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Course: East Lake Country Club

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7346 yards
• Bermuda Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST)
• Field: 30 players; No cut with staggered leaderboard to start
• green size approx. 6100 sq. ft. (average)
• Donald Ross Design
• Hard to hit fairways: 55% here vs. TOUR average of 62%
• Corollary Courses: PGA National, Plainfield CC, Sedgefield CC, TPC Southwind
• Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Xander Schauffele, Ryan Palmer, Harris English

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 10-8; DK 8-10

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: N/A; I don’t really play cash in no cut events and certainly won’t play in a 30-man field

GPP: That was a weird GPP week in which my lineups seemed pretty far from cashing going into Sunday but Dahmen and Finau put my team on their back, each posting a 5 under round to shoot up the leaderboard and somehow get me to breakeven on the week despite not having any of the Top 3 in my lineup and having Tiger/Streelman who both finished at +11… Tiger was a disappointment as he continues to putt poorly, Justin Thomas played fine but not great, and Hideki was a stud around the greens but ultimately couldn’t keep up with the charges made by both DJ and Rahm. What a finish that tournament was, and it was great to watch despite not having a sweat in either the betting or DFS markets… onto a much shorter and concise article this week with only 30 guys and staggered pricing.

 

Course and Weather Notes: We’re back to a course with decent history as East Lake has hosted the last official tournament of the “season” (before a massive layoff of 3 days before the next season starts) and while guys can go low here, it is imperative to keep it in the fairway and be able to navigate typical Donald Ross undulating greens. The Bermuda greens run quite fast, over 12 on the stimp, and for the limited games I’m playing, I will definitely put a premium on guys who have accuracy over distance, have a strong birdie or better game, and also who have a solid course fit on the comp courses listed above.

This week I’m going to combine my DK article with my betting article as the field is very limited and most everyone will be owned in someway on top of the fact that these guys are here for a reason: they are all elite and all have an all-around strong game.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• Fairways Gained
• BoB Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

Sam’s Top Plays > 10K

Justin Thomas: $11,900 – Projected Ownership 28% and starts -7 (3 off the lead)

Stats: 7^th T2G/14^th SG: APP/21^st Fairways/10^th BoB/21^st Bogey Avoidance/15^th SG: P

Form: 25^th/49^th/37^th/1^st/18^th/2^nd/MC/8^th/10^th

Course History: 3^rd/7^th/2^nd/6^th

Notes: I still believe he’s the best player in the world and one of the few guys I think can track down Rahm/DJ and actually win this tournament after adjusting for the starting strokes; his irons are always elite having gained on APP in 6 straight tournaments, he’s gained T2G in 10 straight tournaments, and has won at 2 of the 4 comp courses I’m targeting this week (TPC Southwind and PGA National)… he will be popular, like most players will, but I think he has the highest win equity in this range

Webb Simpson: $11,000 – Projected Ownership 28% and starts -6 (4 off the lead)

Stats: 6^th T2G/11^th SG: APP/6^th Fairways/7^th BoB/1^st Bogey Avoidance/11^th SG: P

Form: 6^th/3^rd/37^th/12^th/MC/8^th/1^st/MC  

Course History: 16^th/4^th/13^th/23^rd/4^th/5^th/22^nd  

Notes: Webb on a Par 70 on Bermuda grass… doesn’t get more ideal than that; Webb is having an incredibly season and is the other guy in this range besides JT that I think can overcome the starting deficit; he plays Donald Ross and specifically Bermuda green courses extremely well and has gained T2G in every tournament since the restart except for 1 and while he lacks the distance compared to a lot of these studs, he keeps it in the fairways and has elite long iron play… he could win this if the putter stays hot like it has been for 2 months now

Fades: DJ simply because his price is absurd and Bryson because his game doesn’t look put together

Sam’s Top Plays 7-9.9K

Hideki Matsuyama: $9,300 – Projected Ownership 20% and starts -4 (6 off the lead)

Stats: 4^th T2G/9^th SG: APP/29^th Fairways/18^th BoB/8^th Bogey Avoidance/30^th SG: P

Form: 3^rd/29^th/22^nd/20^th/MC/22^nd/21^st/MC

Course History: 9^th/4^th/26^th/5^th/12^th/22^nd  

Notes: For these guys starting more than 5 shots back they will obviously need two things to happen: 1) the guys up top to either stall or just have middling rounds of 1 or 2 under par and 2) they need a round or 2 where they go uber low and we’ve seen Hideki do that in these no cut events; no one is shocked to see him ranked 30^th of 30 in SG: putting but he is a good scrambler and while I don’t expect him to gain 6.1 strokes ARG like last week again, he can get HOT and is in great form

