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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 RBC Heritage DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Harbour Town GL, Hilton Head Island, SC

Fast Facts

  • Par 71; 7100 yards designed by Pete Dye
  • Slower Bermuda greens (11 on the stimp)
  • Very small greens (3700 sq. ft. on average)
  • Coastal style with a ton of trees, water hazards on every hole, and 54 bunkers
  • Field: 136 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
  • Average Cut: +2
  • Hitting fairways is essential
  • Wind can make the course much tougher and can be masked by the large amount of trees
  • Corollary Courses: Copperhead, TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, Waialae CC
  • Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Abraham Ancer, Ian Poulter, Tommy Fleetwood, Ryan Moore, Charles Howell III, J.T. Poston, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Course and Weather Notes: One of my favorite tournaments to watch every year as I love this course design and although this field isn’t “loaded,” there are definitely some really strong names here due in part to the large number of guys with an RBC sponsorship. This course doesn’t appear incredibly tough on the surface as it’s not very long and the greens don’t run that fast; however, missing the fairway here can be extremely penal with water everywhere, a ton of bunkers, and so many trees that even though the rough isn’t difficult to hit from, often times a missed fairway means you’re blocked by trees. Obviously, you want guys who hit fairways every week, but this week it’s especially crucial and with how small these greens are (some of the smallest on TOUR along with Pebble Beach), greens will be missed so a strong ARG/Scrambling game is key as well. I will look at the above corollary courses for strong course fits this week along with great long term driving accuracy and Bermuda putters. Good luck this week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: Approach Blend (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
  • SG: T2G
  • Fairways Gained
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Birdie or Better Gained
  • Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($10,700) Projected Ownership: 23%

Key Stats: 39th SG: APP/23rd T2G/49th Fairways Gained/16th SG: P/56th Opps./26th BoB/7th Scrambling

Form: 12th/28th/MC/6th

Course History: 1st/16th/5th/11th/66th/51st/2nd/52nd/14th

Notes: Almost no one has been more consistent than Webb at this course and after a strong showing at Augusta, he’s back on Bermuda, and his only MC since July 2020 came a few weeks ago at the PLAYERS; where I will most likely (and many others) start my cash game lineup

2) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 94th SG: APP/20th T2G/14th Fairways Gained/2nd SG: P/36th Opps./24th BoB/54th Scrambling

Form: 34th/18th/9th/10th/11th/5th/17th/MC

Course History: 14th/39th/14th/MC/MC/23rd

Notes: I didn’t have a ton of interest in Fitz last week as I thought it would be tough to contend with his shorter distance compared to his peers at similar price points, but this course seems like it would fit his game perfectly. He’s had a T14 in 2 of his last 3 starts here, in good form with 5 straight made cuts, on his best putting surface by far, and hits a ton of fairways

Fades

1) Will Zalatoris ($9,700) Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 18th SG: APP/3rd T2G/68th Fairways Gained/106th SG: P/19th Opps./8th BoB/105th Scrambling

Form: 2nd/28th/21st/10th/22nd/15th/55th/17th/7th

Course History: None

Notes: Willy Z is an amazing talent and is going to win a ton on TOUR… great poise, incredible ball striker, and clearly doesn’t fold under pressure; my main reason for the fade is ownership as I expect a big bump after everyone saw him come runner up at Augusta in his debut, but I’ll gamble on some fatigue here and although a very limited sample size, Zalatoris not being the best putter and pivot

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500) Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 13th SG: APP/14th T2G/53rd Fairways Gained/38th SG: P/5th Opps./20th BoB/78th Scrambling

Form: 18th/56th/MC/21st/22nd/6th/22nd/1st

Course History: 3rd/MC/29th

Notes: I’m not putting a ton of weight into course history here from 2020 as many guys were making their first start since the restart and the course surely played a little differently, along with the field, compared to years’ past; Hatton is great off the tee and can get hot with the irons, but his Scrambling is weak, which is essential here with how small the greens are at Harbour Town

 Favorite Pivot

1) Daniel Berger ($10,000) Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 22nd SG: APP/8th T2G/56th Fairways Gained/20th SG: P/52nd Opps./10th BoB/41st Scrambling

Form: MC/18th/9th/35th/1st/MC

Course History: 3rd/33rd

Notes: This is a “pivot” as I don’t love the lower owned guys in this range but I still expect Berger to have a decent amount of OWN%… probably a dumb narrative but Berger’s last win several weeks ago was right after a MC… run it back? Berger killed me last week, as he did to many, by missing the cut by one, but he’s still in great form in 2021, has made the cut both times here, and hits a ton of fairways to go along with his strong Approach play, as he’s gained in SG: APP in every tournament but one since September 2020… I like a bounce back here

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sergio Garcia ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 74th SG: APP/4th T2G/105th Fairways Gained/128th SG: P/40th Opps./38th BoB/15th Scrambling

Form: MC/5th/9th/32nd/MC/12th/6th

Course History: 5th

Notes: As is to be expected, Sergio’s short game let him down for the millionth time at Augusta as he missed the cut but I love this course fit for him as yes I’m not weighting last year’s history that much but he has played the course, he is one of the best ball strikers in the field, and has had a good amount of success at corollary courses (previous winner at TPC Sawgrass)

2) Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 49th SG: APP/26th T2G/38th Fairways Gained/73rd SG: P/44th Opps./3rd BoB/123rd Scrambling

Form: 6th/MC/21st/11th/MC/22nd/MC/37th

Course History: MC/33rd/16th

Notes: I rarely play Grillo these days but on a course that is focused on ball striking, hitting fairways, and small greens, I like him a lot here, especially at this price; albeit two of them in opposite field events, Grillo does have a T11/T21/T6 in 3 of his last 4 starts, with two of them being coastal/windy courses that could play similar to Harbour Town so let’s hope he can be even somewhat average with the flat stick and he could definitely be in the mix

3) Kevin Streelman ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 27th SG: APP/29th T2G/20th Fairways Gained/86th SG: P/15th Opps./13th BoB/108th Scrambling

Form: 9th/36th/MC/52nd/13th/22nd/37th/MC

Course History: MC/6th/7th

Notes: Streels has kind of cooled off over the last several tournaments, but continues to gain strokes OTT as he hits a ton of fairways, has gained strokes T2G in 5 of his last 6 tournaments, and although he MC last year, he finished T6/T7 in the previous 2 years with a T3 in 2013 and T17 in 2012… clearly likes this course and the price is low for the consistent floor and birdie upside he has as well

Fades

1) Si Woo Kim ($7,900) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 17th SG: APP/19th T2G/80th Fairways Gained/51st SG: P/31st Opps./64th BoB/26th Scrambling

Form: 12th/23rd/56th/9th/WD/MC/MC/50th/MC/1st

Course History: MC/MC/2nd/14th

Notes: Si Woo is definitely a Pete Dye specialist and can get nuclear at any time, but because of that narrative and his solid finish at the Masters (T12), I’ll fade the ownership here; he can get a bit wild off the tee if not locked in and Bermuda is by far his worst putting surface

2) Charley Hoffman ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 7th SG: APP/2nd T2G/75th Fairways Gained/23rd SG: P/3rd Opps./1st BoB/28th Scrambling

Form: 2nd/34th/17th/10th/52nd/7th/MC/WD/WD

Course History: MC/45th/23rd/MC/14th/64th/38th/6th/8th

Notes: Hoffman rates out really, really well in a stat model and similar to Zalatoris, I more view this as an ownership fade as he is definitely underpriced; his form is strong 6 straight made cuts but I do worry on these tighter fairways, he could struggle as historically he relies more on his distance compared to accuracy… plus I don’t want to play a potentially 20+% owned Charley Hoffman

Favorite Pivot

1) Branden Grace ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 76th SG: APP/55th T2G/71st Fairways Gained/47th SG: P/41st Opps./15th BoB/77th Scrambling

Form: 23rd/MC/26th/1st/20th/34th

Course History: 61st/61st/11th/1st/7th

Notes: I feel like prior winners normally get an auto bump but Grace seems to be going overlooked this week despite a win in Puerto Rico (yes, a weak field I know) about a month ago; his iron game has been, and usually is, more volatile than similar guys in this range, but he hits a TON of fairways, has a great around the green game, and although his putter can let him down, he can get hot with his “best” putting surface Bermuda

OTHERS I LIKE: Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Sam Burns, Lucas Glover

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Andrew Putnam ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Will rely a lot on his short game to make up for a volatile T2G game but he does rank 10th in the field in SG: P on Bermuda, 5th in Scrambling, and 34th in Fairways Gained… did miss his last 2 cuts but before that had a 4th/5th/7th in his previous 5 finishes… won’t be owned but high risk/high reward

2) Chase Seiffert ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Has been playing some pretty consistent golf but a 6700 guy with 4 straight cuts made with a T18/T15/T3 in that time frame; looks solid in stat models, as he’s Top 40 in the field T2G/SG: APP/Fairways Gained/Opportunities Gained/BoB and no worse than 50th or better in other categories; just needs an average putting week and he can hit huge value

3) Richy Werenski ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: His stats may look a little better due to his solid finishes in weaker fields but 29th in SG: APP/18th Opportunities Gained; missed his last 2 cuts but before that had made 6 cuts in a row that included a T22/T21/T4 and at this price we don’t need a T10 but rather a made cut for some upside

4) Patton Kizzire ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: A little confused by his price as he’s not an all-world talent but definitely better than names around him… Kizzire came T9 at the Honda Classic, is on by far his best putting surface in Bermuda, and ranks 47th T2G/38th SG: APP/31st SG: P on Ber/46th BoB

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson           

2) Daniel Berger

3) Corey Conners

4) Paul Casey

5)  Matthew Fitzpatrick

6) Abraham Ancer

7) Sergio Garcia

8) Kevin Kisner

9) Chris Kirk

10) Emiliano Grillo

11) Kevin Streelman

12) Lucas Glover

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

  1. Brian Harman
  2. Daniel Berger
  3. Webb Simpson
  4. Matthew Fitzpatrick
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Corey Conners
  7. Charley Hoffman
  8. Paul Casey
  9. Tyrrell Hatton
  10. Collin Morikawa
  11. Abraham Ancer
  12. Cameron Smith
  13. Branden Grace
  14. Kevin Streelman
  15. Dustin Johnson
  16. Will Zalatoris
  17. Si Woo Kim
  18. Sergio Garcia
  19. Billy Horschel
  20. Emiliano Grillo

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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