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Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 AT&T Pro-AM DraftKings Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Pebble Beach/Monterey Peninsula/Spyglass Hill

Fast Facts

  • 3 Course Rotation with all 3 courses <7000 yards; 2 Par 72s/1 Par 71
  • Similar to the American Express, players play 3 different courses THU-SAT before a cut
  • Pebble is the Host Course and players making the cut play there on Sunday
  • All POA greens; Pebble Greens are 3500 Sq. ft. on average (SMALLEST ON TOUR)
  • Field: 156 players; Top 60 and ties make the cut after Round 3
  • Average Cut around -5
  • Average winning score around -16 to -18
  • Corollary Courses: None but look for California courses and/or small greens (Harbour Town)
  • Course Fit Targets: Brandt Snedker, Kevin Kisner, Jimmy Walker, Vaughn Taylor, Brian Gay

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 2-2; DK 1-3

GPP Results – See table below

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.).

Cash: Welcome back to the “Sam overthinks and goes contrarian in cash and gets killed” portion of the write-up and I’m glad to have you back. When I was building my cash team last week I felt pretty locked in to 3 guys: Hideki/Sungjae/Vaughn Taylor. I liked Hideki because of his obvious course history, Sungjae because he’s so consistent and I think very close to a win, and Vaughn because he was a super cheap value that I thought was also very consistent. Hideki ended up fine I guess as he did make the cut and then went several under the weekend to not KILL you but not help too much. Sungjae was the opposite in which he was a few under and then faded on the weekend and Vaughn? Well Vaughn shot +7 on Thursday. As for the other 3, I really liked how Scheffler set up as he is such an elite birdie maker and I thought it was a great bounce back spot for him but unfortunately despite his usual strong T2G and APP game, he had a terrible putting and scrambling week that had him miss the cut on the number. Joel Dahmen was my 5th piece as I felt he was another cut maker with upside who was too cheap for the field and he actually had a heroic last 2 holes in which he went eagle/birdie to make the cut but unfortunately was battling an illness so he WD after Round 3 in which he shot a few over. Lastly, Corey Conners was my favorite play of the week as I played him in cash and my main lineup, but he once again struggled around the greens and with his putting to have a middling T45 finish. While I don’t regret liking any of those players, my process was off here as I now have tried a few weeks in a row to go in a different direction and avoid the obvious plays. For example, I loved Webb last week and played him on several tournament teams but played Hideki over him… no rhyme or reason. I really liked Tom Hoge’s form and how he set up but faded due to “he might be chalky,” which was just a nonsense decision. There isn’t a reason to play 3 contrarian plays on a team in general let alone a cash team so that’s a process error that I need to get over despite my normal contrarian nature of DFS builds.

GPP: I already rambled above but in this lineup I went with Justin Thomas/Wolff/Conners/English/Ryan Moore/Vaughn. You know how a few went and it was amazing to see JT finish with the most casual T3 of all time but Wolff imploded on Thursday and Moore imploded on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning so that team was sunk as well. I had a lot of confidence in Wolff last week as I was weighting SG: OTT a ton, which he did gain 2.5 strokes, but he putted terrible and lost over 2 strokes T2G. As with my cash teams, I think having a lot of confidence in 3-4 core plays and playing them in both cash/main GPP lineups will be important moving forward.

 

Course and Weather Notes: Thank god we’re to the last pro-am/course rotation event of the year. This tournament truly sucks as all 156 players in the field have an amateur partner that will be someone like Larry the Cable Guy, Bill Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, or other celebrities that makes for 6+ hour rounds and horrendous TV coverage. All guys play at Pebble 1 day, Monterey Peninsula 1 day, and Spyglass Hill 1 day before the Top 60 and ties move to Pebble for the last day. All these courses are short and scorable in the right conditions; however, with Monterey and Pebble in particular, if the winds pick up you can see some VERY high scores… Target wedge players and strong POA putters and if playing showdown, stack the Monterey Course which at least 15-20% of DFS players won’t do… always an edge.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

  • SG: T2G
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 75-125 yards)
  • BoB Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling
  • SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,900) Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 1st T2G/1st SG: APP/1st BoB Gained/9th GIRs Gained/26th ARG & Scrambling/45th SG: P

Form: 34th/4th/17th

History: 35th/48th

Notes: I think he will end up as the least owned between DJ/Casey/Day and him and I like his stats by far the best… not a lot of course history to speak of which is the only knock but he strikes it so well that I love him as the core play this week up top

2) Brandt Snedeker ($10,100) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 25th T2G/20th SG: APP/21st BoB Gained/42nd GIRs Gained/3rd ARG & Scrambling/4th SG: P

Form: MC/3rd/12th

History: MC/20th/4th/35th/1st/MC/1st/MC/21st

Notes: Elite history here and thrives on these POA greens; just like I went back to JT after a MC I think I’ll do the same and hope he doesn’t end up as chalky as I’m projecting here… he has one of the best all-around short games on TOUR that keeps him in the mix no matter what

Fades

1) Jason Day ($10,300) Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 66th T2G/119th SG: APP/44th BoB Gained/87th GIRs Gained/18th ARG & Scrambling/14th SG: P

Form: 16th

History: 4th/2nd/5th/11th/4th/MC/6th

Notes: That course history is nothing short of insane but I can’t play everyone up here and the sub 7k range this week is ROUGH… Day has still only played 1 tournament off of his injury and at this price to really kill me he needs to finish Top 5 I think and I’ll take the risk that he doesn’t with his lack of rounds he’s played in the last few months

2) Viktor Hovland ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 2nd T2G/6th SG: APP/39th BoB Gained/37th GIRs Gained/136th ARG & Scrambling/105th SG: P