Scottie Scheffler: $7,900 – Projected Ownership 21% and starts -2 (8 off the lead)

Stats: 3^rd T2G/13^th SG: APP/9^th Fairways/2^nd BoB/23^rd Bogey Avoidance/29^th SG: P

Form: 20^th/4^th/4^th/15^th/22^nd/MC/MC/MC/55^th  

Course History: None  

Notes: A debutant to the TOUR Champ! Man Scottie has been good the last 5 tournaments, gaining 4 or more strokes T2G in each, gaining on APP in all 5, and has gained in SG: OTT in every tourney since February… this is getting to the range where not impossible, but seems unlikely these guys can win so we want them to pay off value for DK purposes… he may not win the $15 million up top but he has very high upside for DK Scoring

Tyrrell Hatton: $7,000 – Projected Ownership 25% and starts -2 (8 off the lead)

Stats: 14^th T2G/4^th SG: APP/17^th Fairways/8^th BoB/27^th Bogey Avoidance/13^th SG: P

Form: 16^th/25^th/MC/69^th/5^th/3^rd   

Course History: None  

Notes: Not long ago Hatton was playing extremely well and was somewhat chalky but then lost almost 4 strokes putting at the PGA Champ despite ball striking very well and many, including myself, jumped off; he’s historically a great Bermuda greens putter, has finished T25 or better the last 2 tournaments, and has gained over 4 strokes T2G in each of those events; similar to Hideki, he can get scorching hot and rattle off a ton of birdies and starting this low he’ll need to… very upside at only 7k

Fades: Tony Finau – have to differentiate somewhere to not get duped in a 30 man field and he should be around 35% owned… only gained 0.6 strokes on APP last week and almost 5 strokes putting.

Brendon Todd – if he ever misses a putt or a fairway he will be screwed and despite an awesome season I don’t think he’s the same caliber as a lot of these guys around him

Sam’s Top Plays < 7K

Kevin Kisner: $6,800 – Projected Ownership 24% and starts -1 (9 off the lead)

Stats: 15^th SG: T2G/5^th SG: APP/4^th Fairways/12^th BoB/6^th Bogey Avoidance/9^th SG: P

Form: 25^th/4^th/3^rd/19^th/25^th/MC/3^rd/MC/MC/29^th  

Course History: 9^th/3^rd/26^th/28^th   

Notes: Don’t think he has much win equity at all, but he’s an elite putter and has gained strokes T2G and on APP in each of his last 4 tournaments with a T25, 4^th, 3^rd, and T19… he’s playing great right now and if that putter stays hot, he can make a lot of birdies and return a lot of value at only 6800… last week he had a poor last round which hurt his finish, but he’s finished T10 his last 2 starts at East Lake

Ryan Palmer: $5,400 – Projected Ownership 21% and starts -1 (9 off the lead)

Stats: 9^th T2G/7^th SG: APP/20^th Fairways/15^th BoB/19^th Bogey Avoidance/23^rd SG: P

Form: 40^th/8^th/43^rd/15^th/2^nd/MC/MC/8^th/MC  

Course History: 7^th (2014)/28^th (2010)   

Notes: I think Palmer could be one of the only true “pivots” in the field as I expect Horschel to garner 30+% ownership while Palmer despite not playing here since 2014, does have course experience and his T2G and APP game have been awesome the last several weeks, as he’s gained T2G in 5 straight and on APP in 4 of his last 5… historically not a great putter, Bermuda is the only surface where he gains strokes putting and while I don’t expect him to contend, at only 5400, he can provide excellent value and allow you to jam in 2 studs up top and not get duped with Horschel

Fades: I will probably fade most of this range with the exception of Kisner/Palmer/Horschel/Niemann as the others can be very inconsistent and I think not going stars/scrubs can be a possible contrarian route

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 10% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 15% Course History

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Jon Rahm
3. Webb Simpson
4. Kevin Kisner
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Daniel Berger
7. Tony Finau
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Tyrrell Hatton
10. Hideki Matsuyama

 

Betting

Value Bets: (with starting strokes included)

Webb Simpson – 10/1 (2 Units)

Tyrrell Hatton – 110/1 (0.5 Units)

Ryan Palmer Top 10 – 6/1 (1.5 Units)

 

Value Bets: (with starting strokes not included)

Daniel Berger – 16/1 (1 Unit)

Scottie Scheffler – 28/1 (1 Unit)