Weekly Primer: Wells Fargo Championship
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Wells Fargo Championship Recap
Last year, Jason Day collected his 12th career victory as he finished the week at -12 and cleared the field by two strokes. Nick Watney and Aaron Wise tied for second at -10 with Bryson DeChambeau finishing solo fourth a three-way tie for fifth with Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, and Peter Uihlein. It wasn’t smooth sailing to the finish for Day as he bogeyed two of his last three holes heading to the 16th hole. He bounced back with a birdie at 16 and then nearly aced the 17th hole. Day parred the 18th and finished with a final round 69 and hoisted the trophy.
Course Preview
Dates: May 2-5
Where: Charlotte, North Carolina
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Architect: George Cobb (1961); Renovated by Tom Fazio (2016)
Par/Yards: Par 71; 7,554 yards
Greens: Bermuda overseeded with Poa
Fairways/Rough: Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass
Field: 156
Cut: Top 70 and ties after 36 holes
Defending Champion: Jason Day
Purse: $7,900,000 ($1,422,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Withdrawals: none as of 5/1
One of the famous course nicknames in all of golf is the “Green Mile” that consists of the 16th, 17th, and 18th holes at Quail Hollow. The Par 4 16th was made even more difficult after Tom Fazio architected the hole where the green was moved over 80 yards to the left of the original green that brought water more in play and made the second approach shot even more demanding. Hitting the green in 16 is truly important as any other miss of the green could easily bring double bogey into play. The 17th hole is, in my opinion, one of the most daunting Par 3s on tour. The Island Green at TPC Sawgrass is, no doubt, more iconic but usually measures anywhere from 120-150 yards where golfers are able to hit a wedge to the green. The 17th at Quail Hollow is nearly an island green but measures out to 225 yards where golfers are hitting long irons into the green. Jason Day made it look easy in the final round last year but if the wind picks up and pins are tucked, then big numbers can come into play here as well. Finally, the 18th hole presents its own challenges as every approach shot will be subject to the water hazard that lines both sides of the green. David Toms won the 2003 Wells Fargo Championship despite quadruple-bogeying this 18th hole. You won’t see too many golfers be able to win with an 8 on the card so expect the golfers to be tested this week on the “Green Mile.”
The course sits on 26 acres of fairway and 120 acres of rough. It is littered with 61 bunkers and 4 water hazards. Quail Hollow played as the 5th most difficult course on tour last year.
Weather Outlook
Winds look to remain fairly calm and below 10 mph with low chances of rain. There may be a delay Sunday morning before the final round but, overall, looks like great weather for this week. There are rain chances each day which could make this course play even longer if the fairways are wet which adds more value to the bombers that you may already be targeting for your DFS lines this week.
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past.
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- Driving Distance
- Putting: BoB %
- Par 4s Gained
- Par 5s Gained
- Proximity from 175-200 yards
- Bogey Avoidance
The Picks
$10,000+ Range
The Pick: Rory McIlroy—$11,800
Also Consider: Rickie Fowler—$10,600
$9,000 Range
The Pick: Tony Finau—$9,300
Also Consider: Gary Woodland—$9,000
$8,000 Range
The Pick: Charles Howell III—$8,400
Also Consider: Sungjae Im—$8,600; Jhonattan Vegas—$8,200
$7,000 Range
The Pick: Wyndham Clark—$7,400
Also Consider: Scott Stallings—$7,300; Matt Jones—$7,200; and Nick Watney—$7,600
Below $7,000 Range
The Pick: Brian Harman—$6,800
Also Consider: Adam Schenk—$6,700; Johnson Wagner—$6,700; Nate Lashley—$6,200; and Jason Dufner $6,700
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
