Weekly Primer: Arnold Palmer Invitational
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rory McIlroy was able to overcome a two-shot deficit on Sunday that lead to a three shot victory over Bryson DeChambeau. Justin Rose finished solo third, Henrik Stenson solo fourth, and Ryan Moore and Tiger Woods tied for fifth. Rory shot a 64 in his final round that included birdies on five of his last six holes. This snapped an 18-month winless drought for Rory. Coincidentally, the last time Rory won was September 25, 2016, which was the day that Arnold Palmer passed away.
Course Preview
Dates: March 7-10
Where: Orlando, Florida
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Architect: Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009)
Par/Yards: Par 71; 7,345 yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Fairways/Rough: Celebration Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass /TifSport Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass
Field: 140 golfers; Top 70 and ties make the cut
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
Purse: $9,100,000 ($1,638,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 500 points to the winner
Past Champions in Field: Robert Gamez, Phil Mickelson, Ernie ELs, Tim Herron, Vijay Singh, Martin Laird, Matt Every, Jason Day, March Leishman, Rory McIlroy
Withdrawals: Tiger Woods, Charl Schwartzel, Talor Gooch
Bay Hill is known for its difficulty. It will not be as difficult as the course last week but still presents many challenges throughout 18 holes that measures around 7,300 yards and consists of 84 bunkers and 8 water hazards. The longer course means that players will have to be accurate off the tee and then be able to hit approach shots from 200 yards and beyond. The approach shots from 200 are overwhelmingly the most common distance on a majority of approach shots at Bay Hill since five of the Par 4s will play at a distance between 450-500 yards. Ability to score on the Par 5s will also be crucial this week. The 16th hole tips out around 511 yards so players will have plenty of looks at eagle as they finish their rounds that could change the outcome of the tournament come Sunday.
Weather Outlook
The weather this week looks ideal and optimal conditions for a great tournament. Highs in the 60s and 70s with almost no chance of rain and manageable wind conditions.
Official World Golf Rankings: OWGR Top 50 in the Field
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Approach
- Proximity 200+ Yards
- Birdie-or-Better Percentage
- SG: Putting on Bermuda
- Par 5s Gained
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past.
- Rory McIlroy
- Justin Rose
- Rickie Fowler
- Jason Day
- Marc Leishman
- Francesco Molinari
- Henrik Stenson
- Zach Johnson
- Adam Hadwin
- Matt Every
- Kevin Na
- Kyle Stanley
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Chris Kirk
- Patrick Rodgers
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham, Zach Johnson at the John Deere, Jordan Spieth at the Master’s, Bubba Watson at any course that he has won, etc. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
The Picks
Justin Rose—$10,700
I was looking to play Tiger Woods this week but after his withdrawal I will be looking at Justin Rose in this range for this week. Probably the most consistent golfer in the world and a guy that always seems to finish Top 10 even when he doesn’t seem to playing all that well. He ranks 4th in my model. He has plenty of length to make the long approach shots more manageable and ranks Top 10 in approach over the last 50 rounds.
- Also Consider: Rickie Fowler—$10,400
Hideki Matsuyama—$9,300
There is an interesting combination here in this range. You have Hideki that can hit greens and is ranking 1st in the last 24 and 50 rounds in approach but is 113th and 104th in putting over that same span. Then you have Jason Day that is 64th and 83rd in approach over the last 24 and 50 rounds but is 3rd and 10th in putting over the course of the last 24 and 50 rounds, respectively. I think it depends on which stat you consider to be more important. At $600 cheaper I am leaning to Matsuyama especially at a ball striker course like Bay Hill. Hideki also ranks 2nd in proximity from 200+ over the last 50 rounds. As long as he is on top of his game, he should have plenty of scoring opportunities.
- Also Consider: Jason Day—$9,900
Jason Day—$8,100
I would feel a lot more confident in this pick if he was in any type of decent form but Henrik Stenson has been struggling to just make the cut over his last several tournaments. This week, he comes to a course that he appears to be a great fit for. Always known for his ball-striking, Stenson ranks 3rd in proximity from 200+ and 5th in approach over the last 50 rounds. I think a lot of people will still be fading him just based on recent from but he did finish 4th here last year and one has to believe that he will have to come around soon before his pricing goes back up to above $9,000.
- Also Consider: Jason Kokrak—$8,300, Keegan Bradely—$8,400
Rafa Cabrera Bello—$7,500
I will be heavy on Rafa Cabrera Bello this week. Once again, this seems like a course that he would perform well at considering the way he is able to score and avoid high numbers when water hazards and bunkers come into play. He might be chalky but he ranks 10th in proximity from 200+ over the last 24 rounds and 7th and 12th in putting on Bermuda over the last 24 and 50 rounds, respectively.
- Also Consider: Cameron Champ—$7,600, Zach Johnson—$7,700
Nate Lashley—$6,900
Nate Lashley is my final play as he ranks out 6th in my model. He is coming off a T-8 finish at the Puerto Rico Open and ranks 1st in Proximity over the last 24 and 50 rounds. He can score on Par 5s and has an above-average approach game. At sub-$7k you need a guy that will make the cut and that gives you Top 20 upside. Lashley fits this mold.
Also Consider: Hudson Swafford—$6,500, Sam Ryder—$6,700, Vaughn Taylor—$6,500
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
