, APP and OTT game; I like his ability to hit low stingers if there is more wind than expected, and as one of the weaker putters, I like that these greens “should” be easier to put on than usual Bent/Bermuda… he should be well under 10% owned and while more volatile let’s remember he can compete in big events as a US Open winner and just needs to avoid getting into huge trouble and playing himself out of it with a triple or a quad

OTHERS I LIKE: Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, Matt Wallace, Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Thomas Pieters ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: I feel fortunate to have gotten the fade of Pieters right last week, but he struck the ball great and showed he still has massive distance and great accuracy off the tee; his last 2 starts at the PGA Champ are T23 and T6 and while he has very limited starts on the PGA Tour, and therefore limited SG data, he did play Puerto Rico (Coco Beach) earlier this year with a T15 finish and he’ll be low owned

2) Thomas Detry ($6,600) Projected Ownership: <1%

Quick Hits: Obviously a risk with limited PGA TOUR starts but Detry has been ultra-consistent on the Euro Tour with 7 straight made cuts including a T9 at the Omega Dubai (a strong field), T9 at the Qatar Masters, and he had a T13 finish at the Corales Punta Cana which is a different course but still along the coast similar to Kiawah… will be unowned so I’ll take 5-10% and be well overweight the field

3) Brendan Steele ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: I’m a sucker for Steele and he’s cooled off a bit with made cuts in his last 2 but a T70 and T77; however, he’s only 6500, no one is going to own him, and has made his last 10 cuts in a row which is more than enough at this price; he ranks 11th overall in the field in Course Fit with success at Honda (T3 this year, T4 last year) and I like taking the risk and hoping his long irons are locked in at low OWN%

4) Dean Burmester ($6,300) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Does just about all his playing on the Euro Tour, but his last 3 starts over there are T6/T4/1st and while more volatile than most in the field, which makes sense given the price, he has mega-distance as he ranks Top 5 in Euro Tour stats in Driving Distance and has played many of the Euro courses featuring Paspalum greens so I’ll take a risk at near the min price and low OWN% in GPPs

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Viktor Hovland

5) Patrick Reed

6)  Daniel Berger

7) Abraham Ancer

8) Paul Casey

9) Corey Conners

10) Matt Wallace

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course Fit this week

  1. Jordan Spieth
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Abraham Ancer
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Daniel Berger
  6. Jon Rahm
  7. Corey Conners
  8. Justin Thomas
  9. Webb Simpson
  10. Bryson DeChambeau
  11. Collin Morikawa
  12. Hideki Matsuyama
  13. Paul Casey
  14. Emiliano Grillo
  15. Keegan Bradley
  16. Xander Schauffele
  17. Sam Burns
  18. Patrick Reed
  19. Matt Fitzpatrick
  20. Sergio Garcia

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

Best Sportsbooks

More in Golf