Form: MC/23rd/MC/MC

History: None

Notes: Faded him last week at a cheaper price and I’ll do it again here as I don’t think this is the right set up for him; further, he has played here before and either finished highly or won an Amateur event which is impressive but I don’t think his form or lack of ability around the greens warrants this price…

Favorite Pivot

1) Jordan Spieth ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 98th T2G/106th SG: APP/79th BoB Gained/139th GIRs Gained/40th ARG & Scrambling/26th SG: P

Form: 16th/55th/MC

History: 45th/20th/1st/21st/7th/4th/22nd

Notes: Well here we are… our pivot; this is kind of a “de facto” pivot as I have every guy above 9K projected for over 10% ownership but Jordan is now playing to stay in the Top 50 and qualify for Mexico, he’s playing to get some confidence back and is returning to a place where he’s made all 7 cuts and has a win and 2 Top 10s… he has gained T2G in his last 2 events at least?

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Russell Knox ($8,600) Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 6th T2G/7th SG: APP/11th BoB Gained/4th GIRs Gained/14th ARG & Scrambling/49th SG: P

Form: 16th/21st/37th/32nd/20th/33rd

History: 14th/15th/MC/27th/28th/MC

Notes: Hasn’t exactly threatened for a win here or in his last several starts but he’s been consistent as ever and as you’ll see above is ranked 14th or better in 5 of my 6 key stats this week and I know if it gets windy and he needs to scramble, he can keep himself in the mix… love him for a balanced build

2) Kevin Kisner ($8,500) Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 22nd T2G/25th SG: APP/52nd BoB Gained/26th GIRs Gained/38th ARG & Scrambling/28th SG: P

Form: MC/4th/14th/7th/MC/76th

History: 28th/MC/10th/MC/MC/MC/39th

Notes: With the layout of this course I was surprised to see that Kisner doesn’t have more success here but I hope it keeps his ownership down… a normally great putter, he has lost strokes putting in 3 straight tournaments, which I think is due for some positive regression if we look at his last 20 tournaments and that he gains an average of a stroke per tournament… the ultimate grinder, I love him to contend here

3) Cameron Tringale ($7,000) Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 8th T2G/3rd SG: APP/30th BoB Gained/29th GIRs Gained/33rd ARG & Scrambling/97th SG: P

Form: MC/49th/43rd/5th/20th/66th

History: 53rd/47th/MC/13th/22nd/61st/MC/MC

Notes: Pops for me just about every week with his stats but he needs to just find 4 consistent days… at only 7K I’ll take the plunge with Tringale again as he’s played this event a lot and knows the course, he can rack up a ton of birdies if the putter gets working; he’s gained T2G in 7 of his last 8 events and 13 of his last 15
Fades

1) Scott Piercy ($7,800) Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 24th T2G/41st SG: APP/101st BoB Gained/66th GIRs Gained/91st ARG & Scrambling/153rd SG: P

Form: 6th/61st/45th/26th

History: 10th/20th/55th/MC/MC

Notes: Piercy is always solid T2G and I was considering adding him to my pool but when you look at his finish last week, he gained 2 strokes putting (very rare), the rest of his recent finishes are middling, he has the makings of a chalky 7k play and he’s on his worst putting surface… all interest has been lost

2) Jimmy Walker ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 57th T2G/13th SG: APP/46th BoB Gained/50th GIRs Gained/70th ARG & Scrambling/72nd SG: P

Form: 63rd/30th/MC/45th

History: MC/8th/55th/11th/21st/1st/3rd/9th/9th/MC

Notes: Don’t blame anyone for wanting to play him here as he’s trending in the right direction having gained on APP in his last 4 events and he obviously has elite course history, but I tend to fade low priced chalk and I think I would rather take shots on guys around him like Perez/Kang/Long/Streelman/Zhang

Favorite Pivot

1) Nick Watney ($7,300) Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 19th T2G/8th SG: APP/33rd BoB Gained/7th GIRs Gained/54th ARG & Scrambling/118th SG: P

Form: MC/29th/14th/MC

History: MC/47th/14th/2nd/MC/MC/40th/6th/27th

Notes: Both his recent form and course history are pretty volatile so I wouldn’t recommend Watney for a cash game but it’s worth noting that he’s gained T2G 7 straight tournaments and gained on APP in his last 4 while having a usually up and down putter… Poa isn’t his best surface but if we can get a cheap guy to make the cut and give us a Top 20 or higher at 5% or so ownership we’ll take it

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Brian Stuard ($6,900) Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: 20th T2G/11th SG: APP/5th ARG & Scrambling/fallen out of form slightly/CH is average

2) Tyler Duncan ($6,500) Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: 76th T2G/31st SG: APP/23rd GIRs Gained/very streaky but makes birdies/form is bad after a win in the fall swing season

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Paul Casey

3) Russell Knox

4) Adam Hadwin

5) Tom Hoge

6) Jim Furyk

7) Vaughn Taylor

8) Cameron Tringale

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Brandt Snedeker
  2. Paul Casey
  3. Kevin Kisner
  4. Tom Hoge
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Vaughn Taylor
  7. Russell Knox
  8. Graeme McDowell
  9. Max Homa
  10. Cameron Tringale
  11. Daniel Berger
  12. Branden Grace
  13. Matthew Fitzpatrick
  14. Adam Long
  15. Cameron Champ

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Jason Day

Dustin Johnson

Brandt Snedeker

Phil Mickelson

Graeme McDowell

OAD Pivots

Jordan Spieth

Kevin Kisner

Alex Noren

Adam Hadwin

Kevin Na

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